Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for November 5, 2016

USER GUIDELINES

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

 

 

Top selection indicated in bold-face.

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

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​SANTA ANITA 

​Saturday, November 5, 2016

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RACE 1: Post 10:15 PT. Grade: A-

Single: 1-Con Te Partiro

 

Con Te Partiro had a nightmarish trip in the Surfer Girl S., encountering much traffic trouble along the way and then getting stopped at a critical stage inside the furlong pole. She galloped out full of run to indicate that had she been free and clear she would have been right there. We know she can sprint – witness her runaway win at Saratoga two runs back – and with any kind of racing luck she’ll be along in plenty of time today. Let’s make her a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

 

RACE 2: Post 10:50 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 8-Milton Freewater

 

Milton Freewater is a progressive son of Creative Cause getting ideal conditions today after a recent smart state-bred allowance score last month. He has the perfect style for this elongated sprint distance, a lovely outside draw, and a nice five furlong breeze since his most recent race. With another forward move, the O’Neill-trained juvenile can settle early and produce the last run, and at 8-1 on the morning line he offers extreme value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play.

 

 

RACE 3: Post 11:25 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Acapulco; 8-Mehronissa; 12-Fair Point

 

The third race, the Senator Ken Maddy Stakes, is a downhill turf scramble for fillies and mares that offers several possibilities. We’ll use three and hope to get by, but if you feel the need to spread deeper go right ahead. Acapulco can be brilliantly fast on her best day, though six and one-half furlongs might severely test her stamina. A winner at Royal Ascot as a two-year-old, the daughter of Scat Daddy has trained splendidly in recent weeks while getting cranked up for her first start since winning the Unbridled Sydney Stakes at Churchill Downs last May. Mehronissa is an interesting European invader with form overseas that makes her quite dangerous against this level of competition. She likes to settle early and blast home and should have every chance to employ that style over the Hillside course. She’s a “must use” at 6-1 on the morning line under Dettori. Fair Point is another late-running turf sprinter that looks very dangerous off her best effort. First or second in 11 of 13 career starts, the daughter of Smart Strike is strong in the speed figure department and with good racing luck should be heard from late.

 

 

​​RACE 4: Post: 12:05 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Valadorna; 5-Sweet Loretta; 10-Noted and Quoted

 

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies marks the stakes debut of the exciting Keeneland maiden winner Valadorna, who looked the part of a potential star in her recent six-length romp around two turns in what was just her second career start. The daughter of Curlin has trained splendidly since that early October outing and seems certain to produce a major forward move as she gains added experience. She’s a deep closer in a field loaded with speed, so we’re expecting her to be outrun early but steadily pick up her rivals and then do her best running in the final furlong. Noted and Quoted is the one to fear most. The daughter of The Factor stretched out successfully to capture the Chandelier S.-G1 over this track and distance last month and has trained with power and enthusiasm since. She’s unquestionably headed in the right direction for Baffert. Sweet Loretta is an unbeaten stakes winner in the Pletcher barn that may be flying a bit under the radar. Her numbers are okay – not great – but she appears to have some quality and should run at least as well routing as she has around one turn. She’s worth including as a saver or a back-up.

 

 

 

RACE 5: Post 12:43 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Sea Calisi; 3-Seventh Heaven; 8-Lady Eli

 

Lady Eli has been beaten just once in eight career starts but you can chalk up that defeat to pilot error, so by all rights the Brown-trained filly should be unbeaten. She earned a career top number when winning the Flower Bowl S.-G1 at this 10-furlong trip last month in New York and her pace-stalking style should keep her free of trouble in what should be a highly contentious edition of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Seventh Heaven failed to land a blow in the British Champions Fillies and Mares S.-G1 at Ascot last month (she didn’t get the best of trips and was left with too much to do) but before that she won a pair of Group-1 races in superb fashion, and a return to top form will make Lady Eli’s task difficult. She’s a first-time Lasix user for the Coolmore lads and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Sea Calisi was victimized by a lack of pace in the Flower Bowl but shouldn’t have that excuse today in a race loaded with front-running types. She has a wicked turn of foot from the quarter pole home and on firm ground figures to be heard from in the final furlong. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but then press with extra tickets using Lady Eli on top.

