Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 20, 2016

USER GUIDELINES

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

BELMONT PARK

​Thursday, October 20, 2016​

RACE 1: Post: 12:55 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-My Good Venezuela; 4-Barrier to Entry

RACE 2: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Dissident; 6-Battle Midway

RACE 3: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Quinta Verde; 4-Gioia Stella

RACE 4: Post 2:34 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Hawk Alley; 2-Tiz Paradise; 10-Well Blessed

RACE 5: Post 3:07 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Rediscover; 8-Dark Gemini

RACE 6: Post 3:40 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Debbie’s Tude; 4-Detail; 7-Zubi Zubi Zu

RACE 7: Post 4:13 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Splendid Gold; 2-First Service; 3-She’s All Ready

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-My Cara Mia; 6-Dickinson

RACE 9: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Discreet Encounter; 4-Awesome Anthony; 7-Caledonian

SANTA ANITA 

​Thursday, October 20, 2016

​​

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Golden Silence; 6-Jeanjeannie

 

The Thursday opener, a modest maiden claiming main track miler for juvenile fillies, drew a short field of six and offers little in the way of real value. We’ll use two in our rolling exotics but otherwise not get too involved. Jeanjeanie was off slowly from a poor outside post and then chased a much tougher straight maiden field on turf in her debut; she should go much better in this considerably softer spot and is a major contender by default. Golden Silence stretches out for the first time, has the pedigree to handle the added distance and could get brave if allowed a comfortable front-running trip.

 

 

RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

 

Single: 3-G Q Covergirl

 

G Q Covergirl destroyed a maiden claiming field in her debut while earning a huge number and is protected today in a starter’s allowance event. She’s 2/5 on the morning line and offers no wagering value other than as a short-priced rolling exotic single.

 

 

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Jimmy the Juice; 2-Air Pocket; 7-Broken Up

 

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimer over a mile on turf. Broken Up exits a series of tougher starter’s allowance races and is a first-time gelding, so in a weak race for the level he’s a strong contender. Air Pocket once was much better than these but he’s been away for more than a year and shows up for a tag in his comeback, not a healthy sign for Baffert. Jimmy the Juice had nothing behind him when winning a bottom-rung maiden claimer; today he represents inside speed and if not respected on the lead could take the field a long way. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Broken Up on top.

 

 

​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Just a Bit Outside; 6-California Silver

 

Maiden state-bred older horses sprint six furlongs in the fourth race. California Silver shows up for a tag for the first time and has the route-to-sprint angle that we like; the Gaines-trained gelding lands the cozy outside post and displayed the kind of early speed two runs makes him very dangerous at this level. Just a Bit Outside has a similar pattern and in fact exits the same race as ‘Silver; the D’Amato-trained colt should be doing his best work from off the pace. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

 

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Ponder Lea; 3-Brainspin; 5-Seaside Glory

 

The fifth race is a competitive second-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares that offers three tough-to-separate main contenders. Seaside Glory moves up a notch after earning a career top speed figure when beating a lesser field here 12 days ago; she’s a perfect two-for-two over this track and should be competitive right back despite the class hike. Brainspin seeks her third straight and is a fit on speed figures; with another forward move the Sadler-trained filly is right in the thick of things again. Ponder Lea also seeks her third straight and is another with rapidly rising numbers; if she leaves cleanly from the rail the daughter of More Than Ready will be hard to handle once again. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two keying Ponder Lea on top.

 

 

​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use:  1-Malko; 4-Royalist

 

The sixth race is a split of the third. Royalist has won over this turf course in the past and should greatly appreciate this significant drop from first-level allowance to $25,000 non-winners of two. A repeat of his race before last probably is good enough to beat this field. Malko is winless in this country since being imported from France but this is his first try in claiming company and we suspect he’ll show considerable improvement. Royalist gets the edge on top but both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 5-Plane Lucky; 8-Chao Chom

 

Chao Chom is 6/5 on the morning line and is likely to go lower, though having failed as the favorite in each of her last three starts she’s hardly one to trust. Plane Lucky has plenty of zip and won her only previous outing over the Santa Anita main track by more than seven lengths. She’s a viable alternative for those who believe Chao Chom is vulnerable again. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics.

 

 

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade:  B

Use: 4-Imperious One; 6-Lauren’s Ladd

 

The finale is a $50,000 claiming turf mile event restricted to 3-year-olds. Imperious One is a first-time gelding for O’Neill and returns to what appears to be his favorite turf course. Bejarano could have him on the lead or in a stalking spot; the Irish-bred can be dangerous with either type of trip. Lauren’s Ladd shows up for a tag for the first, is a strong fit on speed figures and looks like the most dangerous of the closers. A slight edge on top goes to Imperious One but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 20, 2016

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