Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for August 31, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

DEL MAR

Thursday, August 31, 2017

​​

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Playing Through; 3-Midnight Run; 7-American Currency

Forecast: American Currency has trained well enough for Truman to win at first asking at this level. He’s plenty fit, lands the cozy outside post, and should pop and go under Roman. Midnight Run has the benefit of a prior run over the track, moves up a notch after a decent second with a fair number, and seems likely to produce a forward move. Playing Through had a bit of a rough run in his debut, but he’s another who should benefit from the outing and with clear sailing today could be heard from in the final furlong.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Papercoversrock; 5-Private Terrace

Forecast: This bottom-rung main track mile event for fillies and mares looks treacherous. Private Terrace has excellent recent form and anything close to her best race will win, but she’s dropping two levels off a nose defeat for her new connections in what is anything but a healthy pattern. Let’s hope she has one good one left, but at the price there’s really no value to found. Papercoversrock, in her third start off a layoff, is a solid fit on number in her case the class isn’t suspicious, it’s warranted. The Morey-trained mare has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and does her best work at this one mile trip. We’ll try to get by using just these two while preferring Papercoversrock on top.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Paddy Jean; 2-Unlucky Hillary

Forecast: Unlucky Hillary looked decent when finishing third in a nice sprint earlier this meeting but then didn’t run a yard when stretched out to a mile in her most recent outing. She drops into a high-priced claimer, switches to turf, and is worth giving another chance to. Paddy Jean, a solid runner-up in a similar race over this course two weeks ago, lands the good rail and should be on or near the lead throughout. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while preferring Unlucky Hillary on top.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Hank the Tank; 8-Braddock

Forecast: Restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimers sprint six furlongs in the fourth race, with the lightly-raced and improving Hank the Tank appearing well-spotted for a major effort. This will be his second off a layoff – the Puype-trained gelding finished a steady fourth in a quick turf race vs. tougher last month – and a sharp recent half-mile workout indicates the son of In Summation is ready to produce a significant forward move. Braddock, a beaten choice vs. similar in his first-off-the-claim for Hollendorfer, retains Roman, has solid recent speed figures, and is the one ‘Tank has to worry about the most.

 

RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: C-

Use: 1-Simmy’s Temple; 7-Zuzanna; 8-War Moccasin

Forecast: This is a fairly well-matched group of older $50,000 claiming fillies and mares meeting over a mile on grass; we’ll go three-deep and hope that’s sufficient. Zuzanna, first off the $40,000 claim by Carava, comes off a nice score in her local debut and seems capable of repeating on the raise. Desormeaux stays aboard and will have her rolling late. Simmy’s Temple moves up a notch for new trainer Truman following a solid third place effort behind Zuzanna, and with just a little bit of improvement will be right there again. She’s won over this course in the past and lands the good rail. War Moccasin surfaces in a claimer for the first time and switches to Bejarano. She’s fast enough on pure numbers to run with these and will be doing her best work from the quarter pole home.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Sing a Solo; 4-Bella Style; 9-Sharona Sunset; 11-It’s About Alex

Forecast: This is a spread race, for sure. Debuting It’s About Alex was entered but scratched out of yesterday’s state-bred stakes but must draw in from the also-eligible list. These connections have another runner in the race – Sing a Solo, who was nosed out in her debut – and it will be interesting to see if Miyadi scratches her to allow It’s About Alex to draw in. She hasn’t been permitted to show any speed in the a.m. (typical of this barn) but acts like she’s got plenty of run. Sing a Solo exits a modest race but certainly has a right to improve with a race under her belt. Bella Style gets Bejarano and has displayed a bit of talent in the a.m., though this barn rarely wins with first-timers. Sharona Sunset earned a nice speed figure when third vs. similar over this track last month and not much better will be needed. Low profile connections will insure an overlay price.

 

RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Watch This Cat; 3-Belvoir Bay; 4-Long Hot Summer

Forecast: This group seems to take turns. Long Hot Summer is a prototype late-running turf sprinter with a good record over this course and she should have enough pace up front to aid her late kick. Talamo stays aboard and knows her well. Watch This Cat, second when even money vs. Long Hot Summer earlier this month, gets a chance to make amends and will take them as far as she can from the rail on the front end. She gets a two pound break in the weights compared to ‘Summer, for whatever that’s worth. Belvoir Bay turns back from a mile; she actually broke her maiden over five furlongs in her debut at Windsor in England and could easily regain her winning form at this abbreviated trip. With the switch to Desormeaux, who should fit her well, the Miller-trained filly deserves a very slight edge on top.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT.  Grade: C+

Use:  1-Kenzou’s Empire; 5-Bow and Arrow; 9-House of Troy

Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claimers meet at a mile in the nightcap. Bow and Arrow probably has the most room to improve; the lightly-raced son of Archarcharch adds blinkers while dropping considerably in class and based on speed figures appears to have found his proper level. House of Troy is another big class dropper likely to improve in this league; the Gallagher-trained gelding has no tactical speed but should be heard from late. Kenzou’s Empire represents inside speed and if she can shake loose early he could take this field a long way.

 

 

 

SARATOGA

Thursday, August 31, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: X

Pass/No Play

​​

​​RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade:

Use: 4-Irst; 5-Your Secret’s Safe; 7-Forge

​​​

RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Control Group; 3-Minsky Moment

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Cozzy Spring; 6-Shimmering Moon

​RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 6-Ultimateenticement

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 8-Hold Me Black; 10-Somekindofmagician; 11-Banana Thief

​​RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 10-Appealing Briefs; 112-Summer Mischief

​​

​​​RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 6-Storm Prophet; 8-Jupiter Rising; 9-Ode to the Hunt

RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Mentality; 4-Orbulation

 

RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Delta Outlaw; 4-Bunyaan; 6-Hy Brasil

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for August 31, 2017

Jeff Siegel's Blog |