Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for August 23, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

DEL MAR

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Star of Quality; 4-Bridal Arch

Forecast: Star Quality, away since late May following a decent win at this level, may be capable of picking up where she left off following a series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs that should have her fit and ready. However, the Miller barn has been cold the entire season and is not one to bank on at this time, so we’ll prefer Bridal Arch, a maiden claiming winner with a competitive speed figure over this track and distance earlier this month. She’s protected today, retains Bejarano, and is the likely choice and one to beat.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Mining Diamonds; 6-Sally Simpson

Forecast: Mining Diamonds shows up in a claimer for the first time, removes the blinkers that she added for her last start, and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman. She’s another one of those Miller layoff runners that you have to respect but not totally trust. Sally Simpson makes her first start since being claimed by Hess at this level last month and seems likely to improve with the switch to the stable’s go-runner jockey, Desormeaux. Drawn comfortably outside and with a speed figure two races back that is good enough to beat this field, the daughter of Mineshaft could easily go favored.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Rafter One; 6-Clifton Beach; 8-Orejas

Forecast: The Pick-6 begins with a spread race, a bottom-rung maiden claimer with nothing to trust. Clifton Beach seems logical but has failed four times at odds of less than 3-1, including twice at even money. He should win one of these eventually, maybe today, but he loses Roman and picks Amparan, not what you’d call a favorable rider switch. Orejas, first off the claim for Belvoir, retains Roman and should run at least as well if not better than his last start when factoring in the shorter trip. He’s improving according to speed figures and could produce another forward move today. Rafter One has the route-to-spring angle we like and might appreciate patient tactics today.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:33 PT. Grade: B

Use:  2-Out Ofthe Ordinary; 3-Mangita

Forecast: Out Ofthe Ordinary drops for the money run after appearing rusty in her recent comeback, her first outing in 10 months. Despite fading readily after pressing a hot pace, she earned a pretty strong number in a race that was dominated by closers and should stick a whole lot better against this group. Koriner has excellent stats with second-off-layoff runners.  Mangita drops to her lowest level ever for a barn that’s had a disastrous meeting, and she’s also winless in five starts over the Del Mar turf course and winless since 2015. And, at age seven, she’s seen better days. However, she’s likely to draft into a comfortable pace-stalking positon and at this level she may find renewed spirit.

 

RACE 5: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Trust N Liberty; 6-Fake News; 7-Desert Domination

Forecast: Trust N Liberty is a Golden Gate shipper with some okay works on his resume and looks sneaky live in an unclassified field of maiden claiming juveniles. He’s bred to be quick, hails form a capable outfit and should be plenty fit for this five and one-half furlong dash. Let’s put him on top and hope to get close to his morning line of 8-1. Fake News is improving with racing and should be closing well, while Desert Domination, far back vs. straight maidens on turf in his debut, figures to improve a bunch with this class drop for Miller (21% with second-timers) while retaining Prat.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Ready to Hula Lula; 4-Winemenow; 6-Secret Thorn

Forecast: Many of these exit the same August 3rd race that offered identical conditions to this affair, so it’s difficult to locate an edge. Winemenow finished well to be second while finding the five furlong trip a bit too sharp, but with some much suspect speed in this race she might be capable of producing a winning late kick with good racing luck. Secret Thorn was fourth in that same race, and considering it was her first outing in 11 months she certainly has a right to move forward, especially with the addition of blinkers for the first time. Ready to Hula Lula had a three length lead in mid-stretch before being swallowed up close home; her kind of zip always must be respected so we’ll toss her in as well.

 

RACE 7: Post 5:03 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 6-Cupid

Forecast: Cupid has trained better than ever over the Del Mar main track – better than Arrogate and at least as good as Collected – and completely outclasses this field. Suffice to say he’s a no-value rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 5:33 PT.  Grade: B+

Single:  1-Acker

Forecast: Acker ran very well in his debut, not so hot in his second start (in a highly-rated race) and today shows up for a high-priced tag on grass. He should love the added ground and switch in surface, lands the good rail, retains Prat, and has trained well enough to be fit and ready. At 3-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

 

SARATOGA

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: X

Pass/No Play

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Donegal Moon; 5-Destin

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RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Strike; 4-Majestic Dunhill; 6-Elusive Mischief

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Enduring Erin; 4-Frostie Anne

​RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Daddy’s Home; 6-Spectrolite

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Now in a Drive; 5-Le Pin; 6-Oiseau de Guerre

​​RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 6-Tapella

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-St. Louie; 3-Infinite Wisdom; 5-Renown

RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 6-Voodoo Song

 

RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-I Miss My Father; 8-Souper Colors

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for August 23, 2017

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