The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, August 13, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Empire Ruler; 4-Hard Arch; 7-Rafter One
Forecast: Empire Ruler stretches out for the first time in his second off a layoff for Ellis (excellent stats with both angles) and seems primed for a big effort. Not sure what to make of Talamo (Ellis’ son-in-law) jumping off to ride Topgallant but in any case Bejarano should fit this colt just fine. Hopefully, he’ll let him run out of there to gain a favorable ground-saving, mid-pack position. Hard Arch has a race two back that charts very well with these but his most recent outing as the favorite in a slightly tougher spot was disappointing. He’s reunited with Gonzalez, who has gotten run out of him in the past, so maybe he can bounce back. Rafter One switches to Pedroza and may try gate-to-wire tactics after being fanned out of the race from a poor outside draw in his most recent outing. The Pender-trained colt is quick enough to get over and make the running and could get brave if he can establish the pace without pressure.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: X
Single: 2-My Golden One
Forecast: My Golden One has little to beat in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimer and needs only to repeat his runner-up effort at Los Alamitos (he was more than seven clear of the rest) to handle this assignment. The Medaglia d’Oro gelding makes a favorable rider switch to Nakatani and looks more than capable of producing the last run in his first start since joining the Freeman barn. At 2-1 on the morning line but likely to go lower, he’s a short price rolling exotic single for us.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Secreto Primero; 2-Taima the Hawk; 4-Bottle Rocket; 5-County Lineman
Forecast: This chaotic five furlong turf scramble has a number of possibilities and requires a significant spread in rolling exotic play. County Lineman is partial to the Del Mar lawn but is shortening to five furlongs following a nice two-turn score here last month. The trip might be too sharp for him but the Cerin-trained gelding obviously is in peak form and will be tough to contain if he can secure a clear path from the head of the lane to the wire. Taima the Hawk is most comfortable as a turf sprinter and should get back on track while returning to the lawn. However, like County Lineman, he’s likely to get outrun early and will need some luck when he commences his rally into the lane. Bottle Rocket is a course specialist being wheeled back in a week by Stute, a not-uncommon move by this outfit. He’s yet another who lacks good gate quickness and will need some help up front, but a repeat of his most recent race – a strong runner-up against similar rivals – puts him in the picture. Secreto Primero has two fast speed figures over this course and distance last year and could easily regain that form from his good inside draw. The race flow of the race could land him in an ideal second-flight position and allow him to get a jump on the main contenders from behind.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 9-Jonny Be Bueno; 10-Soul Streit
Forecast: Jonny Be Bueno and Soul Streit are two fast-working first-timers that appear cranked up for big efforts, and based on workouts may be more talented than the known element in this abbreviated maiden sprint for juveniles. Jonny Be Bueno, an $80,000 OBS April purchase, previewed impressively at the sale and has looked even better since joining the Doug O’Neill barn. A gate work last week was accomplished with considerable ease and gives indication that this colt form the first crop of Rattlesnake Bridge has plenty of talent. Soul Streit has done plenty right for Baffert in the a.m., and the presence of Mike Smith in the saddle leads one to believe this son of Maclean’s Music is very well regarded. We’ll try to get by using just these two, with ‘Bueno, at 8-1 on the morning line, deserving of strong consideration in the straight pool.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Little Juanito; 7-Red Lightning
Forecast: Red Lightning and Little Juanito finished two-three in a highly-rated maiden sprint over this track last month and they meet again as the obvious main contention. ‘Lightning finished almost two lengths clear of ‘Juanito in that July 23 affair but the latter adds blinkers for the first time today and that equipment change could bring the two together. The newcomers don’t inspire, so let’s use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Red Lightning on top.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-Bendable; 3-Skye Diamonds; 4-Constellation
Forecast: Any one of these three outstanding sprinting distaffers are capable of winning the Rancho Bernardo, though in her present form Skye Diamonds might deserve the edge after just defeating Constellation at this extended sprint distance at Los Alamitos. Constellation is the quickest of the three, but the lightly-raced but extremely talented Bendable has been training superbly over the Del Mar main track and seems prepared to produce a career top effort. Too close to call, so we’ll just watch and enjoy.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Lake Time; 6-Tooreen Dancer; 8-Spooky Woods
Forecast: Spooky Woods finished an excellent third in the Summertime Oaks-G2 while earning a career top number and today returns to the first-level allowance ranks while trying grass for the first time. A good recent workout over the local lawn provides evidence that she’ll handle the surface switch just fine and in a race with just one other committed front runner (Painting Corners) she’ll probably draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position. Tooreen Dancer made a huge, premature wide move to loom a threat in her U.S. debut before losing her punch late; she’ll get a more patient ride today with the switch to Desormeaux and with that effort behind her the Irish-bred filly should produce a significant forward move. Lake Time is stretching out for the first time and we suspect she’ll enjoy both the trip and the new surface. At 12-1 on the morning line she’s worth tossing in somewhere.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Tribal Jewel; 2-Stringent; 5-Brimstoned
Forecast: This is another difficult affair with a number of possibilities. Stringent had a nice sprint tune-up over the track last month and should be fitter and tougher today with the one-level class drop and the stretch out in trip. Brimstoned may have found nine furlongs a bit too far in his last start but shortens up a half-furlong and returns his favorite surface, the Del Mar main track. He should draft into a good second flight position and have every chance at 12-1 on the morning line. Tribal Jewel doesn’t have the healthiest of patterns – he’s been away for more than two months and is dropping a notch despite coming off a game win – but it’s hard to ignore his local record (five wins in eight starts) and his consistency (in the money in 33 of 48 career starts).
RACE 9: Post 6:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Gia Lula; 5-Ladybug; 7-Cinnamon Twist; 10-Dawn Traveller
Forecast: Yet another highly-contentious and challenging event, this one for juvenile fillies over a mile on turf. You can make a strong case for at least half the field. Cinnamon Twist brought $200,000 in Ocala in April (she previewed in 10 seconds flat and looked very good) and has continued to impress in the a.m. since arriving in California. She’s certainly better than her morning line of 12-1 gives her credit for. Stablemate Dawn Traveller finished a good fourth in a 15-runner field in her debut at The Curragh in late May and that performance, if repeated, makes her a strong fit. Ladybug failed to run to her good works in her sprint debut but remains well regarded and seems likely to improve a bunch today under conditions that she should enjoy. Gia Lula has moderate numbers in two starts but she’s a two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out play from a good post and with a strong turf pedigree top and bottom.
Sunday, August 13, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Gobi; 5-Leah’s Dream; 6-Friend of Liberty
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Critique; 9-Miss Mo Mentum
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-She’s a True Beauty; 4-Jules N Rome; 6-C Islandsurprise
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: C
Use: 4-Control Group; 9-Smarty Kitten; 10-Arbitrator
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Devilry; 3-Dwizard; 7-My Boy Tate
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B
Single: 3-Zippity Zoo
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Galileo’s Song; 2-Pas de Soucis; 3-Earring
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Mo Diddley; 4-Barry Lee; 9-Copper Bullet
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-First Appeal; 9-Noble Freud
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Cape Angel; 3-Strong Side; 4-Praise the Moon