Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis April 7, 2016

FIRST RACE (1:00 PT) – GRADE: B+

 Use: 2-Cimple Man; 3-Atypique

#3 Atypique tipped his hand with an excellent runner-up effort in his sprint debut last month; the son of Tapit finished eagerly to be second while more than five clear of the rest while giving every indication that he’ll improve considerably when sent a distance of ground. He gets that chance today and should make the most of it. #2 Cimple Man is strong in the speed figure department and has the benefit of two runs at this meeting, most recently a solid third in what has proven to be a productive race. Mike Smith stays aboard in what is shaping up as a father vs. son duel between Richard (Atypique) and Gary (Cimple Man) Mandella. We’ll prefer Atypique – clearly the colt with a higher ceiling – but use both in our rolling exotic s.

  

SECOND RACE (1:30 PT) – GRADE: C

 Use: 2-Moscato Girl; 3-Papaslilprincess; 6-Diamonds Dena

Bottom-rung claiming fillies and mares meet over a mile on the main track in a race where nothing is trustworthy. #3 Papaslilprincess has been chasing much tougher of late, has won at this trip in the past, and could come to life while stretching out for the first time since October. She seems capable of producing the last run if given the patient ride from Pedroza that she seems to require.   #2 Moscato Girl made a soft pace in a slightly tougher race and weakened late; we suspect similar front-running tactics will be employed. The daughter of Desert Code has three wins and 14 seconds and thirds, so we would not be surprised if she has to settle for a minor award again today. #6 Diamonds Dena, freshened since early February, invades from Arizona with speed figures that fit and a good pace-stalking style. She may be as good as any.

 

THIRD RACE (2:03 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 1-Sensitively

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a second-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares that matches #1 Sensitively against four out-classed rivals. A fast, highly-rated comeback sprint winner in mid-February, the Phil D’Amato-trained filly sports a healthy work tab since and should easily take this one-level class hike in stride. The daughter of Street Sense should easily be the controlling speed, but at 3/5 on the morning line she offers no wagering valuing other than being an obvious rolling exotic single.

 

FOURTH RACE (2:33 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 6-Heir of the Storm; 7-Basmati; 8-Clever Royal

The fourth race is a fairly contentious downhill turf sprint for older $50,000 claimers and requires a bit of a spread. #6 Heir of the Storm has been away since August but has trained like he’s fit and ready at San Luis Rey Downs for Peter Miller (strong stats with comebackers) and is reunited with Victor Espinoza, who won on him two races back at Del Mar. The son of Wildcat Heir has a good pace-pressing/stalking style and should inherit an ideal trip in a race lacking in intense early zip. #7 Basmati will race with blinkers on for the first time since last summer and could produce a bit of a wake-up effort in his second start since being claimed by Jeff Metz. He gets a bit of a weight break with the switch to bug boy Lopez and his good tactical speed should guarantee a clean journey. He’s worth using at 8-1 on the morning line. #8 Clever Royal has the route-to-sprint angle that we like so much and has won over this course and distance in the past. He exits a live, productive race, switches to Pedroza, and could be heard from late at a decent price. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Heir of the Storm on top.

 

FIFTH RACE (3:05 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 1-Stir Fry; 5-Fiftypercentcotton; 9-Adrian’s Girl

Maiden claiming $30,000 fillies sprint five and one-half furlongs, with #1 Stir Fry the logical top pick following a pair of runner-up efforts against similar company in races six days apart here last month. The Gary Stute-trained daughter of Papa Claim has dangerous early zip and can put her rail post position to good advantage, assuming she leaves with her field. #9 Adrian’s Girl got plenty of wagering support (9/2) in her debut vs. maiden $50,000 foes in January, but flashed only brief speed before fading readily. She could be much better than that race indicates, so we’ll use her. #5 Fiftypercentcotton is a first-timer with a pretty good work tab for trainer Dan Blacker and appears clearly the most dangerous of the newcomers. #6 One Smart Cat is a first-off-the-claim for trainer Doug O’Neill (a solid 20% with this angle) and has every right to improve after finishing fourth in a productive race in her debut in February.

 

SIXTH RACE (3:35 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Surfing the Moon; 8-Audra

#4 Surfing the Moon came off a long layoff to easily outrun bottom-rung maiden claimers last month and if she can turn in two alike she’ll be hard to beat right back in this restricted $12,500 extended sprint for fillies and mares. The daughter of Surf Cat obviously has her issues, but if she one good one left she’ll be tough to catch. #8 Audra has been chasing much tougher starter’s allowance foes lately and is strictly the one to beat. On pure numbers she’s fast enough to win and with the switch to Flavien Prat she figures to be well-placed in a pace-stalking position throughout. Two nice workouts since raced contribute to her healthy form cycle. With give Surfing the Moon a very slight edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

SEVENTH RACE (4:05 PT) – GRADE: B+

Single: 3-Havnna Belle

Conditioned allowance fillies and mares meet over a mile on turf in today’s feature, with #3 Havanna Belle the strong morning line favorite at 8/5. Overmatched vs. the boys in the marathon San Luis Rey S.-G2 in her last start, the Phil D’Amato-trained Irish import should go much better in this markedly easier spot, especially with a turn back to a mile, the distance of her most recent winning performance. She switches to Prat and looks capable of producing the last run. Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

EIGHTH RACE (4:05 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Goldrushcat; 3-Lady’s Discretion; 7-Manhattan Fashion

The finale is a split of the fifth race featuring an unclassified field of maiden claiming sophomore fillies. #2 Goldrushcat has rising speed figures and should win one soon; the Mark Glatt-trained daughter of Broken Vow retains Prat following a solid runner-up effort under similar conditions last month. She shortens up a furlong today and should be on or near the lead throughout. #3 Lady’s Discretion has displayed plenty of early zip but not a whole lot of stick in her first two career outings, but at this abbreviated sprint distance could take this field a long way. #7 Manhattan Fashion drops to her lowest level ever, has speed figures that are rising, and switches to Tyler Baze.   Look for her to be running on in the final furlong.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis April 7, 2016

Jeff Siegel's Blog |