Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Jan. 29, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Sunday, January 29, 2017

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Cynthiana; 3-Resky Business

The Sunday opener is a one mile turf affair for first-level allowance sophomore fillies. Cynthiana was a bit unlucky when a close fifth in the Blue Norther Stakes over this course and distance last month; she drops for the money run today and appeared quite sharp in recent workouts. With good racing luck from her favorable rail post, the daughter of Into Mischief should be hard to deny. Resky Business has been freshened since early December and seeks her third straight score in her first try on grass. Based on pedigree she really should like the lawn and likely will be on or near the lead throughout. Slight preference on top goes to Cynthiana but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Agent Nine T Nine; 2-Empress Suiko

Agent Nine T Nine drops to the bottom after flashing speed vs. tougher sprinting over a wet fast track on New Year’s Day. She had a right to need the race – it was her first start since May – and the Dan Blacker-trained filly has trained quite well since. We’re anticipating gate-to-wire tactics from her good inside post. Empress Suiko, a distant second under similar conditions at Los Alamitos, looks best of the rest, but that’s not really saying much. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Agent Nine T Nine on top.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Amodei; 5-Mr. Louis

A little will go a long way in the third race, a $25,000 claiming miler for 3-year-olds. Mr. Louis stretches out for the first time and has numbers that fit. The son of Broken Vow continues to impress in the morning and with his early zip seems likely to be the controlling speed. If he’s ever going to get the distance, it will be against this group. Amodei is strongest in the speed figure department and drops sharply while seeking his proper level. The son of Informed looks a tad suspect at this distance but against this group should be a factor throughout. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Mr. Louis on top.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Shehastheritestuff; 5-Scarlet Honey; 6-Ok Doll

This is a deep and contentious one mile turf affair for entry-level allowance fillies and mares requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Shehastheritestuff broke her maiden in superb fashion two runs back and then came back to score again down the hill against state-bred foes. Now she’s in open company and may have to improve a bit to continue her winning ways, but the daughter of Unusual Heat might be good enough now to do just that. Ok Doll earned a huge figure when winning an open $75,000 claimer over this course and distance last month and must be given a big look despite tackling a bit tougher foes today. Rafael Bejarano stays aboard and always has gotten the most run out of her. Scarlet Honey makes her U.S. debut following a string of sharp drills that should have her fit and ready. She’s been away since June of 2015 but her form was excellent in France and if she’s as good now as she was then she’ll be hard to handle. All three should be included in rolling exotic play but since Scarlet Honey may have the most upside in the field, we’ll give preference to her on top.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Winning Causeway; 7-Limited Response; 8-Hawk’s Eyes

The fifth race is an elongated sprint for $10,000 claimers and looks fairly wide open. Hawk’s Eyes lands the cozy outside post, returns to his winning level and looks primed for a big effort in his first outing since early December. He likes this main track (two prior wins) and should be able to settle into an ideal stalking spot. Limited Response drops to his lowest level ever and has a big look with a repeat of his race before last. Four of his five career wins have come over the Santa Anita main track and he’s usually quite effective at this seven furlong trip. Winning Causeway was disqualified from a win against bottom-rung routers earlier this month; today he’s raise a notch on the class ladder and shortens up to a one-turn event. The Gary Sherlock-trained gelding is reunited with Stewart Elliott, who has won on him in the past, and based strictly on speed figures the son of Giant’s Causeway is a major contender.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-Eleutheros; 7-Law Abidin Citizen

The two main contenders in this extended sprint for maiden sophomores exit the same race, a productive affair on opening day. Eleutheros was part of a blistering pace in that race and hung on quite well under the circumstances; today he’ll face less heat and could be tough to catch if she can shake loose early. Law Abidin Citizen, third in that same race that Eleutheros finished fifth, appears strictly the one to beat. The son of Twirling Candy has been compromised by some tough racing luck in his last pair but removes blinkers today and looks likely to settle off the pace and then produce a strong late kick. Let’s go with Eleutheros slightly on top but use both in rolling exotic play.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Crown the Kitten; 4-Atominc Rule; 10-Hobbits Hero

The seventh race is a tough turf miler for $50,000 claimers. Contention runs deep, so we’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Hobbits Hero is drawn a bit farther out than we’d prefer but the veteran gelding always has loved this turf course. After being overmatched in the San Simeon Stakes down the hill last month he’s realistically spotted today and seems likely to bounce back with a big effort. Crown the Kitten, freshened since November and dropping in for a tag (though still above his claim level) should be a late threat, though he’s always preferred to run second rather than win. Atomic Rule knows where the wire is (10 career wins) and is a perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita sod. Mario Gutierrez should have him in an ideal pace-stalking position. Let’s give the edge to Hobbits Hero and have an extra ticket or two with him on top.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Dream Police; 4-Always Never; 7-Country Road

The eighth race is yet another tough event, this one for restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimers at a mile on the main track. Always Never looks a tad interesting; the lightly-raced gelding returned off a 15 month layoff to finish sixth in a fairly decent sprint and today stretches out while adding blinkers for Mike Puype, who has superior stats with the second-off-a-layoff angle. The son of Kafwain switches to Prat and seems likely to produce a significant forward move. Dream Police has a few numbers that would make him tough to beat, though his one-for-15 lifetime record hardly inspires. The Richard Baltas-trained gelding should be prominent throughout. Country Road got a confidence building bottom-rung maiden claiming win last month, has trained well since, and appears on the upgrade. In a soft field, he’s worth tossing in.

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 9-Moonlight Drive; 10-Stormy Liberal; 11-Tribal Fighter

The featured Clocker’s Corner Stakes is carded as the finale. Moonlight Drive is proven over the downhill course, continues to look sharp in the morning, and makes his first start as a gelding. The Italian-bred son of Red Rocks is strictly the one to beat. Tribal Fighter is back sprinting where he belong and has very competitive speed figures under these conditions. He switches to Prat, lands the good outside post and should have every chance from a stalking spot. Stormy Liberal is an excellent form for Peter Miller and can be expected to fire another big shot after finishing a solid runner-up in the San Simeon Stakes opening day. Let’s use all three while preferring Moonlight Drive on top.




Sunday, January 29, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Tiz Bobby; 3-Bama Bound; 7-Danger Bay

​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Publicist; 4-Veblen Good


RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Tanyas Pride; 3-Lago Lindo; 7-Gran Weekend


​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Last Prize; 8-Awesome Bay


​RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Market Money; 3-Authentic Kitten; 7-Atlantic Gusto

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 8-Timingiseverthing; 9-Chief Kitten


​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Case Dismissed; 7-Rich Mommy; 10-Bettabe Fast

​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade:  B

Use: 6-Midnight Tale; 7-Run to Glory

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Moon Over Paris; 5-Always Thinking; 8-Golden Delicious

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 6-Tale of Fancy; 9-Aire Bueno


RACE 11: Post 5:05 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Lemonist; 11-Bronson

RACE 12: Post: 5:35 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-I’m Thirsty; 7-Spring for More; 13-Misty Spirit


Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Jan. 29, 2017

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