Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Dmr) for Saturday, November 4, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, November 4, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 10:10 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-On Leave; 7-Kitten’s Roar; 10-Madame Stripes

Forecast: The opener features older fillies and mares in the Goldikova Stakes over a mile; it’s a typical grass grab bag with several contenders.  We’ll try to get by using just three.  Kitten’s Roar, first or second in 13 of 18 career starts, shortens to a mile and should be well-suited by this course and distance.  She switches to Johnny V. and looks capable of producing the last run.  On Leave projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from the rail and is another that can be counted on for a typically sharp performance.  Strong in the speed figure department and fresh from a nice score in a listed stakes at Laurel Park in mid-September, the daughter of War Front is another that excels at this one mile trip.  Madame Stripes, nosed out in the Swingtime Stakes at Santa Anita last month, will be dangerous from off the pace again and was a stakes winner over the Del Mar lawn during the summer meeting.  The slight edge on top goes to Kitten’s Roar and we’ll press a bit with her on top in our exotics.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 10:45 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Smokem; 6-Bookies Luck

Forecast: Smokem has the proper style for this extended sprint distance and should be capable of tagging the speed in the final furlong.  The son of Union Rags has improved in every start and most recently earned a career top figure when missing in a photo in the Barretts Juvenile Stakes at Los Alamitos in September.  The Sherlock-trained colt has trained steadily since, so another forward move is likely.  Bookies Luck is the best of the speed types and will be dangerous if he can shake loose early without undue pressure.  The winner of the I’m Smokin Stakes over the Del Mar main track during the summer season, the son of Lucky Pulpit continues to impress in the morning and is another that should extend his improving pattern.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Smokem.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 11:20 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-McErin; 3-Count Alexander; 5-Sound And Silence

Forecast: Count Alexander won his only start sprinting (his debut) and after two tries at a mile he shortens to an abbreviated dash.  While five furlongs might be a tad sharp for him, the son of Scat Daddy should be able to draft in behind the speed and then have every chance from the quarter pole to the wire.  At 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth using in the straight pool.  McErin has plenty of zip and we’re expecting to see him return to his best form in his first start as a gelding.  A bullet half mile workout over the Del Mar turf course earlier this week catches the eye.  Sound And Silence, a multi-stakes winning juvenile sprinter from England, should be very competitive based on his European form, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll toss him in as well.  These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics while also using Count Alexander as a key horse on extra tickets.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 12:00 PT. Grade:

Use: 1-Heavenly Love; 7-Moonshine Memories; 13-Separationofpowers

Forecast: Moonshine Memories, undefeated in three starts that includes two wins over the Del Mar main track, has much in her favor and should be hard to beat.  Proven around two-turns following her recent victory at Santa Anita in the Chandelier Stakes, the daughter of Malibu Moon continues to look sharp in the morning for Callaghan and is likely to produce another forward move.  Heavenly Love likewise is a progressive sort and may be the one to fear most.  A runaway winner of the Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland over a distance of ground, the Casse-trained filly isn’t quite as fast yet on speed figures as ‘Memories but has visually been quite impressive and certainly seems capable of continued improvement.  Separationofpowers had the misfortune of drawing the extreme outside post but if she can manage to secure a good trip the daughter of Candy Ride will be as strong factor.  She’s a fit on figures and based on pedigree projects to enjoy the added distance.

​RACE 5: Post 12:37 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Disco Partner; 3-Lady Aurelia; 12-Pure Sensation

Forecast: Lady Aurelia is clearly the top pick in this five furlong turf sprint.  She’s fast enough to make the running but can stalk and pounce if required.  She’/s a logical rolling exotic single for small ticket players.  For backups you may want to consider the two Clement entrants, Disco Partner and Pure Sensation.  The former is a prototype late running sprinter but will need some racing luck after drawing the rail, while the latter has intense early speed but must leave from the extreme outside and will need to be used hard early to gain a favorable position.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 1:14 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 11-Unique Bella

Forecast: Unique Bella had the ideal comeback race, winning as expected in the L.A. Woman Stakes mostly in hand, and has trained splendidly since.  She appears primed and ready for the best effort she can produce.  Drawn comfortably outside and with the perfect stalking style for seven furlongs, the Hollendorfer-trained filly likely will go lower than her 9/5 morning line so we might just have to use her only as a rolling exotic single.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 2:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 9-Lady Eli

