The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Thursday, August 24, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Levitation; 5-Who’s Hot; 6-Cupid’s Beau
Forecast: Lots of question marks in the opener so we’ll spread the race in rolling exotic play. Levitation is seeking some of that valuable ship-and-win money in his first start since arriving from Lone Star Park and with two wins from his last three starts and numbers that fit he seems like the one to beat. Who’s Hot takes a nosedive in class after flashing speed but fading readily vs. much tougher foes last month; these should be his friends and Roman stays aboard. Cupid’s Beau, claimed in his last pair and now in the Saavedra barn, projects to be a strong pace presence and rates a look off his highly-rated maiden claiming score three runs back.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: X
Single: 2-Vibe
Forecast: Two races back Vibe was in the Ohio Derby-G3 and today he surfaces in a $16,000 claimer for 3-year-olds. However, the huge class drop isn’t quite as suspicious as it looks on paper because the Hess-trained gelding actually ran for $20,000 earlier in the year and is reunited with Desormeaux, who has won on him in the past. The Hess-trained sophomore will beat this field if he’s in one piece, but at 8/5 on the morning line and projected to go lower the son of Astrology doesn’t offer much in the way of wagering value. This seems like a good race to sit out.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Mo’vette; 5-Quinn Murphy; 6-Ragazza Di Viola
Forecast: The Pick-6 begins with the third race, $32,000 claiming turf miler restricted to 3-year-old fillies. It’s a messy affair requiring a spread. Ragazza Di Viola may be as good as any; the Yakteen-trained filly exits a tougher race when facing older foes at this level last time out and was victimized by a poor draw. She should improve a bunch with the switch to Roman, and on numbers is a solid contender. There may be some value here at or near her 4-1 morning line. Quinn Murphy remains well above her claim level and is another likely to improve against a much softer group that she faced in her first local outing since shipping in from Lone Star Park. Stevens rides her back. Mo’vette didn’t get the best of runs when fourth vs. tougher in her first outing and three months and likely will produce a forward move from her good inside draw. The barn has good stats with the second-off-a-layoff angle and this daughter of Uncle Mo has won over this course and distance in the past.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Lambo Luxx; 3-Chips All In; 4-St. Reno
Forecast: Chips All In is a perfect one-for-one over the Del Mar main track and this past-classer will beat this field if he has one good one left. However, the huge class drop for a low profile outfit hardly inspires confidence. Lambo Luxx and St. Reno just finished one-three in an $8,000 seller here last month; the former likes to win races and shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the raise in class while the latter gets a big break in the weights with the switch to bug girl Werner for new trainer Periban and also should be a factor right back. Tread lightly here.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Artistic Diva
Forecast: Artistic Diva has done everything like a high-quality filly and looks primed to win at first asking for the Sadler/Espinoza team. A big, powerful filly that brought $425,000 at the OBS April sale, she has plenty of speed, and barring some poor racing luck should go about her business as a short-priced rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Twisted Rosie; 7-Two Timing Lucy
Forecast: Two Timing Lucy appears ready to graduate in her first-off-the-claim for Koriner following a strong runner-up effort in a similar maiden $50,000 claimer for juvenile fillies over this track and distance last month. She has room for plenty of improvement, retains Theriot, and projects be on or near the lead throughout. Twisted Rosie, a promising second in her debut, seems likely to produce a forward move and on pure numbers is right there with ‘Lucy. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Queen Bee to You; 3-Tink’s Twirl; 4-Midnight Swinger
Forecast: Let’s go three-deep in the seventh race, a starter’s allowance for fillies and mares over a mile on turf. Tink’s Twirl may offer a bit of value at 6-1 on the morning line; the D’Amato-trained daughter of Twirling Candy has improving numbers and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Theriot stays aboard and knows her well. Midnight Swinger has been away since last December but lures Prat for a barn that strikes at a sharp 23% with layoff runners. The daughter of Midnight Lute has won over this course in the past and the work tab is solid. Queen Bee to You returns to what probably is her preferred surface (turf) and may be dangerous from off the pace over a course that has been favoring that style most of the meeting.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: C
Single: 2-Tiz Jolie
Forecast: Tiz Jolie always has preferred to run second or third (he has four wins and 17 placings in 37 starts) so he’s hardly one to trust, but the son Tiz Wonderful may be as good as any in a low-level main track claiming miler. He’s a one-paced grinder who needs to be fairly close to the pace to have any chance. If it’s not him, it could be anybody so this is a race that might be best left alone.
SARATOGA
Thursday, August 24, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: X
Pass/No Play
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-La Contessa; 7-Strategic Dreams
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Djulpan; 8-Strike Midnight; 10-Caribbean
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Remstin; 4-Born for a Storm; 7-Jewel Can Disco
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Industrial Policy; 7-Miss Aja Brown; 10-My Good Venezuela
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Scarlett Jo Hansen; 6-Iwishirish; 10-Desert Affair
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Pinchbeck; 8-Table for Six; 10-Bareeqa
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Weekend Hideaway; 6-Bustin It
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 10-Chubby Star; 11-Defiant Honor; 12-Cherry Lodge
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Now a Factor; 5-Phone Funky Munky
