Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, Jan. 12, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, January 12, 2018

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-War Moccasin; 8-Gosecal

Forecast: War Moccasin returns to her claim level in this $50,000 turf seller restricted to 4-year-old fillies and looks capable of producing the last run in a moderate race for the level.  Goseecal shows up for a tag for the first time; she hails from the red-hot Cerin barn, and gets a break in the weights with the switch to Roman.  She’s 1-for-17 in her career, but at least that win came over this course and distance.  ‘Moccasin gets a slight edge on top but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Batiquitos; 2-Dangerously Close

Forecast: The bulk of the action will go to Batiquitos and Dangerously Close in this state-bred filly and mare first level allowance sprint.  The former returns to dirt after a sharp runner-up try on turf at Del Mar; prior to that she broke her maiden at first asking with a solid number at Los Alamitos and would appear to have plenty of room for further improvement.  Dangerously Close crushed a starter’s allowance field with a huge speed figure at Los Alamitos in her last outing; a repeat of that race probably will be good enough to win right back.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.

​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Out of Patience

Forecast: Out of Patience makes his first start since being claimed by Mulhall, and despite being away for a couple of months and obviously out of jail, he’s being raised on the class ladder in what must be taken as a sign of confidence.  A five time winner over the Santa Anita main track and reunited with his “win rider” Talamo, the veteran gelding is a tough old pro who should be able to find a way to beat this field.  At 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 4-Thankful Every Day; 5-Pure Pursuit; 10-Milhaud; 11-Liberty Jack

Forecast: This bottom rung maiden claimer is somewhat chaotic; we’ll go four-deep but not with any degree of confidence.  Milhaud takes a nosedive in class but since he’s a 6-year-old maiden the big dive is warranted.  His best numbers have come on turf but in this league he’s probably the one to beat.  Liberty Jack, first off the claim for Morey, makes his first start in 11 months and might be a better type this time around.  Drawn comfortably outside and landing hot-riding bug boy Roman, the Munnings gelding has numbers that fit and a useful series of workouts up north to have him fit and ready.  Pure Pursuit shows up in a claimer for the first time and has the kind of early speed that could be dangerous against this group.  Thankful Every Day is another with a bit of speed, is lightly-raced, and at 6-1 on the morning line is worth tossing in somewhere.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single:  9-Get Yourself Home

Forecast: Get Yourself Home is bred to move up a ton on grass, and after a promising debut sprinting on dirt at Del Mar in November the Machowsky-trained filly shows up in a modest state-bred maiden affair down the hill that should be made to order for her.  At 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the daughter of Good Journey probably won’t offer much value in the straight pool but we can use her as rolling exotic single.

 

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Backintheacademy; 5-Forbidden Command

Forecast:  Backintheacademy makes a monumental trainer switch to Miller, and if she improves as much as expected the veteran mare will be hard to beat.  She likes this track and has recent numbers that are better than par for this level.  Forbidden Command won her last race in November vs. similar rivals, and after a couple of months off shows up for $8,000 again, not a great pattern.  However, if the Mulhall-trained mare has one good one left, she’ll be right there.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Dr. Troutman; 3-The Big Train; 5-Six Point Rack;

Forecast:  Dr. Troutman switches to Smith, who likely will give this Vronsky colt the patient handling he needs.  The newly-turned 4-year-old exits a series of tough races but this group seems well within his range, and at 6-1 on the morning line he offers decent wagering value.  Let’s put him on top but also include The Big Train and Six Point Rack.  The former seems to have improved a bit since joining the Miller barn and should be a strong late threat, while the latter retains Prat, has good recent form, shows a good recent race over the course, and should appreciate today’s extra distance.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 3-Dialed to Go; 5-Tiny Tina; 9-Condi; 10-Mariana’s Girl

Forecast:  The nightcap is an inscrutable maiden claiming sprint for sophomore fillies.  Use as many as you can afford to.  Condi drops again in class and may have found her friends.  She’s fast enough on numbers to win at this level.  Mariana’s Girl has hit the board in her last two and her numbers are rising.  Tiny Tina chased much tougher straight maidens in her debut sprinting down the hill and could easily improve a bunch when facing this much softer group.  Dialed to Go has plenty of zip and could stick around a long time at this abbreviated distance.

 

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, Jan. 12, 2018

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