The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Saturday, August 5, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Soul Sound; 8-Anchor Baby
Forecast: Anchor Baby ran a bit better than the line will show in her debut and seems likely to produce a significant forward move today for Baffert, whose stats with second-time starters always have been strong. She’ll have every chance to stalk and pounce from her cozy outside draw. Soul Sound surfaces in a claimer for the first time, is a fit on figures, and should be part of the pace throughout.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-So Elite; 4-Private Prospect
Forecast: Tread lightly here. Private Prospect was eased when beaten off in his local debut and then was a voided $16,000 claim. He worked okay to get off the vet’s list last week and plummets to the $8,000 level, so if he’s feeling up to it the Diodoro-trained gelding certainly can win. So Elite is the more dependable of the two and brings from Northern California a series of solid recent efforts. Stevens should have him within striking range while saving ground from his good inside draw. Small ticket players may try to get by using just these two but if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Wood Machine; 6-Unusual Meeting; 7-I’malreadythere
Forecast: I’malreadythere and Unusual Meeting are being protected in this starter’s race after being claimed in their last starts, so we expect both to run very well. The former, freshened since April, seeks his third straight score while retaining Prat and a solid, steady work tab in recent weeks should have him right on edge. ‘Meeting, a $25,000 Mulhall claim, has won four of his last six and is stretching out again after a good third in a downhill turf sprint last month. Nakatani should have him in an ideal stalking spot throughout. Wood Machine draws a much better post today and is tackling easier, so we expect improvement today with Stevens riding him back for Chambers.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Getoffmyback; 7-Have Some Pride
Forecast: We’ve rated this race a “C” – there’s simply nothing to trust – so if you’re playing the rolling exotics we suggest you spread as deeply as you can afford to. Getoffmyback has the route to sprint angle that we generally like, but the rail post does him no favors and the Miller barn has been ice cold since the meeting began. The Good Journey gelding certainly can win – his lone career victory came over this track – but there’s not a lot of value to be found at 2-1 on the morning line. Have Some Pride won at Los Alamitos from a weak group recently and produced an improved speed figure in doing so. With another forward move today the lightly-raced gelding should at least be competitive.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: A-
Single: 6-G Q Covergirl
Forecast: G Q Covergirl stretches out and tries turf for the first time, and in a race without her kind of early speed the daughter of General Quarters looks very much like a logical gate-to-wire candidate. She’s trained extremely well on grass – she easily handled yesterday’s Daisycutter Handicap winner Long Hot Summer in a team drill over this course July 23 – and seems primed for a significant forward move. Though she’ll probably go lower than her morning line of 5-1, the D’Amato-trained filly offers strong value both in the straight pool and as a rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: X
Use: 1-Surrender Now; 6-Diamondsandpearls
Forecast: The Sorrento Stakes boils down to two exceptional prospects, and both will be short prices, so you can either pass the race (and use both in rolling exotic play) and take a stand and hope to be right. Surrender Now is undefeated in two starts and couldn’t have won the Landaluce Stakes more impressively – she finished under wraps – while Diamondsandpearls, a $1.7 million purchase in March, crushed maidens in her only outing while winning with a ton left. If we had to prefer one over the other, we would give a very slight nod to Surrender Now, but the post position advantage enjoyed by ‘Pearls could give her the edge she needs. Tough call.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Bolt d’Oro
Forecast: Bolt d’Oro has given every indication of being a top prospect in his morning drills and seems plenty fit and ready to score at first asking. He’s 7/2 on the morning line but is certain to go lower. A $630,000 Saratoga yearling purchase, the son of Medaglia d’Oro has been trained to settle early and accelerate late and thus should have the perfect closing style for this extended sprint distance.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: X
Single: 8-Avenge
Forecast: Avenge may have been a tad short when weakening to wind up third behind Lady Eli (who came back to win recently at Saratoga) in the Gamely at Santa Anita in late May in what was her first outing since finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last November. This is a considerably easier spot than the Gamely, she’s trained very well since vanning down to Del Mar and she’s a perfect two-for-two over the local lawn. At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go off at no higher than even money, the daughter of War Front seems like a logical but no value rolling exotic single.
RACE 9: Post 6:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-River Echo; 3-Stormin Monarcho
Forecast: First off the claim for Eurton, New York shipper Stormin Monarcho looks well-spotted to get some of that ship and win money in this competitive optional claimer over a mile on the main track. And old-timer with 14 career scores and with recent numbers that should make him tough to beat, the son of Monarchos sports a bullet six furlong workout over this track last month to indicate he’s fit and ready for a top performance in his first outing since late May. River Echo lands the good rail and should draft into an ideal second flight, ground-saving position. First or second in seven of 13 career starts, the Miller-trained gelding missed at odds-on when second at Los Alamitos in his last start but could easily bounce back today.
RACE 10: Post 6:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Kinematico; 5-Captain Ron
Forecast: Captain Ron stretches out for the first time, removes blinkers, gets a huge break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman and should be able to establish the pace without undue pressure. If he’s ever going to get a mile, it will be under these conditions. Kinematico projects to enjoy a stalking trip from the rail and have every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. The Artie Schiller gelding has steadily improving speed figures and makes a positive jockey switch to Talamo.
SARATOGA
Saturday, August 5, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Excluded; 8-Frisky Magician; 11-D’ Eloquent
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Eight Town; 4-Zap Zap Zap; 6-Behavioral Bias
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Apple Betty; 4-Suffused; 5-Lottie
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Seabhac
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Altar Boy; 5-Delta Prince; 11-Mutazen
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Ceevee; 4-Engage; 9-Arrival
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Projected; 6-Aubenas; 8-Ring Weekend
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Chalon; 10-American Gal
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: X
Single: 6-Gun Runner
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-On Leave; 10-Elysea’s World; 11-Light In Paris
RACE 11: Post 6:54 ET. Grade: X
Single: 7-Neolithic
