Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 21, 2016

USER GUIDELINES

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

BELMONT PARK

​Friday, October 21, 2016​

RACE 1: Post: 12:55 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 9-Heated Verdict; 10-Tracking Stock

RACE 2: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: X

Single: 1-Chorus Line

RACE 3: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Money Changer; 4-Point Hope

RACE 4: Post 2:34 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Colfear; 5-Piazza Del Campo

RACE 5: Post 3:07 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Littlemissbusiness/1a-Anna Rae; 4-Pure Lemon

RACE 6: Post 3:40 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Spearhead; 5-On Tap; 6-Tiz a Chance

RACE 7: Post 4:13 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Picco Uno; 9-Saluda

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Performance Bonus; 5-Slim Shadey

RACE 9: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 3-Cardroom Shanni

SANTA ANITA 

​Friday, October 21, 2016

​​

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Lil Miss Sapphire; 3-War Factor

 

Juvenile maiden claiming fillies sprint six furlongs in the Friday opener. Lil Miss Sapphire has plenty of early zip and is sure to display it with the addition of blinkers. Beaten at 3/5 in a slightly tougher spot at Del Mar in August, she’ll be out winging again today and if she can clear without too much pressure she might be able to hang on. War Factor has some speed as well and after a pair of runs vs. infinitely tougher straight maiden foes, she figures to stick much better against this group. The Baltas/Bejarano team always is tough to beat. Neither one is what you’d call trustworthy, so we’ll tread lightly while slightly preferring War Factor on top.

 

 

RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Paradise; 5-Glory Run

 

Second-time starter Paradise has plenty of room to improve after showing a bit of promise when second (while almost seven clear of the rest) in a similar high-priced maiden claimer at Los Alamitos last month, and the daughter of Swiss Yodeler has little to beat in this five-runner field. A bullet workout since raced gives indication that a forward move is likely, so she’s clearly the one to beat at 7/5 on the morning line. Glory Run chased much tougher straight maiden foes in her debut last month at Del Mar and seems sure to improve with that experience behind her. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Paradise on top.

 

 

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Sky Preacher; 5-Rye Patch

 

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a $32,000 claimer over nine furlongs on turf. Sky Preacher, a solid runner-up vs. slightly softer in a fast heat last month, shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the extra furlong of today’s race and will have every chance to get back in the win column with Bejarano staying aboard. The one to beat, though, is Rye Patch, up a notch for Baltas after a thoroughly convincing win at this nine furlong trip at Del Mar. He looks like the controlling speed once again and given that type of trip the son of Hard Spun will be hard to beat. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Rye Patch on top.

 

 

​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Sooner Time; 5-Late ‘n Left

 

Late ‘n Left has winning form over this track and seems well-spotted for a big effort after finishing a willing runner-up at Los Alamitos last month. She earned a number two races back when winning at Del Mar that would be more than good enough to handle this task. However, she’s 9/5 on the morning line and probably will go lower, so there’s not much value to be found. Sooner Time, second in her last pair, isn’t particularly fast on speed figures but she usually gets a share and is probably worth considering as a back-up or a savor.

 

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Papa Royale; 8-Big Champion; 10-Jet Set Man

 

A better-than-average group of older maidens occupy the fifth race, a sprint down the hill that offers three main contenders. Papa Royale was given a little bit of a run in his debut and should get serious today; the Kruljac-trained gelding shows a bullet workout since raced, has a pedigree that should allow him to handle grass, and owns a late-running style that generally works nicely over this course and distance. There’s good value here at 5-1 on the morning line if you can get it. Big Champion, second in his last pair and most recently in a starter’s allowance race, returns to the maiden ranks, is strong in the speed figure department, and is strictly the one to beat. With More than Ready on the bottom of his pedigree, this sophomore gelding really should move up on grass. Jet Set Man has been working like a very nice prospect for Koriner and the son of Tribal Rule looks cranked up for a huge effort right out of the box. You have to use him. We’ll prefer Papa Royale on top and press with him in the straight pool.

 

 

​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C

Use:  2-Alley Boss; 6-Mimis Big Boy

 

Mimis Big Boy has little to beat in this poor bottom-rung maiden claimer and may finally be able to earn his diploma in what will be his ninth career start. Obviously not one to trust, the Palma-trained gelding nonetheless has the route-to-sprint angle we like, has hit the board in his last pair, and should be most effective at this extended sprint trip. Alley Boss has enough early speed to be in the first flight, though after failing at 70 cents on the dollar at Los Alamitos he’s probably not one to bank on, either. The winner probably will be one of these two, but this is a race that is best left alone and rolling exotic player should use as many as they can afford to.

 

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 6-Ok Doll; 8-Lajatico

 

Lajatico makes her U.S. debut for O’Neill in a moderate first-level allowance affair over a mile on turf and seems well-placed for a huge run. A winner of her last two starts in England, she arrives fit and ready, though this will be her first try round two turns. Ok Doll has solid numbers, consistent form, and is the one to beat for Baltas and Bejarano. She should be the controlling speed once again. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Lajatico slightly on top.

 

 

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade:  C+

Use: 5-Rcatcanscat; 8-Lovin d’Cause

 

The nightcap features maiden claiming juvenile fillies in a field that looks rather modest. Lovin d’Cause flashed pretty good zip in her debut vs. straight maidens at Los Alamitos last month before fading readily; with that effort behind her coupled with a significant class drop the Yakteen-trained filly should stick a whole lot better today. We’ll prefer her on top but also include in our rolling exotics Rcatscanscat, a fair fourth in a slowly-run race vs. similar at Del Mar in last month but like ‘Cause likely to produce a forward move in her second career outing.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 21, 2016

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