Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Overnight Xpress (Dmr, Sar) for September 3, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

DEL MAR

Sunday, September 3, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Nardo; 5-Los Borrachos

Forecast: Los Borrachos looked good winning for $25,000 last month and today goes for new trainer Miller, who has excellent stats with first-off-the-claims. Desormeaux just won on him and stays aboard. Nardo closed a gap without threatening in a hot allowance race two weeks ago and takes a realistic drop in class while being reunited with Prat, who has won three times on him in the past.

Video Analysis

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Spiritual Warrior

Forecast: Spiritual Warrior shortens from a mile to five furlongs but is lightly-raced with the kind of upside that most of the others don’t have. He appears to have enough zip to be in contention throughout, and good recent workouts by the D’Amato-trained 3-year-old provides further evidence of his improving pattern. Let’s use him as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

Video Analysis

 

​​RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: C+

Use: Respect the Shot; 7-Come On In

Forecast: Respect the Shot ran very well in his debut when a close third in a maiden $50,000 claimer last month but was a voided claim and returned to the Cerin barn. Today, the Tribal Rule drops to the $32,000 level while adding blinkers. If he’s okay, he’ll probably win. Come On In is a first-timer from the sneaky Miyadi barn showing typically show workouts. We’re guessing that he’s faster than the times might indicate.

 Video Analysis

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B

Use:  1-Native Treasure; 9-Tasunke Witco

Forecast: Tasunke Wito is a New York invader seeking some of that valuable ship-and-win money in his first start since mid-July for the always-potent Hess/Desormeaux team, and from his cozy outside box the son of High Cotton should have every chance from a second-flight, stalking position. Native Treasure will have to overcome the rail but returns to dirt, drops below his claim level, retains Prat, and has won over this main track in the past. With good racing luck he’ll be heard from late.

Video Analysis

 

RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Big Buzz

Forecast: This 14-runner stakes for 2-year-olds on turf has a number of possibilities but Big Buzz, a closing fourth in his debut over this course without being knocked about, seems certain to move forward considerably and looks capable of producing a mild surprise at 6-1 on the morning line. The Yakteen-trained colt has worked splendidly since the race, retains Bejarano, and should have enough tactical speed to gain a favorable striking position.

Video Analysis

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Condi; 5-Thirteen Squared; 6-Ms Bad Behavior

Forecast: Condi and Ms Bad Behavior both have excellent races over this track to build on and are major contenders. However, the debuting Thirteen Squared might have more upside. The Baffert-trained filly lands Bejarano (who jumps off Ms Mad Behavior) and has done enough in the morning to indicate she has the kind of speed that can win at this level. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press with Thirteen Squared on top.

Video Analysis

 

RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Show Me Da Lute; 8-Chris and Dave

Forecast: We don’t really want to get too involved in this inscrutable first-level allowance main track miler event; big ticket players should use as many as they can afford to in rolling exotic play. Chris and Dave is genuine and versatile and in excellent form for Pender; he’s won two of his last three and can be effective on any surface. However, he’s most comfortable on or near the lead and there may be other speed types in here that will keep him occupied. Show Me Da Lute is lightly-raced with plenty of improvement in him for Baffert, should get a good trip from the rail, and earned a career top speed figure in his most recent outing. These are the two we’ll prefer but it’s really anybody’s race.

Video Analysis

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT.  Grade: B+

Use:  3-Bowies Hero; 5-Sharp Samurai

Forecast: Bowies Hero is two-for-two (both stakes) over the Del Mar turf course and was never sharper than his easy tally in the opening day Oceanside Stakes. There’s no reason this nine furlong trip won’t be within his range. Sharp Samurai continued his improving pattern with smart score in the La Jolla Stakes last month and seems like the main threat to ‘Hero. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference to Bowies Hero.

Video Analysis

 

RACE 9: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Dukes Up; 5-Rings of Justice; 6-Go Ghetto; 9-Trustworthy

Forecast: This starter’s allowance is a messy affair that seems completely wide open. We’ll go four deep but you may find the need to use a few more. Trustworthy did no running in his debut vs. straight maidens, then dropped into a claimer and won by a pole. This group is tougher but he’s a fit on numbers, retains Desormeaux and likely has further improvement in him. Dukes Up missed by a nose under similar conditions last month and not much better will be needed to win today. Rings of Jupiter returns to the main track and could be dangerous from off the pace if a decent pace materializes. We’ll also include Go Ghetto, a visually impressive winner of a bottom-rung maiden claimer in late July for hot trainer Baltas with a career top equaling speed figure.

Video Analysis

 

RACE 10: Post 5:10 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Kylmore; 6-Bitter Ring Home; 8-Fibonacci

Forecast: Kylmore was given a nice educational run in his debut, has trained very well since, and seems set for a huge forward move. Talamo stays aboard for Harty and from a cozy inside post he should have this son of Tiz Wonderful within striking range throughout. Fibonacci lands Smith following a series of strong works at Los Alamitos for Baltas and this son of Artie Schiller could be a very nice prospect. Drysdale sends out what could be a live first-timer in Bitter Ring Home, an expensive son of Lemon Drop Kid with Desormeaux taking the mount. He’s probably worth tossing in somewhere at a price.

Video Analysis

 

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SARATOGA

Sunday, September 3, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: C

Use: 1-Smokem’s Charm; 4-Sudden Surprise; 5-Big Zip

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:03 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 6-Bayshore Beauty; 11-Piquet; 12-Smart and Sassy

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RACE 3: Post 1:36 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 3-Rich Daddy

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:09 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Anna Rae

​RACE 5: Post 2:43 ET. Grade: B

Use: 5-Feed Me Carats; 7-Cashless Society

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:17 ET. Grade: B

Single: 1a-Transfer Pricing; 2-Campaign; 10-Johnny Action

​​RACE 7: Post 3:51 ET.  Grade: C

Use: 1-More Mojo; 2-Miss Aliphant; 3-Wicked Obsession; 8-Pink Sands

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:26 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Overnegotiate

RACE 9: Post 5:02 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 6-Luz Mimi; 7-Libby’s Tail; 8-Kirby’s Penny

 

RACE 10: Post 5:38 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Nonna Mela; 8-Downtown Mama

RACE 11: Post 6:13 ET.  Grade: C

Use: 2-Zigmund; 4-Brockmoninoff; 12-Burkie; 15-Disco Outlaw

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Overnight Xpress (Dmr, Sar) for September 3, 2017

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