Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Oct. 7, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, October 7, 2017

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Cause for Pardon; 9-Ima Take Charge

Forecast: Let’s try to survive this maiden claiming juvenile sprint using a couple of class droppers. Cause for Pardon exits three infinitely tougher races and actually has rising speed figures despite not yet posing a threat in any of his outings. Against this group the son of Creative Cause should be prominent throughout and have every chance. Ima Take Charge also is exiting a maiden $50,000 affair and that, coupled with the route-to-sprint angle, should make him a strong factor from off the pace for the Desormeaux brothers. Preference on top goes to Cause for Pardon; if you find the need to go deeper in your rolling exotics go right ahead.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Blackjackcat

Forecast: Blackjackcat seeks his fourth straight win in what should serve as an excellent prep for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile. This is a much easier field than the one he handled in his last outing in the Del Mar Mile Handicap in late August, and with a steady, healthy work pattern since the Glatt-trained gelding should have little trouble extending his streak. Let’s make him a short price, no-value rolling exotic single.

 

​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Puig; 3-Catalina Cruiser; 4-Bardstown

Forecast: Puig has the benefit of a strong runner-up effort in a fast, highly rated maiden dash at Del Mar in mid-August, and with any kind of forward move – or even a similar effort – the Scat Daddy colt will be hard to beat in this older maiden special weight sprint. A recent bullet workout at San Luis Rey Downs is a strong indication that he’ll run at least as well and perhaps even better today. Catalina Cruiser has trained like a very nice sort for Sadler (good stats with first-timers) and probably is worth consideration in rolling exotic play. So should Bardstown. The Stormy Atlantic gelding was once highly regarded but it’s been four years since his only outing, a sharp second place performance in a hot maiden race. He returns a gelding with a good series of workouts, and it may be significant that despite the layoff he comes back protected.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 6-City of Light

Forecast: City of Light ran below expectations when second at even money in his debut at Los Alamitos in July but flashed intense speed in his next start at Del Mar last month and smoked a good straight maiden field by more seven lengths with a stakes-quality speed figure. Drawn comfortably outside and with a nice work pattern leading up to this race, the son of Quality should be able to repeat on the raise, but at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower he won’t offer much wagering value other than as a logical rolling exotic single.

​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 7-Sappho

Forecast: Sappho makes her U.S. debut in a moderate maiden special weight downhill turf sprint for juvenile fillies and seems well placed to earn her diploma. The Irish-bred filly finished a strong second in a competitive affair at Leopardstown in mid-August and her training track workout on Oct. 1 was accomplished with ease while best of a team. Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 3-1.

 

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Roy H

Forecast: This is a race with very little early speed in it, and although Roy H himself isn’t really all that quick he does have the benefit of a comfortable outside draw that will allow Desormeaux pop and go or stalk and pounce depending upon the flow of the race. Vastly improved since being gelded prior to this year, the son of More Than Ready by all rights should be undefeated in 2017 but had to settle for second behind perfect tripper Ransom the Moon in the Bing Crosby Stakes after being impeded and forced very wide by a rider-less horse. He won’t offer much value at 8/5 on the morning line but we can use him as a short priced rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Oh Man; 3-Run Jeanne Run; 8-Royal Bar

Forecast: Oh Man and Royal Bar exit the same race – the August 26th maiden $50,000 claimer at Del Mar – and although Oh Man actually finished almost two lengths in front of his rival there’s reason to expect that ‘Bar can turn the tables today. The Ellis-trained gelding has more room to improve in what will be just his second career start, retains Baze, and is drawn nicely, whereas ‘Man must leave from the rail. Additionally, Royal Bar shows a nice five-furlong gate drill just six days ago that should allow him to produce a forward move. Oh Man has only one way to go from the rail, but if he leaves cleanly he could be the quickest in the field. Worth tossing in as well is Run Jeanne Run, a second-timer from the Bonde stable switching to Bejarano. The Smiling Tiger colt showed a bit of late interest when finishing a distant fourth at Los Alamitos last month and could be heard from in the final furlong in a field with suspect front-running types.

 

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:03 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 6-Insta Erma

Forecast: Insta Erma had a nightmarish trip in the John C. Mabee Stakes at Del Mar in her California debut and ran much better than her fourth place finish (beaten less than four lengths) gives her credit for. She switches to Nakatani, and with good racing luck seems quite capable of producing the last run. In a race in which there are several possibilities, let’s take a stand and make this Baltas-trained filly a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​RACE 9: Post 4:34 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Tribal Jewel; 11-Shackleford Banks

Forecast: We’ll try to get past this race using just two, but It’s a very contentious affair and big- ticket players may opt to spread. Tribal Jewel was overmatched in a tough race at Del Mar in mid-August but has been freshened since then and drops for the money run while being reunited with “win rider” Pedroza. First or second in 11 of 18 career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the Spawr-trained veteran should enjoy an ideal pace-pressing trip from his favorable inside draw. Shackleford Banks seems the most dangerous of the closing types, and after being pitched too high in a good allowance race at Los Alamitos last month returns to his proper level. Van Dyke, who won on him two races back, regains the mount. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Tribal Jewel on top.

 

​​​​​RACE 10: Post 5:05 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Looking At Thelake; 5-Midnight Swinger; 10-Tammy’s Window

Forecast: This is a typically difficult mid-level claiming grass affair for fillies and mares. Use as many as you can afford to. Looking At Thelake has had good prior success over this turf course, switches to Bejarano, and might be able to produce the last run. From where she’s drawn the Sadler-trained filly should draft into a comfortable second flight, stalking position and have every chance to manufacture a winning late bid. Midnight Swinger made the running, opened up, then gave way when it counted when third in a similar starter’s allowance affair at Del Mar in August. Prat stays aboard, and with patient handling today could produce enough improvement to pose a threat. Tammy’s Window has the blinkers off angle we like and was a better-than-looked fifth when facing essentially this group last time out at Del Mar. Her only career win came over this turf course, so at 8-1 on the morning line the O’Neill-trained filly should be tossed in somewhere.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Oct. 7, 2017

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