Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Bel, SA) for June 3, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, June 3, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Tammy’s Window; 5-Kenzou’s Rhythm

The Saturday opener is a six-runner affair over a mile on turf for $50,000 3-year-olds.  Kenzou’s Rhythm was out of his element when unplaced in the Singletary Stakes last month but before that put together a two-race winning streak including a clever score over this course and distance at this level in early April.  A repeat of that race will be good enough to get him back on the winning track, and with “win rider” Santiago Gonzalez returning this Phil D’Amato-trained gelding seems clearly the logical top pick.  Tammy’s Window earned a competitive speed figure in graduating at a mile on turf last month, doing so in her 11th lifetime start.  She’s tackling the boys today but fits on speed figurers, retains top rider Flavien Prat, and should have plenty of pace to compliment her late running style.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Kenzou’s Rhythm on top.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Trinity’s Turn; 4-Individual Design

Bottom-rung ($6,250) fillies and mares meet over a mile in the second race, with Individual Design listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite after winning a similar event for fun when last seen in early April.  It’s taken nearly two months to get her back to the races and she’s clearly for sale, but if the daughter of Papa Clem has at least one good one left she’ll come back and win again.  A recent healthy series of workouts is encouraging.  Trinitys Turn drops to her lowest level ever, is a solid fit on numbers and should be heard from in the final furlong.  Bay area invader Forbidden Command, first off the claim for John Brocklebank, know how to win races and could be the controlling speed if she wants it.  Most of her career has been spent running on turf or all-weather but her record on dirt (4-2-1-1) is noteworthy.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Mr. Twinery; 6-Tiz Indy

Maiden $30,000 claiming 3-year-olds sprint six furlongs in the third race, with second-time starter Mr. Twinery clearly the one to beat after flashing good speed and then fading vs. straight maiden foes last month.  The Jerry Hollendorfer barn is strong with second-time starters (21% with a flat-bet profit) and with the switch to red hot bug boy Evin Roman the son of Sydney’s Candy receives a substantial break in the weights.  Tiz Indy has good speed as well, but because he’s drawn outside of Mr. Twinery we’re expecting Flavien Prat (talk about a significant jockey switch!) to employ stalking tactics.  The Jack Carava-trained gelding has been fading under pressure in his previous starts but if held up just a bit today could prove troublesome when it matters in the final furlong.  Let’s try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Algorhythmic

Algorhythmic may be the most improved runner on the grounds and should continue her winning ways in this entry-level allowance sprint down the Hillside Course for fillies and mares.  After being claimed for $32,000 in March, the daughter of Vronsky has put together two superb performances over this Hillside course, a 4 ½ length romp in a starter’s allowance event and then a 10-length demolition of a state-bred allowance field last month while earning by far a career top speed figure, one that could win a stakes on this circuit (see Black Book).  She’s facing a bit more early speed today than been used to seeing but we doubt it’ll make any difference.  At 8/5 on the morning line (and likely to go lower) she’s an obviously rolling exotic single.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Lostintranzlation; 2-Privy; 3-Empress Deelites; 4-Gypsy Treasure

The fifth race is a fairly competitive maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for state-bred fillies and mares and requires a bit of a spread.  Gypsy Treasure flashed surprising speed in her debut and took her field until deep stretch before weakening to wind up third; she adds blinkers today while being asked to traverse an extra-half furlong and with any kind of improvement could be tough to catch.  She gets in light again with bug boy Solis staying aboard, but at 8/5 on the morning line there’s not a whole lot of value to be found.  Lostintranzlation shows up in a claimer for the first time after being well-backed in a pair races vs. straight maidens.  She flashed decent speed in her debut before weakening to wind up fourth and if she runs back to that effort today she should be a strong factor throughout, her rail post no withstanding.  Empress Deelites has a series of okay workouts for trainer Mike McCarthy and probably is worth including, while the same can be said for Privy, a debuting daughter of Lucky Pulpit conditioned by John Sadler, who boasts superior stats with first-timers.  These are the four we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while recognizing that Gypsy Treasure is strictly the one to beat.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Quality Line; 4-Tanners Pride

