Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (GP, SA) for Dec. 31, 2016

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race”

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, December 31, 2016

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Place des Vosges; 7-Scarlet Honey; 12-Madame Stripes

Steady overnight rains guarantees some type of wet surface for today’s program. As of this writing, the races remain on grass, but that could change. In the opener the French invader Scarlet Honey has trained like she’s fit and ready for her first outing in nearly two years and she did win her debut, so you know she can fire fresh. Her form in the provinces was quite good and in this first-level allowance event she appears to fit quite well. The first-time Lasix user attracts Joel Rosario, so we’ll put her on top while also including in our rolling exotic play Place des Vosges, who charts well here off her clever starter’s allowance win at Keeneland two runs back. Should scratches allow her to start, the also-eligible Madam Stripes is a “must use” and arguably the top pick if the event is transferred to the main track. This race was the subject of an xbtv.com Bullet Drill, to view key works of the participants, click here.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 4-Sly Humor; 8-Stephaniesonthetee

Maiden claiming juvenile fillies sprint six furlongs in the second race; we’ll use two in rolling exotic play but otherwise not get very much involved. Sly Humor, a $150,000 yearling, is being thrown away after just two starts and probably isn’t a good thing even at this level, but somebody has to win and at least she’s flashed some speed vs. straight maidens. The Simon Callaghan-trained filly continues to work reasonably well and adds blinkers for the first time, so the daughter of Into Mischief is a logical contender in a weak field. Stephaniesonthetee is first timer with an okay series of workouts for Bob Hess, who has excellent stats with debut runners. The daughter of Majesticperfection is bred to win early so we’ll include her in rolling exotic play. This race was the subject of an xbtv.com Bullet Drill; to view key workouts of the participants, click here.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Solid Wager; 3-St. Joe Bay

Red hot trainer Peter Miller looks to have the Midnight Lute Stakes surrounded with arguably the best speed and the most dangerous closer. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics. St. Joe Bay shortened to a sprint in his last outing and got his confidence back with a resounding six and one-half length score against a lesser field; the speed figure was powerful and makes him the one to beat right back. Solid Wager won the restricted Cary Grant Stakes at Del Mar from far back and a similar deep closing style will be employed again. He’s also bred to improve a ton on an off track, so there’s that to consider if the rains render the main track wet fast or sloppy.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Arles; 6-Ryans Charm

The Robert J. Frankel Stakes will be contested over ground that should have plenty of give to it. Hard to say which of the entrants will benefit, so we’ll tread lightly using only Ryans Charm and Arles in our rolling exotics. Ryans Charm actually performed quite well when a respectable sixth (beaten less than five lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and this, clearly, is a softer spot. She’s trained quite well of late, so we expect this high class Peruvian import to run at least as well and perhaps better today, assuming she handles the wet turf. Arles has run well over soft going in France and made a very favorable impression when perhaps hitting the front too soon and getting tagged right on the wire in the Red Carpet Handicap-G2 at Del Mar in November. Rosario stays aboard for Motion and will have her rolling in the final furlong. This race was the subject of an xbtv.com Bullet Drill; to view key workouts of the participants, click here.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 5-Daring Darling; 7-Amazing Lady; 9-Rockantharos

Restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in the fifth race, a treacherous affair to begin with an even more so if the track is wet-fast or worse. Daring Darling and Amazing Lady wound up two-three in a $16,000 restricted affair at Los Alamitos earlier this month – they finished heads-apart – and they’re tough to separate again, so we’ll use both. Rockantharos has the kind of early zip that could allow her to open early and get brave; she’s drawn comfortably outside and will take them as far as she can. We’ll try to survive using just these three; however, if you can afford to go deeper by all means do so.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Surfside Sunset; 8-Honor and Courage; 12-Sheer Flattery

