Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (GP, SA) for Jan. 21, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, January 21, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Single: 4-Miz Graycee

Miz Graycee doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in the Saturday opener, a five-runner $20,000 claiming miler for fillies and mares. She’s up in class following a Los Alamitos score last month but seems quite capable of repeating with a similar effort in this soft affair. She’s won two of four lifetime over the Santa Anita main track and she also shows a win over an off track, so a wet surface shouldn’t be an issue. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 4-Scathing; 6-Hurricane Callie

We’ll double the second race, a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimer for fillies and mares at a flat mile. Hurricane Callie is re-equipped with blinkers and should draft into a good pace-stalking position. She has numbers that can win and seems like a logical contender, though hardly one to trust. Scathing stretches out again, drops for the money run and is another with back form that is good enough to win in this league. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Single: 5-She Has Charm

She Has Charm crushed a maiden $40,000 claiming field over a wet fast track on New Year’s Day and may catch a similar surface today in this starter’s allowance dash for distaffers. She earned a career top speed figure in victory, one that if repeated today would make her strictly the one to beat. The lightly-raced Smart Strike filly appears to have upside the others don’t, so let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Princess Ashlyn

Princess Ashlyn seems fairly logical in the fourth race, an abbreviated sprint for restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming fillies and mares. Second with a career top speed figure in her most recent start, the daughter of Cyclotron will bury this group if she can repeat that type of performance today. She offers no value at 4/5 on the morning line, so we’ll be content to use her as a short priced rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Finest City

Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint champion Finest City returns in the fifth race, the Santa Monica S.-G2, over the same course and distance of her greatest triumph, and her works say she’s fit and ready to fire a big shot off the bench. She’s always been most effective from an outside draw so the rail is of some concern, but in a five-runner field she should be able to find a suitable spot soon enough. However, she’s 6/5 on the morning line and offers no value, so we’ll use her as a rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Ponder Lea; 7-Wonderful Lie

Wonderful Lie looked good beating a lesser field in an extended sprint at Del Mar in November and seems well-placed to produce another forward move in the sixth race, a seven furlong second level allowance affair for fillies and mares. The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained six-year-old lands the cozy outside post and should settle into a perfect, pace-stalking position, ready to pounce when called upon. In the money in six of seven career starts over the Santa Anita main track and a perfect one-for-one over a wet surface, the daughter of Bedford Falls has much in her favor. We’ll also include Ponder Lea, a lightly-raced and consistent mare in the Richard Baltas barn. She’s solid on numbers, a previous winner over the Santa Anita main track, and should be part of the pace throughout.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Palmer’s Way; 4-Battle of Midway; 7-Town Champ

The seventh race is an unusually strong straight maiden sprint sophomores; it will take a good colt to win it and there appears to be several in here that could fit the bill. Battle of Midway has trained like a very nice prospect for Hollendorfer and looks cranked up and ready to go first time out. Palmer’s Way has been burning up the track at San Luis Rey Downs for Peter Miller and is bred to win early (Gemologist) for a trainer that has outstanding statistics with debut runners. Town Champ has done nothing wrong in the morning for Phil D’Amato, and as a son of Speightstown is bred for precocity and speed. We’ll prefer Battle of Midway on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Denman’s Call; 10-Americanize

The eighth race is a particularly strong race for first-level allowance sprinters; we’ll double the race for the purpose of rolling exotic play. Americanize broke his maiden at Los Alamitos like a top prospect when trained by Bob Baffert; he’s now in the Doug O’Neill stable and looks likely to pick up where he left off. The Concord Point gelding has loads of speed but should be able to handle this seven furlong trip. Denman’s Call, away since May, won his debut here about a year ago so we know he can fire fresh, and his style suggests that this extended sprint trip should suit him perfectly. He, too, is trained by O’Neill, so take your pick.

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Solar Zone; 6-Mintenized

The nightcap is an extended sprint for bottom-rung older maiden claimers and doesn’t have much in it. Mintenized, in the money in his last pair, is a strong fit on speed figures and seems to have found a field he can handle. We’ll prefer him on top but also use Solar Zone, adding blinkers for the first time after finishing third when facing similar foes in his last pair. He’s slower on numbers than his main rival but could improve enough to win if the hood has a positive effect.

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Saturday, January 21, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Lady Coventry; 7-Goodbye Sorrow; 8-Glass House

​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 5-Vennilope Pitstop; 6-Scat Arb; 8-Beach Tag

​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Mom’s On Strike; 3-Family Meeting

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Moment of Delight; 5-You Bought Her

​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Lumumba; 3-Northern; 5-Blinding

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Delta Bluesman; 5-Early Entry; 7-Awesome Banner

​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Cotton Sails; 9-Happy Wanderer

​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 PT.  Grade:  C+

Use: 1-Virga; 5-Contractor Jak; 6-Policy Portfolio

​RACE 9: Post 4:03 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 7-What’s In A Kiss

 

RACE 10: Post 4:34 PT.  Grade:  B+

Single: 6-My Girl Corey

​RACE 11: Post 5:05 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Two Step Time; 6-Enterprising; 8-Go Around

 

RACE 12: Post 5:35 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 8-Awesome Slew

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (GP, SA) for Jan. 21, 2017

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