Forecast: Lady Eli lost in the final strides in this race last year but today’s shortened trip (from 10 furlongs to a mile and one-eighth) provides her with the edge she needs to turn the tables on Queen’s Trust, who sprung the upset in 2017.  Never worse than second in 13 career starts and a winner of 10 races, the Brown-trained mare has never looked better in the morning and should really enjoy this firm, tight course.  In what most likely will be her career swan song, the daughter of Divine Park is listed at 5/2 on the morning but most likely will go lower.  We’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Drefong; 7-Takful; 10-Imperial Hint

Forecast:  Drefong is the defending BC Sprint champion and strictly the one to beat.  Back in winning form following his facile score in the Forego Stakes at Saratoga in late August, the Baffert-trained colt has trained like he’s fit and ready, certainly can fire fresh, and should be the best of the speed types.  Imperial Hint is plenty quick as well, but from his extreme outside draw the son of Imperialism may try pace-stalking tactics.  He can win on the front end or from slightly off the pace, so Castellano can assess the situation and choose his strategy.  Very competitive on speed figures though certainly facing his tough task, the Carvajal-trained colt is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.  You should also include on a ticket or two Takaful, a dangerous 3-year-old who is fresh from a smart victory vs. older foes in Vosburgh Stakes.

 

 ​RACE 9: Post 3:19 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 5-World Approval; 6-Zelzal; 10-Ribchester

Forecast: Ribchester is one of the best milers in Europe when he races over his preferred firm ground, and he’ll have ideal conditions today to regain his winning form.  Second in the QEII on British Champions Day just two weeks ago, the Irish-bred colt arrives in peak form and should produce his best effort, making him the one to beat.  Zelzal, another extremely talented European invader, loves top of the ground as well and broke the course at this distance in Chantilly as a 3-year-old.  He can really blast home when he has pace to run at.  World Approval is the best of the North American contingent and has the kind of tactical speed to keep him free of traffic trouble.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Ribchester.

 

RACE 10: Post 3:58 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-U S Navy Flag; 2-Solomini; 11-Bolt d’Oro

Forecast: This year’s BC Juvenile appears to have several excellent prospects, the best of which is the undefeated (in three starts) Bolt d’Oro, the runaway winner of the FrontRunner Stakes in his most recent outing.  He’s looked just fine in the morning since that late September race, and while we’d prefer a slightly better draw, the post might not matter if he just duplicates his last win.  U S Navy Flag won the Dewhurst Stakes over seven furlongs at Newmarket in his last start and before that captured the Middle Park Stakes, another Group-1 event.  Among those he defeated in the Dewhurst was the BC Juvenile Turf winner from yesterday, Mendelsson, so the form can be taken at face value.  Additionally, he’s bred to handle dirt, is plenty quick, and lands the good rail, so a gate-to-wire strategy likely will be employed.  Solomini, a distant second to Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner, certainly has plenty of room to improve with added experience.  He should at least hit the board.

 

RACE 11: Post 4:37 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Highland Reel; 12-Beach Patrol

Forecast: Highland Reel won this race last year and probably beat a better field than he’s facing today.  Back on firm ground where he excels and catching a favorable pace scenario, the O’Brien-trained son of Galileo can go to the front or employ stalking tactics; in either case he should outclass this field.  Beach Patrol earned a career top speed figure in his romping five length score in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, which was his first try over 12 furlongs.  He didn’t beat anything as good as Highland Reel, but the son of Lemon Drop Kid clearly is the best of the North American team and is worth using in rolling exotic play as at least a saver.

 

RACE 12: Post 5:35 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Arrogate; 8-West Coast; 11-Collected

Forecast: This is going to Baffert’s race to win, but maybe not with the one everything thinks.  Certainly Arrogate and Collected have credentials and must be used, but don’t underestimate the 3-year-old, West Coast.  A winner of six of eight lifetime (and was likely best in the two races he finished second), the rapidly developing son of Flatter can handle the mile and one-quarter trip, has shown he can win either on the lead or from far back, and has worked like he’s ready to produce another significant forward move.  At 6-1 on the morning line we’ll put him on top and use him in the straight pool.  In rolling exotic play we’ll have all three on our ticket.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Dmr) for Saturday, November 4, 2017

Jeff Siegel's Blog |