This is a stronger than par maiden special weight two-turn affair for juveniles and we suspect it will take a pretty nice colt to win it. Honor and Courage finally gets a chance to stretch out for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and should leave his sprint form far behind based on his recent workouts, which have been nothing short of superb. The son of Unbridled’s Song seems likely to be on or near the lead throughout and represents extreme value at 8-1 on the morning line. Surfside Sunset flashed ability in a sprint prep earlier this month at Del Mar when finishing with interest to wind up fourth in a hot race won by American Anthem. He’s trained well since for Hess and seems highly likely to produce a forward move while stretching out to a distance he should have no trouble handling. Kent Desormeaux got to know him in his debut and stays aboard. Sheer Flattery is another Hollendorfer entrant and a legitimate contender in his own right. The son of Flatter sprints like he wants to run long and gets his chance after gaining valuable experience in three solid sprint races, including a runner-up effort to the unbeaten Mastery two runs back. If he can avoid losing too much ground early from his extreme outside post, he’ll be a solid contender throughout. This race was the subject of an xbtv.com Bullet Drill; to view key workouts of the participants, click here.

 

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Indavidualist; 9-Blue Anchor; 10-Alley Boss

The seventh race is a strong entry-level allowance sprint with two main contenders. Indavidualist ran quite well to be third in his first start since breaking his maiden at first asking over this main track last winter; the Kantharos gelding didn’t get the best of trips but finished eagerly to be third in a five furlong turf dash at Del Mar earlier this month and should build on that performance today. The Kristin Mulhall-trained sophomore makes a major jockey change to Joel Rosario and looks capable of winning on the lead or from off the pace. Blue Anchor is genuine and consistent and fast enough on speed figures to win. The Mark Glatt-trained four-year-old should be within range throughout. Alley Boss is vastly improved and is fast on figures, though this step up in class surely will test his quality. He’s drawn outside and could employ stalking tactics if the situation dictates, though we suspect regular rider Martin Pedroza will try to pop and go. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Indavidualist on top.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B+

Single: 8-Queen Blossom

Queen Blossom makes her U.S. debut for trainer Graham Motion, who excels with these types of imports, and the Irish-bred stakes winning filly has worked like she’s fit and ready for a major effort off the layoff. She already produced two big wins fresh in her brief career, so we expect she’ll fire a huge shot. Another big plus is that she can really turn it on late but also can lay fairly close if need be, so Rosario can play it by year. At 9/2 on the morning line she’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single. This race was the subject of an xbtv.com Bullet Drill; to view key workouts of the participants, click here.

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Crowded Way; 4-Very Hot

The finale is a state-bred maiden $50,000 claimer for juvenile fillies and appears to be a modest affair at best. We’ll double the race and hope that’s sufficient. Crowded Way chased straight maidens in her Los Alamitos debut after a bit of a rough start and seems very likely to improve in this spot, especially if she leaves cleanly. Two nice workouts since raced indicate she’s capable of producing a forward move and at 12-1 on the morning line she clearly offers some value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play. Very Hot adds blinkers, also has the first-time-for-tag angle, and is another who should thoroughly enjoy the class relieve. She has a race three back that charts very well with these.

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Saturday, December 31, 2016

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Magnanimous Mine; 5-Menehune

​​

​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Convict Pike; 3-Disruptor

​​​

RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Woodrow; 4-Sal’s Jet

​​

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: X

Single: 10-Mikes Muscle Man

​​

​RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Lookin for Eight; 5-Pollock; 7-Battalion Runner

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Zorzor; 7-Wannabeaplayer; 12-Risky Town

​​

​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Franklin Towers; 8-Inspector Lynley; 9-Oscar Nominated

​​​

​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade:  B

Use: 2-Moon Over Paris; 3-Akron Gold; 5-Camaria

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Desiree Clary; 7-Trophee; 12-Happyness

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Taghleeb; 4-Quiet Force; 10-Generous Kitten

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:05 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Try Your Luck; 10-Azalia; 11-Island Reward

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (GP, SA) for Dec. 31, 2016

Jeff Siegel's Blog |