 

 

 

​​RACE 6: Post 1:21 PT.  Grade: B-

Use:  2-Drefong; 5-A. P. Indian; 7-Masochistic

 

The BC Sprint lost a major contender when Lord Nelson had to be withdrawn, but it remains a contentious affair despite having just seven starters. Masochistic is favorably drawn outside the other main speed, so Smith can either gun to the front or settle and stalk. The Calbred gelding has come back better than ever after suffering a hind leg fracture in this race last year and is strictly the one to beat based his exceptional, highly-rated win in the Pat O’Brien S. -G2 at De Mar in his most recent outing. Drefong has reeled off four superior wins since being beaten in his debut; the winner of the King Bishop S.-G1 in his most recent outing has trained in spectacular fashion since that late August affair and looks fit and ready for a major effort. It’s worth noting that Smith could have ridden either Masochistic or Drefong, and chose the latter, but Garcia knows him well and most likely will try to make the lead from his inside draw. A. P. Indian is facing California speed today but he’s undefeated in six starts this year and his numbers make him a solid contender. If the top two hook up in some sort of early speed duel, he’ll be the beneficiary. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two keying Masochistic.

 

 

RACE 7: Post 2:05 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Pure Sensation; 2-Obviously; 14-Celestine

 

This downhill turf sprint drew 14 runners, so over a tight, twisting turf course racing luck may very well determine the winner. Obviously has been routing much of his career but make no mistake he can be extremely effective on the rare occasions he’s allowed to shorten up. The race on paper contains less early speed than usual, so this veteran gelding should be prominent throughout, perhaps even on the lead. Strictly on numbers he’s more than good enough to beat this field. Celestine is drawn in the 14-hole but has little in the way of early zip drawn to her immediate inside and should draft into an ideal pace-stalking spot. She’s another that primarily has been a two-turn performer but her sprint form is outstanding and she’s a strong fit off her best effort. Pure Sensation has won three straight in excellent company and his numbers continue to rise; the main concern is the rail, which is not where you want to be drawn on this course in a field of this size. He does, however, have enough gate zip to secure a favorable spot and while he’s most effective on the lead, he showed he could stalk and win in his most recent win at Belmont Part. We’ll try to get by using just these three.

 

 

​​​RACE 8: Post 2:43 PT.  Grade:  B

Use: 2-Syndergaard; 6-Three Rules; 10-Not This Time

 

This edition of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile appears to be a much stronger race than par, with several of these having legitimate designs for next year’s Classics. Not This Time has been superb in two victories since an educational run in his debut and this impressive son of Giant’s Causeway already has shown he can handle two turns, something many of the other major players have yet to prove. His victory in the Iroquois over a muddy track came despite a poor start and a wide trip and yet he still managed to coast home by almost nine lengths without being asked for his best in the final furlong. A tall, rangy colt with plenty of scope, he’s a half-brother to last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Liam’s Map, so sky’s the limit. Syndergaard ran too good to lose when nosed out by Practical Joke in the Champagne S.-G1 last month. The Majesticperfection colt was caught inside in a suicidal speed duel and by all rights should have tossed in the towel in the final furlong, but instead kept finding more, only to lose a head-bob. Drawn comfortably inside and likely to be the controlling speed, the Pletcher-trained colt looks to have bounced out of the Champagne in fine fettle, breezing sharply last week at Belmont Park before heading west. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s an absolute “must use.” Three Rules, unbeaten in five starts at Gulfstream Park and a winner going long in his most recent outing, is fast on numbers and it’s not really his fault that his outclassed competition in South Florida was never able to provide a true test. We’ll find out what he’s made of today. The son of Gone Astray should draft in right behind Syndergaard and have every chance from a stalking position.

 

 

RACE 9: Post 3:22 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 7-Ulysses; 10-Found; 12-Highland Reel

 

Coolmore has this race surrounded with two exceptional entrants, the one-two finishers in this year’s Prix de l’arc de Triomphe-G1, Found and Highland Reel. The former is the defending champion of the BC Turf, loves firm ground, and was brilliant at Chantilly last month before coming back on two weeks rest and losing little when second to the European Horse of the Year Almanzor on British Champions Day. This will be her third grueling start since Oct. 2, but she followed the same pattern last year and still managed to win this race. Stable mate Highland Reel isn’t half-bad, either. The son of Galileo didn’t get the best of runs when runner-up in the Arc, and his tactical speed should allow him to settle in just off what projects to be a modest pace today. He had Group-1 success at Ascot in July, and was a runaway winner of the Secretariat S.-G1 last year in his only prior outing in North America. Price players should consider finding a spot on the ticket for another dangerous European invader, Ulysses, from the Sir Michael Stoute yard. Though unproven against this level of competition, the lightly-raced but improving sophomore can fly home and we suspect that at 12-1 under Frankie he’ll at least outrun his odds and may do a bit more than that.

