Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 10, 2016

USER GUIDELINES

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

 

 

Top selection indicated in bold-face.

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

BELMONT PARK

​Monday, October 10, 2016​

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RACE 1: Post: 12:55 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Sabrina’s Angel

RACE 2: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: C

Use: 1-General Bellamy; 5-Evolution; 6-Baby Bear’s Soup

RACE 3: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Tellmeafookystory; 5-Ethan Hunt

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RACE 4: Post 2:34 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Risetotheoccasion; 8-Downgoesfrazier

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RACE 5: Post 3:07 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Natalie Victoria; 7-Can Can Babe

RACE 6: Post 3:40 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Hidden Vow; 6-Powerful Instinct

RACE 7: Post 4:13 ET.  Grade: B

Single: 7-Firsthand Report

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RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET.  Grade: C

Use: 1-Neolithic; 3-Tale of S’avall; 9-Juan and Bina

RACE 9: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Jay Gatsby; 8-March

RACE 10: Post 5:52 ET.  Grade: B

Single: 11-Smile Big

 

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​SANTA ANITA 

​Monday, October 10, 2016

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Single: 10-Summer Lady

 

The Columbus Day opener begins with a first-level allowance turf sprint for fillies and mares. Summer Lady has been a beaten choice in her last three and may not be one to trust, but she has plenty of back class, has won over this turf course in the past, retains Bejarano, and could snap back to top form in her first outing in nearly two months. She also has the route-to-sprint angle that we like. Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single

 

 

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Lunar Empress; 4-Roo’s Valentine

 

This main track mile affair for fillies and mares attracted only five starters, so there’s not a whole lot we can do with it. Lunar Empress returns to what we believe is her best surface (dirt), adds blinkers for the first time, and should be a strong pace presence throughout. She’ll have to deal with Roo’s Valentine, normally a dedicated front-runner but possibly relegated to a stalker’s role if ‘Empress wants the lead bad enough. In a field lacking in effective closers, these two could dominate throughout. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Lunar Empress on top.

 

 

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Yodeler’s Way; 8-Dapper Dixie

 

Maiden claiming juveniles meet over six furlongs in the third race, a below par affair for the level in which nothing is worth trusting. Tread lightly. Yodelers Way shows up for a tag for the first time and should enjoy the class relief; the Harrington-trained colt ran well over this track during the summer meeting and likely will be on or near the lead throughout. Dapper Dixie is a first timer with decent works and certainly won’t have to be a world beater to act with these. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.

 

 

​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Cia Bella Rosa; 4-With Love; 13-Red Livy

 

The Pick-6 begins with the fourth race, a decent downhill main turf sprint for juvenile fillies. With Love was a better-than-looked third in her debut behind the highly-promising Zapperkat and seems sure to improve a bunch with that effort behind her. She adds blinkers, switches to Smith, and with her pedigree (Tapit) should absolutely love this course and distance. Ciao Bella Rosa sprints for the first time after three fairly promising tries around two turns at Del Mar. The Miller-trained daughter of Kitten’s Joy should settle into a good stalking position and then have every chance through the lane. Red Livy was sixth of 21 in her debut at The Curragh in a hot maiden race in July and makes her U.S. debut for the D’Amato/Bejarano team. You have to use her.

 

 

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Smuggler Union; 6-Moe Candy; 7-Hook ‘Em Kurt

 

Older maidens sprint six furlongs in the fifth race, a fairly strong affair topped by Moe Candy. A sharp third in his first start in more than a year at Del Mar in August, the son of Candy Ride has trained well since and seems certain to produce a forward move for Sadler, who has solid stats with second-off-layoff runners. Smuggler Union, away since November of 2014, has worked well enough to be fit and ready for Zucker and showed enough ability as a 2-year-old to be given strong consideration. Hook ‘Em Kurt, a close fifth in the same race Moe Candy Exits, was making his first start in more than a year in that race and is another with a license to step forward with that effort behind him. Baze stays aboard for Ellis. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Moe Candy on top.

 

 

​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use:  1-Happy Mesa; 3-Con Te Partiro; 7-Miss Southern Miss

 

The Surfer Girl Stakes, for 2-year-old fillies at a mile on grass, serves as an important springboard to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies turf. Happy Mesa, two-for-two including a win in the Selima Stakes at Laurel, joins the Graham Motion barn and could easily continue her winning ways despite tackling tougher company and stretching out for the first time. She gets the rail and Geroux and has shown the ability to win on the lead or from well off the pace. We suspect she’ll be forwardly placed today, possibly in front. Con Te Partiro was highly impressive winning a turf sprint stakes at Saratoga in August and this daughter of Scat Daddy from a mare by Street Cry should get nothing but better as the distances increase. She removes blinkers (despite wearing them in her most recent win), gets Prat, and is the likely choice and one to beat. Miss Southern Miss stretches out and tries turf for the first time and based on pedigree might move up a ton with the switch in surface. Given the patient ride she needs from Desormeaux, the daughter of More Than Ready could make some serious noise in the final furlong. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two keying Happy Mesa on top.

 

 

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Seau; 6-Sword Fighter; 9-Private Party

 

There appears to be some nice prospects in the seventh race, an abbreviated sprint for maiden two-year-olds. Sword Fighter has some decent workouts at San Luis Rey Downs on his resume for Miller and is bred to win early. The gelding by Wildcat Heir looked pretty good breezing a quarter of a mile in 21 1/5 seconds at the OBS April sale and should be suited by the five and one-half furlong trip. Private Party, a Mineshaft colt from the Baffert barn, has done some good work in the morning and looks plenty fit for a big try under Bejarano, who has been on him in the morning. Seau is a first-timer from the Hollendorfer barn by Distorted Humor that brought $375,000 at the Ocala April Sale, where the high-headed half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver breezed a furlong in an okay but not great 10 2/5 seconds. He may need a race and perhaps more distance but is worth including as a back-up or a saver.

 

 

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B

Use: 2-Money Makin Mike; 3-Motoring Around; 8-Runasaurus Rex

 

This restricted (nw-2) $12,500 event looks inscrutable on paper so rolling exotic player should use as many as they can afford to. We’ll go three-deep but without any conviction. Motoring Around, in the money in his last two, should be prominent throughout and have every chance. His one prior win came over this main track and Sutherland has gotten to know him. Runasaurus Rex, second off a layoff for Gallagher, stretches out for the first time and might try gate-to-wire tactics. He exits a tougher race and has worked very well in recent weeks. Money Making Mike just broke his maiden at Los Alamitos with an okay number and if he can turn in two alike he should be a fit right back.

 

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 8-Bowies Hero; 10-Harbour Master; 12-Big Score

 

The Zuma Beach Stakes is the colt version of the Surfer Girl (see sixth race) and is fairly tough affair. Bowies Hero and Big Score finished one-two in the Del Mar Juveniles Turf last month and both have trained well since, so we could see a repeat. Harbour Master performed quite well in strong handicaps during the summer in England and arrives fit and ready fresh off the plane while getting Lasix and Smith. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring the unbeaten stakes winner Bowies Hero on top.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 10, 2016

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