Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Oct. 8, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, October 8, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-My Pi Romancer; 8-Speakers

Forecast: My Pie Romancer has won over this course in the past and should be the controlling speed in this state-bred one mile turf event for fillies and mares. Freshened since August but working like she’s on edge, the daughter of Unusual Heat retains Prat, can fire fresh, and will be hard to beat if not pressured early. Speakers is the most dangerous of the closing types, and if the top pick gets pushed early she’ll be the beneficiary. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:03 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Avail; 3-Snaked; 4-Krissys Manicure

Forecast: This expensive maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies looks on paper to be a substandard affair with nothing to trust. We’ll go three deep in our rolling exotics but without any real conviction. Avail earned an okay speed figure in her debut at Los Alamitos despite getting no real play on the tote; she finished with interest to be second and is realistically spotted in this maiden $75,000 affair. The extra half-furlong of today’s race should help. Krissys Manicure has some speed but in two starts as failed to display any kind of stick. This drop in class could help matters immensely and with Bejarano staying aboard for Baltas the daughter of Twirling Candy seems sure to improve. However, we’ve seen better 2-1 shots. Snaked had speed before fading in her debut vs. similar at Del Mar in late August and has a right to be fitter and tougher today for the Miyadi barn (solid stats with this angle). She sports healthy work pattern since that race and can be expected to produce a forward move.

​RACE 3: Post 1:34 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-Pulpit Rider; 7-Family Girl

Forecast: Family Girl was a strong runner-up in the Generous Portion Stakes at Del Mar in late August; she drops into an allowance race today and adds blinkers while landing the cozy outside post. Also worth using in rolling exotic play is Pulpit Rider, a runaway maiden winner with a nice figure at Del Mar in her second career start. The daughter of Lucky Pulpit isn’t a quick type but can turn it on late, just as she did in that eight and one-half length maiden score. The winner should be one of these two, so we’ll double the race in rolling exotic play while slightly preferring Family Girl on top.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Trust Fund Kitty; 3-Great Ma Neri; 7-Fracas; Ever So True

Forecast: Juvenile fillies sprint down the hill in the Pick-6 opener. We’ll use four, but if you find the need to spread even deeper, go right ahead. Great Ma Neri seems as good as any; the Ruis-trained filly was an excellent runner-up at 35-1 in her second career start in a fast maiden five furlong sprint at Del Mar and a similar effort today makes her a major player. Fracas seems a bit better than shown; the Callaghan-trained daughter of Violence was fourth in the same race ‘Neri exits and should very much appreciate today’s extra furlong and a half. Her numbers are steadily rising and with another forward move today she’ll be right there. Trust Fund Kitty, second in a high-priced maiden claimer, is a fit on figures and should love the turf (Kitten’s Joy). We’re going to assume that she’s a whole lot better than her only prior outing on grass gives her credit for. Ever So True is another bred for turf (Animal Kingdom) and has worked well enough for Miller at San Luis Rey Downs to deserve consideration in a wide open affair.

​RACE 5: Post 2:37 PT. Grade: X

Single: 5-Unique Bella

Forecast: Unique Bella has been training as well or better than ever and should completely outclass this field at ridiculously low odds (she’s 1/5 on the morning line). If she performs as expected, the daughter of Tapit almost certainly will earn favoritism in the Breeder’s Cup Filly & Mare Turf next month at Del Mar. In an unplayable race, she can be used as a free bingo space rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Gemini Journey; 4-Sly Humor; 5-Norwegian Spy; 8-What a Ten

Forecast: The sixth race is an inscrutable $32,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Any one of the four listed above can win, and perhaps a few others not listed can as well. Gemini Journey has winning connections and may be as good as any; the Spawr-trained filly has been freshened since late July, has shown an affection for the Santa Anita main track, has the proper style for this extended sprint trip, and speed figures that put her in the fray. What a Ten, away since June after winning a starter’s allowance event over the Santa Anita main track, shows up in a $32,000 claimer today, not exactly a sign of confidence. However, her best puts her right there and from the good outside post she should be well-positioned in a pace-stalking spot every step of the way. Norwegian Spy is slower on numbers that some of the others but she’s lightly raced, dropping in class, and switching to Prat, so a forward move is likely. Sly Humor, first off the claim for Cerin, loves the Santa Anita main track, regains Roman, and fits on figures despite the class hike.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:40 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 5-Bold Papa; 9-Vegas Vic

Forecast: Vegas Vic earned a giant number in defeat as the favorite in his most recent outing when finishing second while almost six clear of the rest. That effort – if repeated in this Hillside turf course sprint – gets the 3-year-old son of Cyclotron his diploma in this moderate straight maiden affair. Bold Papa should be included in rolling exotic play as well despite being an eight-race maiden. The son of Papa Clem has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and ran very well to be second in his only prior outing over this tricky turf course. Nakatani will have him rolling late.

 

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:12 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 1-Jes Jaa; 4-Native Treasure; 6-Kafister; 8-Tasunke Witco

Forecast: This is another difficult affair that requires a major spread in rolling exotic play. Tasunke Witco returns at his claim level in his first start for Carava and gets a chance to make amends after finishing a close fifth as the favorite in his California debut at Del Mar last month. He likes to settle early and then produce a run and as such should enjoy this extended sprint distance. Jes Jaa seeks his third straight win while moving up two levels in class. He likes this track, knows how to win races, and boasts highly competitive speed figures, but can’t afford to miss a step from the rail. Native Treasure comes off a win vs. similar at Del Mar and today is a first-off-the-claim for Morey, who has strong stats with this angle. The veteran gelding is most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and is another likely to enjoy this six and one-half furlong trip. Kafister, a $32,000 claim by Mike McCarthy at Del Mar and today showing up for $20,000, doesn’t have what you’d call a healthy pattern but he’s 8-for-16 lifetime over the Santa Anita main track and could snap back with the return to his favorite surroundings.

 

​​​​​RACE 9: Post 4:43 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Secreto Primero; 8-A Red Tie Day

Forecast: The finale is a restricted $32,000 turf claimer for horses that have not won a race this year. A Red Tie Day loves the local lawn (four wins in nine starts), returns from the Bay Area where he faced much tougher and earned good figures, and seems primed for a major effort. The veteran gelding has good tactical speed and can turn it on late, and with Nakatani aboard he’s clearly the one to beat. We’ll also use Secreto Primero, third in his last pair vs. tougher at Del Mar and with two prior victories over this turf course.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Oct. 8, 2017

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