Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis for May 22, 2016

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita analysis offers race-by-race wagering strategies geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections and analysis be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

A horse’s final (closing) odds are irrelevant to Jeff’s rolling exotic wagering strategies; In fact, the morning line often provides a better indication as to how strongly a horse may be played in the rolling exotics pools than a horse’s actual closing odds.  Jeff’s top selection always appears in bold-faced type.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

 

A=Highest degree of confidence.  B=Solid Play.  C=Least preferred, or pass.  Top selection indicated in bold-face.

 

FIRST RACE (2:00 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 1-Out of Patience; 4-A Colt Following

The Sunday opener is a middle-distance $25,000 claimer; we’ll use two in our rolling exotics but will otherwise pass the race. #1 Out of Patience is a first-off-the-claim for Gary Stute following a game win at seven furlongs for $16,000; this double-jump in class and the stretch-out in trip makes a repeat difficult but he’s a fit on numbers and likes this track. The veteran gelding also may benefit from a substantial weight break. #4 A Colt Following makes a major switch to jockey Flavien Prat, exits a tougher starter’s allowance race, and is especially tough over the Santa Anita main track (four wins in 10 career starts).

 

SECOND RACE (2:33 PT) – GRADE: C

Use: 3-Watch Me Now; 4-Euphemistic; 9-Dixie Dame

The second race is a bottom-level maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics and hope that’s enough. #9 Dixie Dame, the 2-1 morning line favorite, has failed at odds of 5/2 or less in each of her last six starts. She may finally win – she’s finished in the money in her last six – but hardly qualifies as one to trust. #3 Watch Me Now has competitive speed figures and is reunited with jockey Kent Desormeaux, who’ll likely give her the patient ride she seems to prefer. #4 Euphemistic drops to the bottom for her third career start, adds blinkers for the first time and probably has some improvement in her. She’s worth tossing in at 15-1 on the morning line.

 

THIRD RACE (3:06 PT) – GRADE: B+

 

Use: 2-Gloryzapper; 3-Shh She’s Ours

#2 Gloryzapper makes her first start since October in today’s third race, an extended sprint for second-level allowance fillies and mares. She won her debut last summer so you know the daughter of Ghostzapper can fire fresh, and the works indicate she’s fit and ready for a top effort for a barn that boasts superior stats with layoff runners. We’ll put her on top but also include in our rolling exotics the rapidly improving #3 Shh She’s Ours, a winner of her last pair with improving speed figures and potentially the controlling speed in this five runner field. The daughter of Tiz Wonderful continues to sizzle in the morning and probably is capable of producing another forward move.

 

FOURTH RACE (3:39 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Bijoux; 4-Individual Design

The fourth race is a $12,500 middle distance claimer for fillies and mares that boils down to #1 Bijoux and #4 Individual Design. The former missed at even money vs. similar at Los Alamitos last month but has trained well since and should be the controlling speed from the rail. The latter, first off the claim for Victor Garcia, has a good stalking style, speed figures that fit, and won over this track and distance two races back. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Bijoux on top.

 

FIFTH RACE (4:12 PT) – GRADE: C+

Single: 2-Royal Privacy

The fifth race is an inscrutable maiden $50,000 state-bred claiming sprint. We’ve listed the first timer #2 Royal Privacy as a default single for small ticket players, but if you can afford to buy the race, it’s probably the best way to go. ‘Privacy has trained fairly well for his debut and is unexposed, which is more than you can say for the others. The son of Rocky Bar from the good mare Miss Pravda hails from a capable outfit and should be fit enough for a good effort against this group. At 5-1 on the morning line he may be worth a small play in a race that should be approached with caution.

 

SIXTH RACE (4:44 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 2-Jaw Dropper; 4-Accelerate

Older straight maidens sprint six and one-half furlongs in the sixth race with two main players to consider in your rolling exotics. #4 Accelerate tipped his hand when finishing a good second in his racing debut at Los Alamitos last month; it wasn’t a particular strong race for the level but this one isn’t, either, and the John Sadler-trained colt has a right to produce a forward move. Tyler Baze stays aboard and a promising set of workouts since his race gives reason to believe that better is forthcoming. #2 Jaw Dropper is a first-timer from the Bob Baffert barn with a decent series of drills to his credit. A $550,000 Keeneland yearling, the son of Tapit has shown enough ability in the a.m. to indicate he’ll be a live item against this group.

 

SEVENTH RACE (5:15 PT) – GRADE: B

Use: 4-Rue de Cry; 5-Augustina de Aragorn

The seventh race kicks off the late pick-4; it’s a fairly decent nine furlong turf event for entry-level allowance fillies and mares. #4 Rue de Cry broke her maiden over this course two runs back in clever style and then finished a decent third in an all-weather affair up north. She’s reunited with Joe Talamo, who won on her in that March maiden event, and at 6-1 on the morning she offers a bit of value. #5 Augustina de Aragorn loves this course (two wins, two seconds in four starts), is strong in the speed figure department, and is consistent and genuine. Rafael Bejarano should have her in a good second flight, stalking spot. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Augustina de Aragon.

 

EIGHTH RACE (5:39 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 5-L. A. Magic; 9-Alexita

Restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming fillies and mares meet over six furlongs in the eighth race; it’s a modest affair with #5 L. A. Magic and #9 Alexita likely to receive much of the action. L. A. Magic has won over this track in the past and her kind of early speed makes her dangerous against this group, while Alexita, third in her comeback vs. tougher starter’s allowance foes at Los Alamitos, lands the cozy outside post and should draft into a soft pace-stalking spot. We’ll use both in rolling exotic play and then press with Alexita on top in the straight pool if she’s at or near her morning line of 5/2.

 

NINTH RACE (6:09 PT) – GRADE: B+

 

Single: 2-Lieutenant Colonel

#2 Lieutenant Colonel couldn’t stay the marathon 12-furlong journey in the Tokyo City S.-G3 last month but at this mile and one-eighth trip the son of Colonel John looks capable of returning to winning form, especially if he’s handed an easy early lead. The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained gelding is reunited with Bejarano, who has won twice with him in the past, and a recent set of sharp workouts indicates a major effort is likely. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

TENTH RACE (6:40 PT) – GRADE: B-

Use: 1-Pearl de Vere; 8-Behest

The finale is a downhill turf sprint for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares. #1 Pearl de Vere drops for the money run, adds blinkers, and retains Prat. The rail is no bargain over this course but if the veteran can secure a good trip from off the pace she’ll be heard from in the final furlong. #8 Behest won a state-bred allowance race in January but returns today in a claimer, not a healthy sign. However, she’s worked well of late for the Phil D’Amato barn (superior stats with layoff runners) and the daughter of Fusaichi Pegasus has the kind of speed that puts her on or near the lead throughout at this level. We have Pearl de Vere on top but will use both in rolling exotic play.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis for May 22, 2016

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