Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Feb. 16, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, February 16, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 7-Klondike Creek

Klondike Creek is the logical top pick in the Thursday opener, a nine furlong maiden special weight turf event for older horses. Both of his grass races were good and the Richard Mandella-trained colt likely has upside the most of the others in here don’t. Recent workouts indicate the son of Gio Ponti is fit and ready for a big effort for his first outing since November, but at 6/5 on the morning line there’s really not much we can do other than use him as a no-value rolling exotic single.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Sapodilla; 4-Anita G.

Bottom-rung maiden claiming older fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in the second race. Sapodilla clearly is the best of the known element on paper and is listed at 4/5 on the morning line. Her numbers shouldn’t scare anybody but unless the first-timer Anita G can run a little bit there’s really nothing in her to fear. Anita G. has shown some speed in the a.m. and certainly is bred to be quick (Rocky Bar), so she’s probably worth including on a ticket or two in rolling exotic play.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Pete’s Play Call; 4-Hill Four Eleven; 5-Nowalking

The third race kicks off the Pick-6 and drew a small field of five restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claimers. We’ll pass the race but use three in our rolling exotics. Hill Four Eleven and Nowalking are both returning from long layoffs and have serious question marks with regards to current condition. ‘Eleven isn’t be protected by trainer Steve Miyadi – not exactly a sign of confidence – but the unbeaten (in two starts) son of Tiz Wonderful is fastest on figures and will be tough to beat if he has at least one good one left. But at 6/5 on the morning line he offers no value. Nowalking, unraced since May of 2015, earned a triple digit Beyer figure here two races back but who knows if he’s anywhere near that form now. Pete’s Play Call has the benefit of recent racing and is coming off a game win in a starter’s allowance race over this track and distance last month, but is far slower on speed figures than the other two. Tread lightly here.

​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Friendly Request

Friendly Request makes her first start since being purchased privately by clients of good trainer Phil D’Amato, has trained in sharp style since her most recent outing, and seems likely to produce a significant forward move while stretching out to a distance she’s bred to like. She doesn’t have much in the way of tactical speed but we’re expecting the daughter of Calimonco to produce the last run in a six runner affair. At 3-1 on the morning light, this lightly-raced sophomore filly is a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Mr. Hinx; 4-Alsatian

The fifth race is a downhill turf sprint for state-bred first-level allowance 3-year-olds. Alsatian has trained very well for his 2017 debut and could be a better colt than the one that graduated in good style over a distance of ground last November at Del Mar. He lands top rider Flavien Prat and should be rolling in the final furlong. Mr. Hinx is back sprinting where he belongs and if he can duplicate his main track form on turf he’ll be right there. Let’s try to get by using just these two and then have extra tickets keying Alsatian on top.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Brainspin; 6-Skye Diamonds

Brainspin finished a strong runner-up in the Kalookan Queen Stakes over wet track in late December, and after a bit of freshening from the hard, taxing effort the John Sadler-trained filly returns to the conditioned allowance ranks and looks likely to regain her winning form. A sharp five furlong drill last week should have her plenty fit and in a field without her kind of early zip the daughter of Flatter should be on or near the lead throughout. Skye Diamonds seems the best of the stalkers/closers and with continued improvement the Bill Spawr-trained daughter of First Dude will be the one to fear most in the final furlong. Let’s prefer Brainspin on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 7-Amodei; 8-Mr. Louis

The seventh race is a difficult $25,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds; we’ll try to survive using just two but if you can afford to go deeper go right ahead. Mr. Louis stopped badly in a recent mile affair but he’s back around one turn today and continues to impress in the morning, so let’s try him from his cozy outside post and with a huge break in the weights. At this abbreviated sprint trip the Broken Vow gelding might pop the gate and get very brave. Amodei also has the route-to-sprint angle we like and should be forwardly placed and have every chance. His recent numbers are a little light but his best puts him right there.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B-

Use: 1-River Hoss; 2-Nat’s Nation; 8-Taima the Hawk

The nightcap is a competitive starter’s allowance turf sprint with several possibilities. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Taima the Hawk has been away since November but when last seen the son of Kitten’s Joy was improving with each start while earning numbers that are good enough to beat this field. Look for the Van Belvoir-trained gelding to be doing his best work in the final furlong. Nat’s Nation broke his maiden over this course and distance last year and has trained in sharp fashion for his first outing since early December. The son of Decarchy should be prominent throughout and have every chance. River Hoss tries turf for the first time and has enough grass breeding to give hope that he’ll move up on the lawn. Prat takes the call and with a good trip from the rail this son of Awesome Gambler should be a major player at 6-1 on the morning line.

GULFSTREAM PARK

Thursday, February 16, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Remarkable Tale; 4-Boyfriend’s Back

​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: B

Use: 5-Equity; 6-Prince of England

RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Florida Fabulous

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Sassy Astray; 5-Bull Empress

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​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Tanyas Pride; 7-Alsterone

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Cool; 5-Can’tcatchtheraxx; 7-My Sistersledge

​​RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: C

Use: 6-Elite Heir; 8-Biondetti Song; 12-Market Money

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade:  B+

Single: 7-Tranquillo

RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Tale of Fancy; 6-American Patriot; 7-Team Colors

RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Golden Treasury; 5-Awesome Rekha

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 8-Rediscover; 9-Mojo Rising

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Feb. 16, 2017

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