Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Dmr, Sar) for August 17, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

DEL MAR

Thursday, August 17, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Southern Treasure; 6-Kristie’s Heart

Forecast: Kristie’s Heart won a similar event in late June, was claimed, and after staying in the Saavedra barn for almost two months returns at the same level, not a healthy pattern. If she has one good one left she’ll be a major player once again but her current condition is open to speculation. Southern Treasure has won a remarkable seven of 11 this year and has been claimed in her last pair, most recently by Miyadi. A sharp half mile work last week over this track gives hope that she’ll maintain her winning form for at least one more race for her new connections. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference to Southern Treasure on top.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Over Achiever; 2-Jonny’s Choice; 6-Shackleford Banks

Forecast: Over Achiever won his last pair in a romp with speed figures good enough to beat this field, but has been away since March after being claimed by Ellis for $12,500. He returns for $20,000 – that’s a good sign – and with Prat staying aboard we’ll assume he’s as good now as when he left even though the work tab looks a little disjointed. Shackleford Banks was out of his element when overmatched on turf in his last outing (he’s 4-0-0-0 lifetime on grass) but is back on the main track and won over this surface last month in good style. A repeat of that race today could be good enough. Jonny’s Choice, a $20,000 Spawr claim in May, is another returning off a layoff. It’s hard to ignore his lifetime record over the Del Mar main track – he’s a perfect three-for-three – so you have to include him as well. Tough race.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Tiz Bailee; 7-Paddy Jean; 8-Fast Bid

Forecast: The Pick-6 begins with an inscrutable maiden claiming turf router. Nothing would surprise us. Tiz Bailee ran well to be third at this level over this course last month and not much more will be needed to earn her diploma. Paddy Jean shows up in a claimer for the first time and the class drop certainly will help. The layoff from early March is a bit of a concern, though this barn does have good stats with comebackers. Fast Bid is another with the always dangerous first-time claimer angle combined with speed figures that fit. Since she’s unexposed at this level, we’ll give her a slight edge on top.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: C+

Use:  7-Zarqa Star; 10-Getoffmyback; 11-Sindys Luck

Forecast: Zarqa Star is a first-off-the-claim for Glatt (20% with this angle) so we’re expecting improvement from the son of Bluegrass Cat. He gets an extra furlong to work with today and should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position. Getoffmyback won a non-two claimer at this price recently and today tackles non-winners of three. His numbers give him a chance and Prat stays aboard, so we’ll use him. Sindy’s Luck is comfortably drawn outside in his first start since June and is turning back in distance after winning gate-to-wire in a two-turn mile affair at Santa Anita. It’s been awhile since he’s sprinted but he seems to be training well, gets Bejarano, and could fire a big shot fresh.

RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Sing a Solo; 7-Super Patriot

Forecast: Sing a Solo looks like one of those live Miyadi first-timers with a deceptively slow work tab. She’s debuting in a straight maiden event with Prat, so we can assume she has some talent.   She certainly could have gone a whole lot faster in her drill July 30 but was never permitted to show speed (see workout). Super Patriot cost a ton at the Barretts May Sale so you know she has plenty of speed and is the likely choice and one to beat for Baffert. Let’s try to get by using just these two.

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RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Moonshine Annie; 4-Sea Smoke

Forecast: Sea Smoke ran well with a good late kick to be second in a similar affair over this course last month and is overdue for a win. She has enough speed to be make the running if Bejarano so chooses but we suspect she’s most effective when held up early. Moonshine Annie may have more upside that most of these with only five prior races but finished behind Sea Smoke in that common race July 27. From where she’s drawn the Glatt-trained filly should inherit an ideal pace-stalking trip. ‘Smoke gets the edge on top but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

 

RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Noted and Quoted; 5-Fact of Life; 8-Dis Smart Cat

Forecast: Noted and Quoted is back sprinting where she belongs and should out class this second-level allowance band of fillies and mares. She’s reunited with Bejarano, a significant jockey change since both of her wins came with this rider aboard. Dis Smart Cat lands the cozy outside post and will have every chance from a stalking position. She’s won on this track in the past and her numbers put her in the picture. Fact of Life, the “other” Baffert in the field, came off a layoff to register a nice figure when winning at Los Alamitos. Both of her prior races over the Del Mar main track were good.

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RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT.  Grade: B+

Use:  2-Big Day Tomorrow; 4-Fall Harvest; 6-Harrovian

Forecast: Fall Harvest drops to the bottom, tries dirt for the first time, has worked well over this main track for his first outing since June and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman. All systems go, especially if he can make the running without undue pressure. Harrovian has been chasing tougher and should improve a bunch in this league. He’s re-equipped with blinkers and projects to settle in the second flight and have every chance. Big Day Tomorrow also adds the hood while dropping to his lowest level and has room to improve in what will be just his third career start. Toss him in somewhere at a price.

 

 

SARATOGA

Thursday, August 17, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Friend of Liberty; 5-Honor Way

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Heat Check; 10-Brooklyn Speights

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RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 3-Thebigfundamental

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Mojo’s Queen; 5-Veil Dance; 9-Dreamy Margarita

​RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Royal Power; 10-Dark Ops

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Magnifier; 3-Hard Scramble

​​RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Taperge; 4-Summer Luck; 10-Initiate

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Quezon; 6-Court Dancer; 9-Picco Uno

RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Held Accountable; 2-Scatback; 9-Straw Hat

 

 

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Dmr, Sar) for August 17, 2017

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