XBTV’s Leverage Plays: Pick 4 for June 4th, 2016 at Santa Anita Park

Below is my Pick 4 ticket for June 4th at Santa Anita Park. As always, the ticket is less than $20.

Race 8:

Broken Up (#10, 6-1) is one of only two horses in this race with a win on the turf. He cuts back in distance, adds blinkers and switches to Edward Freeman, who is clicking at 30% at the current meet.

Nat’s Nation (#2, 4-1) is the other horse in the race with a win on the turf and the only one to do so down the hill. He defeated straight maiden Cal-Breds last time out, but fits this cozy condition, because he was entered for $40,000 three starts back.

Schillairess (#11, 7-2) is a complete wild card in this spot. As a first-time gelding, he makes his first start in almost a year, first off the claim for Peter Miller. He is also making his initial start on turf after romping in a maiden claim on the dirt in his debut. He is bred for the turf and has too many positives to throw out despite the questions he must answer.

Race 9:

Jaw Dropper (#10, 4-1) goes from the dreaded rail to a cozy outside draw and shortens from 6 ½ to 5 ½ furlongs after showing speed in his debut. He should have a much better trip today and wheels back quickly off of a highly-rated maiden race that will likely turn out to be very live.

Alley Boss (#7, 12-1) looks like a dangerous sleeper first-time out. He is by Twirling Candy, who is an outstanding 20% with debut runners. This colt posted a blazing 4 furlong work in :45.40 at Turf Paradise before recording another 4 furlong work on the deep San Louis Ray Downs training track in :46.60. He has the speed to make the lead and stick at this short distance and Scott Stevens sees fit to come into town to ride.

Americanize (#2, 6-1) is working fast for Bob Baffert who can always have a horse ready to fire first-time out. His sire, Concord Point, clicks at 17% with debut runners, his mother was a grade 2 SP dam and his sibling, Seventh Street, captured a grade 1. He has the breeding to be any kind.

Race 10:

Storm Coming Thru (#9, 8-1) is one of two geldings for Doug O’Neill at a nice square price in a race where the favorites appear vulnerable. Take a look at Storm Comin Thru’s two dirt starts with blinkers. He romped home in the slop on January 31st and then ran a competitive fourth at this level on February 15th after dueling on the lead in a race that featured three next out winners. After a subpar race last time out on the turf, there is no panicky drop and Flavien Prat retains the mount, which are both positive signs. Look for this gelding to sit right off of Carlsbad Mountain and Ike Walker and get first run on the closers.

Ike Walker (#8, 6-1) is also trained by O’Neill and could be sitting on a big race. He was getting really good at the end of last year before being overmatched in some tricky spots this year. His last start, a second to LRC course specialist Fly Lexis Fly, sets him up well to return to the winner circle in a spot more suitable to his strengths.

Race 11:

Tristan’s Trilogy (#1, 6-1) ran too good to lose in the Singletary Stakes after making up ground late on Arcuate, who had a perfect trip as a heavy favorite. He is facing older for the first-time, which is a difficult assignment, but he is beaming with upside. This $530,000 purchase has learned how to rate and has proven to be a much more effective horse coming from off the pace.

Hobbits Hero (#8, 5-2) just won a 2x allowance, but still somehow qualifies for the 1x allowance that he runs in today without having to be entered for a claim. He is 7 for 10 at Santa Anita, 6 for 9 at the distance, has three wins in a row and has speed figures that tower over this field. He is an obvious must-use at a short price, but I cannot single him due to the grueling race that he ran just three weeks ago.

Pick 4 Ticket:  2,10,11/ 2,7,10 / 8,9 / 1,8 = $18

-Padraic Manocchio

XBTV’s Leverage Plays: Pick 4 for June 4th, 2016 at Santa Anita Park