Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for April 22, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, April 22, 2017

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Banze No Oeste; 8-Success Rate

Mid-grade claiming sprinters meet down the hill in the Saturday opener. Success Rate comes off a clever win over this course and distance vs. $25,000 foes and seems capable of repeating on the one-level raise. Drawn comfortably outside while catching a favorable pace scenario, the Jack Carava-trained gelding has strung good ones back-to-back in the past, so we expect he’ll continue to maintain his sharp form. Banze No Oeste, freshened since early March and making his first start today as a gelding, exits a hot race and should appreciate this class drop. He’s won on this course in the past and appears to be the most dangerous of the late-runners. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Success Rate.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: C+

Use: W. Giles; 4-Rangi

Rangi crushed a $32,000 field in an off-the-turfer in late February but hasn’t been out since and today drops to the $25,000 level. That’s not what you’d call a healthy pattern, but if the Peter Miller-trained import has one good one left he’ll be hard to beat. W. Giles faded readily after being used hard on the pace just eight days ago; he’s wheeled back on short rest by new trainer John Brocklebank and will be racing with blinkers. Very fast when he’s on his game, the son of Swiss Yodeler will take them as far as he can on the front end. In a race that we’ll otherwise leave alone, we’ll include both in our rolling exotics but not with a great deal of confidence.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:59 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Miss Bliss; 4-Quinnette

Bottom-rung claiming fillies and mares sprint six and one-half furlongs in the third race. Miss Bliss takes a huge drop in class and probably has some issues, but she’s reunited with Rafael Bejarano, who won on her three races back, and her excellent form over the Santa Anita main track (four wins, three seconds in 10 starts) makes her strictly the one to beat. Quinette also will be facing a much easier band today and could come to life. The veteran mares boasts 11 career wins and won the last time she dropped to this level. We’ll prefer Miss Bliss on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:29 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Syntax; 6-Papacoolpapacool

This year’s edition of the San Juan Capistrano doesn’t have much to offer, so we’ll go two-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Syntax seems the logical top pick following his strong runner-up effort in the San Luis Rey S.-G2 against a similar group in late March and not much more will be needed to win this marathon. However, he’s 8/5 on the morning line and liable to go lower. Papacoolpapacool is a course specialist (five wins in nine career starts) and is reunited with Flavien Prat, who won on him two races back. The Temple City gelding was below his best when unplaced in the San Luis Rey but could be capable of bouncing back and making a run for it today.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:01 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Passed by Paul; 6-Excavation

Passed by Paul just finished first in a similar event but was disqualified for causing a foul in deep stretch so he’s back with maiden foes again today. His numbers are moving in the right direction, so if the Doug O’Neill-trained gelding can maintain a straight course today he could easily make amends. Excavation is first time gelding and a big class dropper from the Phil D’Amato barn, so we’ll make him a contender as well. On pure numbers, he’s a fit. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Passed by Paul.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:35 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Tribal Jewel; 7-Kristi’s Copilot

Entry-level older optional claimers compete in the sixth race over a mile and one-sixteenth on the main track in the sixth race. We’re expecting Tribal Jewel to return to winning form after weakening and winding up third as the odds-on choice in a similar event in late March. He’s worked well since, switches to Edwin Maldonado, and may be the controlling speed, though he doesn’t need the lead to win. Kristi’s Copilot earned a speed figure two races back that could easily beat this field, and his last race, a turf sprint, came over a surface he’s never been known to like. The Ian Kruljac-trained gelding is 4-1 on the morning line and should be worth every bit of that. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics and then press with a few extra tickets keying Tribal Jewel.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:07 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 7-Marckie’s Water

The seventh race is a below par maiden special weight affair over nine furlongs on grass for California-bred runners. Marckie’s Water adds blinkers for the first time, exits a good race, and has steadily rising speed figures. The Richard Baltas-trained colt should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position and have every chance from there. At 3-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:38 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Collected; 2-Cupid

Trainer Bob Baffert holds the aces in the Californian S.-G2 with recent Santana Mile Stakes winner Collected and the classy comebacker Cupid both having strong credentials to win this nine furlong main track event. Collected earned the first triple-digit Beyer speed figure of his career when winning his first 2017 outing with a good stalking trip and not much better will be needed to score right back. Cupid has trained like he’s fit and ready for a huge run in his first outing since last September, and while he doesn’t need the lead to win the son of Tapit could easily inherit the role as the controlling speed if Bejarano chooses to get aggressive. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, but because he’s had a recent outing we’ll give Collected a very slight edge on top.

 

RACE 9: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Watch This Cat; 5-Riri; 9-Paquita Coqueta

The Mizdirection Stakes occupies the ninth race slot; it’s a downhill turf sprint for older fillies and mares and contains several possibilities. Watch This Cat must overcome the disadvantageous rail post position but if she can regain her best form the Baltas-trained mare will be formidable. We can toss out her last race – the main track experiment didn’t work – and today, over a course we know she likes the daughter of Eskendreya must be considered the one to beat. Riri won a nice conditioned allowance affair over this course and distance in mid-March and with further improvement could be a factor again despite the class hike. Her speed figures continue to rise and Bejarano should have her in a perfect second flight, ready-to-pounce position. Poquita Coqueta is plenty quick and could get brave if she can clear this group early without undue pressure. Gary Stevens stays aboard – he’s won on her in the past – so at 6-1 on the morning line the Chilean-bred mare is worth using on a ticket or two.

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​​RACE 10: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Mucho Chrome; 5-Leading Score; 9-Acker

The finale is a 14-running maiden special weight sprint that appears wide open. Use as many as you can afford to.    Mucho Chrome looks interesting at 12-1 on the morning line; the Art Sherman-trained gelding hasn’t been out since last June but appears to be working well and has some form over this track last year that puts him the hunt. Leading Score has trained very well for his first start since late December and could easily be much improved for Baffert. He’s always been fairly-well regarded. Acker is a first-timer by Include from the Richard Mandella barn with some solid workouts on his resume. Toss him in on a ticket or two.

 

 

KEENELAND

Saturday, April 22, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:05 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-On Board; 5-Milady Rocks

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:39 ET. Grade: C

Use: 1-Smarty Kitten; 2-Mesoma; 7-Malibu Sunset

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RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Limousine Liberal; 6-Silver Ride

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:45 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Blonde in the City; 7-Raise Your L Up

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​RACE 5: Post 3:18 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Flipcup; 2-Kyllachy Queen; 6-Shelbysmile

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:51 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Tapsolute; 7-Meantime

​​RACE 7: Post 4:24 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Entertainer; 3-Stone; 6-Westfest

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:57 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Lenstar; 5-Bam Bam Bryan; 6-Aquamarine

RACE 9: Post 5:30 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Danish Dynaformer; 4-Itsinthepost; 11-Chocolate Ride

RACE 10: Post: 6:03 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Awestruck; 6-Conquest Classic

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for April 22, 2017

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