Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Dmr, Sar) for August 16, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

DEL MAR

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Not too Shiny; 4-Little Bit Lovely

Forecast: Little Bit Lovely has recent speed figures that are good enough to beat this field and rates a slight edge over Not too Shiny, a first-off-the-claim for Carava and a prior winner over this course and distance. ‘Lovely likely will show a bit more early zip today than she did when fourth (beaten just over a length) in a similar spot last month and retains Stevens. ‘Shiny does her best running from off the pace and will need a bit of luck to find room when it matters from the quarter pole to the wire. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Wild Verse; 2-Candyman Garret

Forecast: The main contention in this maiden claiming sprint for juveniles is drawn inside. Wild Verse was forwardly placed in a hot straight maiden event last month before weakening; this is a considerably softer spot for colt from the Miller barn, which sports a solid record with second-timers. The switch to Prat is another plus. Candyman Garret was more than seven lengths clear of the rest when a distant second to runaway winner Texas Wedge over this track and distance last month in a fast, highly rated race. Not much improvement will be needed to beat this field.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B

Use: 6-My Dynamo; 7-Sturdy One

Forecast: Sturdy One loves the Del Mar lawn and should fire another big shot today despite tackling tougher on the one-level class hike after beating a first-level allowance field here last month. She rallied from off the pace to win that race but can employ pace-stalking tactics as well and should draft into a good prompting position from her outside draw.   My Dynamo, away since April of ’16 but training extremely well up north for her comeback, makes her turf debut if she can reproduce her good 3-year-old form she can absolutely act with this group.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Lucky With You; 5-Bolster; 6-Sunday Nap

Forecast: Older maiden claimers always are difficult to trust and this field is no different. Lucky With You returns to the level at which he was claimed two runs back after winding up a distant third in a straight maiden affair last month. On pure speed figures he’s strictly the one to beat but may be a hard one to trust, having burned money in his last pair. Maybe he’ll enjoy the break in the weights he gets with the switch to bug boy Roman. Bolster is a ship-and-win candidate from the East making his first start since being gelded and his first in a claimer. With a steady series of works, the presence of Prat in the saddle, and rising speed figures, the son of Benchmark is a “must use.” Sunday Nap, third in all three career starts, is slower on numbers than the other main contenders but should at least hit the board again in his second start off a long layoff for the hot Pedersen barn.

 

RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-To the Bar; 8-Unusual Taste; 9-Abbey Vale

Forecast: The first leg of the late Pick-4 features a group of $40,000 older claiming middle distance performers in what looks like on paper to be a typical grass grab bag. Unusual Taste may be as good as any; the Bay Area shipper won his last pair in good style with solid speed figures and has two prior wins over the Del Mar turf. Bejarano should have him an ideal pace-stalking position throughout. Abbey Vale gets the worst of the draw but after being overmatched in the Eddie Read Stakes last month returns to reality while remaining above his claim level. First or second in 11 of 29 career starts and switching to Pratt, the Irish-bred veteran is more than good enough to win on his best day. To The Bar is the likely pacesetter and could take this field a long way if not pressured from the start.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Jill Madden

Forecast: Jill Madden takes a severe class drop from a tough starter’s allowance $50,000 two-turn turf event to a $16,000 main track non-winners of two. Most effective when on or near the lead, the Bonde-trained filly has a nice recent half mile workout over the track to indicate she’s healthy and good form, and at this level the daughter of Grazen should return to her best form. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 6-Decked Out; 8- Goldy Espony

Forecast: Decked Out and Goldy Espony appear to be the class of the field but both are coming off an extended layoff. The work tab for each gives strong indication that they’re fit and ready. Decked Out won the American Oaks-G1 on New Year’s Eve before going on vacation; she’s unproven at this 11-furlong trip but there’s no reason she won’t handle it just fine. ‘Espony makes her first start since joining the Baffert barn, certainly can run this far, and is a devoted front-runner who can be very difficult to catch if not pressured early. We’ll prefer Decked Out on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 1-Hotsy Dotsy; 2-Oh Scatty Oh; 6-Quiet No More

Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares meet over a mile in the nightcap, a race that is borderline inscrutable. Hotsy Dotsy puts blinkers back on, draws the rail, and drops to her lowest level ever. She’s a fit on figures and will never get an easier chance. Oh Scatty Oh also is plummeting in class and could wake up against this modest group. Based on the quick interior fractions in her most recent outing on grass, the daughter of Scat Daddy should be comfortably placed under Prat in a good stalking position and have every chance. Quiet No More is a one-placed plodder who has hit the board in her last three and should at least land in the frame again.

 

 

SARATOGA

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: X

Pass/No Play

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 1-Spieth

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RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B

Single: 3-Fire Away

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Lady Constance; 6-Jump for Joy

​RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 4-My Mr. Wonderful; 8-Nolinksi

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B

Use: 6-Rockford; 7-Saratoga Wildcat

​​RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Command; 4-Amelia’s Wild Ride; 7-Zoot Suit

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-No Texting; 3-Mabridge; 6-Damage Control

RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Mentality; 3-Sly Beauty; 4-Madame X.

 

RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Borsa Vento; 3-Irst; 5-Britain

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Dmr, Sar) for August 16, 2017

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