Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis for May 15, 2016

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

 

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass. Top selection indicated in bold-face

 

FIRST RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: B

Single: 1-Tryst

The Sunday program begins with a maiden special weight main track extended sprint featuring #1 Tryst, who was second at 2/5 in her debut in early January and may be a similarly short price again in this modest affair. The Richard Mandella-trained daughter of Candy Ride continues to impress in the a.m. and gets a chance to get things right today. You can use her as a free bingo space in rolling exotic play but that’s about it.

 

SECOND RACE (2:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 1-Doyouknowsomething; 3-Desert Dynamo

The second race is a second level allowance middle distance main track event that drew just five starters, with two main contenders. #3 Desert Dynamo was scratched out of a sprint yesterday for this two-turner affair and will be a short price to regain his winning form. The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained colt missed by a head in his comeback at Los Alamitos last month but should produce a strong forward move today and the added distance figures to be well within range. #1 Doyouknowsomething was in a bit steep when fourth in the Ben Ali S.-G3 at Keeneland in his last start but continues to impress in the morning for trainer A.C. Avila and is a strong fit on figures at this level. Both should be used in rolling exotic play in a race that otherwise should be passed.

 

THIRD RACE (3:00 PT) – GRADE: C+

Use: 2-Storm the Shore; 3-Beaumarchais; 8-Mischievous Bull

Maiden $75,000 claimers sprint five and one-half furlongs in the third race, an open affair requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. #2 Storm the Shore just failed at even money in a similar event at Los Alamitos last month but he gets blinkers and Flavien Prat today so we’ll give the Mike McCarthy-trained gelding another chance. His best is more than good enough to win. #3 Beaumarchais is gradually improving and continues to look good in the a.m., so with another forward move today he could be a strong factor throughout. Toss him in. #8 Mischievous Bull has rising numbers for trainer Doug O’Neill, is drawn comfortably outside, and will enjoy a good pace-stalking trip. He’s tackling tougher today but really won’t have to improve all that much to be in the thick of things. We’ll prefer Storm the Shore on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

 

FOURTH RACE (3:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 4-Uncle Chato; 5-Seedsandstemsagain

#5 Seedsandstemsagain seeks his third straight score in the fourth race, a first-level downhill turf sprint, and the Steve Miyadi-trained veteran, in his present form, should be a short price to extend his streak. Tough at any distance and with the kind of tactical speed that can be effective on the front end or from a stalking position, the son of Old Topper is 8/5 on the morning line and probably will go lower. We’ll also have a ticket as a saver using #4 Uncle Chato. A sharp winner over this course and distance when breaking his maiden in March, the Mike Puype-trained gelding is a progressive sort with another good forward move in him. He’ll be running on late be used as an exacta partner with our top pick.

 

FIFTH RACE (4:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 7-Pazmeifucan; 9-Ain’t Misbehavin

Bottom-rung claimers sprint six and one-half furlongs in the fifth race. We’ll go two deep but this is a chaotic affair, so tread lightly. #7 Pazmeifucan is a first-time gelding with a poor recent run, but he continues to work well for clever trainer Miyadi and could easily bounce back with a major effort today. #9 Ain’t Misbehavin drops below his claim level for trainer Jack Carava and should be very live against this group. All three of his career wins have come over the Santa Anita main track and that coupled with the route-to-sprint makes him a major player. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Ain’t Misbehavin on top.

 

SIXTH RACE (4:30 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 3-China Girl Lover; 4-Tribal Tribute; 5-Hobbits Hero

Second-level allowance turf horses meet at nine furlongs in a very competitive sixth race to kick off the late Pick-4. #5 Hobbits Hero seeks his third straight win after being re-claimed by trainer Richard Baltas; the front-running son of Aragorn retains Rafael Bejarano and should be on or near the lead throughout once again. #4 Tribal Tribute didn’t get the best of runs when a troubled third in a similar affair last month; with clear sailing today the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding should be in the fray throughout. #3 China Girl Lover didn’t run well in a main track marathon recently but these conditions are much more to his liking and we’re expecting the Dan Hendricks-trained gelding to be a strong threat from off the pace. We’ll give Hobbits Hero a slight edge on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

 

SEVENTH RACE (5:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 7-Ultra Sharp; 8-Armored Car

Restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimers sprint seven furlongs in the seventh race; we’ll double the race while preferring #8 Armored Car on top. The Doug O’Neill-trained gelding just broke his maiden vs. bottom-rung foes in his last start but earned a good figure in doing so and is properly spotted for a big effort right back. #7 Ultra Sharp was no factor going long on the lawn at Golden Gate Fields vs. tougher foes in his last start but should return to good form under these much more favorable conditions. On pure numbers and with Prat getting back aboard, this Craig Dollase trained gelding is the likely choice and one to beat.

 

EIGHTH RACE (5:30 PT) – GRADE: B+

Use: 4-Everqueen; 7-Lucky Folie; 8-Bellamentary

The Angel’s Flight Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at seven furlongs is the eighth race feature. #4 Everqueen is a rapidly improving ex-claimer that must be taken seriously despite the raise to stakes competition. The daughter of Colonel John was visually very impressive winning an allowance race with a big figure in February, and since then has looked the part in a series of impressive a.m. drills, including a 1:11 3/5 gate workout last week. We’re expecting Joe Talamo to be on or near the lead throughout. #7 Lucky Folie has trained like she’s ready for a huge effort as well. Away since winning the Desi Arnaz Stakes at Del Mar in November, the Mandella-trained filly by Distorted Humor could easily be a better type now and gets Lasix and hot riding Prat. She worked six furlongs in an amazing 1:10 flat last week to indicate her readiness. #8 Bellamentary was no match for unbeaten Songbird in the Santa Anita Oaks over a sloppy track she might not have cared for last time out, but her highly-rated win over this track and distance in her race before last against allowance foes charts very well with these. We’ll put Everqueen on top and use her in the straight pool, but include all three in our rolling exotics.

 

NINTH RACE (6:00 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Lynne’s Legacy; 3-La Boheme; 12-Tinderella

The finale brings out maiden fillies and mares over nine furlongs on turf in looks completely wide open. We’ll use three in our rolling exotics but best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. #3 La Boheme, in the money in both of her starts since being imported from England, seems capable of producing enough of a forward move to beat this field. Prat should have her within striking range throughout. #12 Tinderella is drawn poorly outside but if she negotiate a decent trip she’ll be right in the picture. #2 Lynn’s Legacy was beaten a neck against similar foes over this course and distance last time out and a repeat of that effort today could be good enough. Espinoza stays aboard for Cassidy.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis for May 15, 2016

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