Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Dmr, Sar) for August 18, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

DEL MAR

Friday, August 18, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Karma King; 5-Mr. Opportunist

Forecast: Karma King, first or second in five of six career starts over the Del Mar main track, has the route-to-sprint angle we like so much and should improve a ton against this lesser field while turning back in trip. This will be just his third start of the year and we’re expecting it to be his best. The consistent Mr. Opportunist (in the money in seven of nine career starts) earned a career top number when runner-up vs. similar at Los Alamitos in his last start and a repeat of that effort today land him puts him right there. However, his local work tab is just okay.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 4:28 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 9-Vegas Vic

Forecast: Vegas Vic lost his best chance at the start with a slow break and did well thereafter to rally and finish second in a fast, highly-rated race for the level. Drawn comfortably outside, the lightly-raced son of Cyclotron can be expected to leave with his field today and if so he’ll draft into a comfortably stalking position and have every chance thereafter. Let’s make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 4:50 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-An Unusual Group; 10-Liar’s Smoker

Forecast: An Unusual Group, freshened since mid-June and dropping to a realistic level, rates top billing over a turf course he’s won over in the past. We’re expecting Bejarano to settle in mid-pack and then wear down the leaders late. Liar’s Smoker exits the same race as our top pick and has worked well since, including a bullet half mile drill earlier this month. He’s won seven of 23 lifetime and should be prominent throughout. These are the two well be using in our rolling exotics to kick off the Pick-6.

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RACE 4: Post: 5:24 PT. Grade: B+

Single:  3-Raven Creek

Forecast: Raven Creek finished a respectable third in a strong race in his debut and seems likely to produce a forward move with that experience under his belt. This state-bred maiden special weight sprint for juveniles seems a bit below average on paper, so let’s go with the known element as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

RACE 5: Post 5:52 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Dr. Troutman; 8-Start a Runnin; 9-Kings River King

Forecast: Dr. Troutman is listed at 15-1 on the morning line and he’s better than that. Back on turf where he belongs, the son of Vronsky needs to be anchored early and produced late and if he gets that kind of ride from Pedroza he seems capable of pulling off an upset. Kings River King is a progressive colt with rising numbers and after breaking his maiden in clever style over this course and distance in his last outing he should be highly-competitive on the raise. Start a Runnin, away since February and making his first start as a gelding, could be the controlling speed and if not pressured early could take this field a very long way.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 6:19 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-He’saruler; 3-Nagys Piggy Bank; 10-Fight Thru

Forecast: Chicago invader Nagys Piggy Bank is seeking ship-and-win money in this low level claimer and the 9-year-old gelding, a winner of 16 career races, has trained well enough over this main track to be fit and ready. He’s more than fast enough on pure numbers to win and with bug boy Roman aboard should be on or near the lead throughout. He’sarunner has a good recent runner-up try over the track at this level and an extra half-furlong to work with, so if he can avoid trouble from the rail the Keen-trained gelding could be heard from late. Fight Thru has turned in a series of solid efforts vs. tougher foes, but has been away for six weeks and is dropping in class like Miller is trying to lose him. The stable has had a rough meet and this Kafwain gelding hasn’t had any prior success at Del Mar, so we toss him on a ticket or two but without much confidence.

 

RACE 7: Post 6:46 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 11-Guns Loaded

Forecast: This is a race that by all rights requires a spread in rolling exotic play – it’s a grass grab bag with several capable of winning this five furlong listed stakes. However, if you feel the need to take a stand, try Guns Loaded. Away for almost a year but training like he’s fit and ready, the O’Neill-trained gelding is good enough off his best race and should draft into an ideal second flight, stalking positon from his extreme outside post. He’s won under Bejarano in the past and appears to offer wagering value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play at or near his morning line of 9/2.

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RACE 8: Post 7:13 PT.  Grade: B-

Single: 6-Make It a Triple

Forecast: The highly suspect Zap Again is expected to scratch, so that leaves us with Make It a Triple, dropping like a rock but realistically so. At age four and clearly with no future, the Machowsky-trained gelding may have found his friends after flashing good speed vs. tougher before fading readily in his most recent outing. He should stick a whole lot longer against this modest group. Small ticket players can use him as a rolling exotic single but otherwise this race is best left alone.

 

 

SARATOGA

Friday, August 18, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B

Single: 13-Jcs American Dream

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Special Jo; 7-Tug of War

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RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1a-Divine Oath; 4-Marriage Fever

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: C

Use: 2-Nuclear Option; 6-Dial One; 7-El Dulce

​RACE 5: Post 3:14 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Missbigtimes; 5-Missimpazi; 9-Tayler’s the Boss

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:48 ET. Grade: B

Use: 9-Caviar Czar; 10-Shamsaan

​​RACE 7: Post 4:24 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Distorted Admiral; 7-Commandeering; 8-Malibu Action

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Pete’s Play Call; 2-Shuffle Up; 6-Alex the Terror

RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 8-Louisville First

 

RACE 10: Post 6:17 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Sanavi; 3-Prize Fight; 4-Holy Week

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Dmr, Sar) for August 18, 2017

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