Two recent sharp maiden claiming winners head the field in the sixth race, a starter’s optional claimer at six furlongs.  Quality Line settled in mid-pack and then produced a sufficient late kick to graduate from a maiden $75,000 field last month with a speed figure that makes him tough right back.  Tanners Pride accomplished his victory by pressing the pace throughout in defeating a maiden $50,000 field in mid-May; he’s a tad slower on figures than Quality Line but has plenty of room for further improvement and shows a strong five furlong drill since raced.  We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two, with slight preference on top to Quality Line.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use:  1-Heart to Heart; 3-Bal a Bali; 5-Free Rose

The co-featured Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile on turf occupies the seventh race slot; it’s a typically contentious race with several familiar participants.  Bal a Bali didn’t seem to grip the wet turf at Churchill Downs in the Turf Classic and failed to land a blow, but we’re expecting the Brazilian-bred to regain his best form over today’s firm ground.  The winner of the Kilroe Mile-G1 over this course and distance in March, the Richard Mandella-trained horse has maintained his razor sharp form in the morning since returning from Kentucky (see workout) and should enjoy the projected race flow that promises enough speed in the field to promote his late kick.  Heart to Heart was a beaten choice in this race last year (he finished off the board at 4/5) and most recently missed by a neck in the Makers Mark S.-G1 at Keeneland after opening up a clear lead in mid-stretch.  He’s always been a need-the-lead type and catches other speed today (What a View), so we suspect the Brian Lynch-trained veteran might be vulnerable again despite his morning line favorite status.  Free Rose is worth using at a price (he’s 12-1 on the morning line).  Away since December and unproven vs. older foes, the multi-stakes winning has been training very well for Phil D’Amato (see workout) and could easily be a much improved type after his vacation.  The son of Munnings has good tactical and should draft into a nice second flight, stalking position.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exits while making Bal a Bali the one to beat.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 2-Stellar Wind

Stellar Wind came back at least as well as she left when winning the Apple Blossom H.-G1 at Oaklawn Park in April and has trained superbly since for John Sadler (see workout).  That race was franked when runner-up Terra Promessa returned to win a stakes in her next start, so ‘Wind certainly rates the edge over Val Dori in the three-runner Beholder Mile (formerly the Vanity S.),  The latter has won six straight (including five graded stakes) but has been beating nothing as remotely as good as Stellar Wind.  In a race to simply watch and enjoy, Stellar Wind can be used as a no-value rolling exotic single.

 

RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Conquest Smartee; 4-Tina’s Exchange; 7-Aussie Fox

The nightcap is a maiden special weight downhill turf sprint that appears on paper to be a bit stronger than par for the level.  Tina’s Exchange, a runner-up in all three of his career starts, looks well-placed to finally break through and graduate.  Second at 40 cents on the dollar in an off-the-turf event last month, the son of Exchange Rate returns to the lawn today and will be hard to deny if runs back to his excellent effort two race back that earned him a career top speed figure.  Edwin Maldonado stays aboard, knows him well, and should have him on or near the lead throughout.  Conquest Smartee represents the most dangerous of the closers.  Beaten a head when second in a similar turf dash in just his second career start (his first since arriving from the Woodbine), the Sadler-trained colt retains Prat, shows a bullet half mile workout on the main track last week and could easily produce a significant forward move in a race that should have plenty of pace in it.  Aussie Fox is a first-timer with a decent series of morning drills (see workout) for trainer Carla Gaines.  The son of Lonhro might need a race and more distance but seems to have a bit of quality and probably is worth using on a ticket or two.

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Saturday, June 3, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-My Uncle Al; 5-Correjon

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B

Use: 7-Violet Blue; 8-Blenheim Palace

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RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-All About Ashley; 4-Brewing; 6-Monster Mash

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Leaveematthegate; 2-Fulmer; 9-Blame the Thief

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​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Marriage Fever; 6-River Date; 7-John’s Island

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Volatility Index; 7-Shwaimsa

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 4-Fact Check

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Gobi; 6-Tainted Angel

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Bowies Hero; 8-Secretary At War; 9-Good Samaritan

RACE 10: Post: 6:17 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 8-Starstruck Kitten; 10-Prognostication; 11-Harlan’s Hunch

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Bel, SA) for June 3, 2017

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