 

 

RACE 10: Post 4:01 PT.  Grade:  B+

Use: 2-Haveyougoneaway; 8-Carina Mia; 1-Wavell Avenue

 

Carina Mia is most effective around one turn and will enjoy ideal conditions in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.   In a field that surprisingly lacks the normal amount of early speed for a race of this quality, the daughter of Malibu Moon should be comfortably placed on or near the lead throughout. Freshened for five weeks since finishing a distant second to Songbird (while nearly seven lengths clear of the rest), the Mott-trained 3-year-old has nobody of that quality to worry about today, so we’ll put her strongly on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 7/2. Both Haveyougoneaway and Wavell Avenue are worth using as back-ups in rolling exotic play and underneath in the vertical play. Haveyougoneaway has the perfect style for this extended sprint distance (she’s one-for-one lifetime at seven furlongs) and actually beat Carina Mia in the Ballerina S.-G1 in her most recent start (though we believe Carina Mia was below her true form that day). Freshened and training superbly, the veteran daughter of Congrats should run at least as well if not better today. Wavell Avenue is the defending BC Filly & Mare champion and though she’s below that standard this year, the Pletcher-trained mare appeared extra sharp in a recent workout and may be coming back to her best. Most effective as a late-running sprinter, she could use some help up front that may or may not materialize.

 

 

RACE 11: Post 4:40 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Alice Springs; 3-Spectre; 9-Ironicus; 10-Limato

 

Though he’s unproven at the distance, Limato has been so brilliant this season in France that we seriously doubt the mile trip will be out of his range. His victory in the 7F Prix de la Foret-G1 at Chantilly on Arc day was stunning and earned a remarkable 129 Timeform rating (to put that in perspective, Tepin was assigned 124 Timeform number in her Queen Anne S.-G1 victory at Royal Ascot). The gelding has the kind of tactical speed to allow for a mid-pack early position, and his turn of foot from the quarter pole home is breathtaking. With good racing luck, he should be along in time. Alice Springs has won three Group-1 races in her last four starts and should adore Santa Anita’s top-of-the-ground turf course. Like Limato, she has a massive turn of foot; however, as glittering as her record is, her Timeform ratings don’t match up favorably with those of Limato. The improving French invader Spectre, a fast-finishing second in the Prix du Moulin-G1 in her most recent start, is another who has the ability to blast home, and at 20-1 on the morning line she offers extreme long shot value in the exotics. She’s a first-time Lasix user, lands a nice inside draw, and gains Castellano. Toss her in somewhere. Ironicus may be the best of the American contingent; he was an unlucky runner-up in the Shadwell Turf Mile-G1 when likely in need of the race and should produce a significant forward move today. He’s a deep closer that will need some luck with regards to pace and traffic, but if things go right he’ll be heard from in the final furlong.

 

 

RACE 12: Post 5:35 PT.  Grade:  B

Use: 4-California Chrome; 10-Arrogate

 

The BC Classic boils down to just two and though California Chrome absolutely deserves top billing, the truth is that he’s never faced a horse as talented and as brilliant as Arrogate (the reverse, of course, is true). There is no gamble here other than to decide whether to include both in rolling exotic play or take a stand with one or the other. Both are in peak form, both have trained marvelously for the race, and both should run as well as they’re capable. The issue is, how much upside does Arrogate have? His 122 Beyer speed figure when running the fastest mile and one-quarter in the history of Saratoga in his Travers Stakes romp exceeds California Chrome’s career top by nine points. What happens if Arrogate runs back to that race today? What happens if runs even better? What is California Chrome capable of if pushed to the limit? We’re just going to enjoy the spectacle, and whatever happens, happens.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for November 5, 2016

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