Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 29, 2016

USER GUIDELINES

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

BELMONT PARK

​Saturday, October 29, 2016​

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RACE 1: Post: 12:55 ET. Grade: B

Use: 5-Oiseau de Guerre; 8-Concomitant; 9-Kahramani

RACE 2: Post 1:26 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Show Bound; 2-Canarsie Kid

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RACE 3: Post 1:57 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Into the Breach; 2-Lead Astray; 7-Valhalla

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RACE 4: Post 2:28 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Lewis Bay; 4-Innovative Idea; 6-Eskenformoney

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RACE 5: Post 3:00 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Whiskey Seven; 9-Grand Sky; 12-Commend

RACE 6: Post 3:32 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Bonus Points; 5-Harlan’s Harmony; 7-Royal by Nature

RACE 7: Post 4:04 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Takaful; 5-Adonis Creed; 8-Big Handsome

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RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Lead by Example; 9-Leaveematthegate; 11-Ordinaire

RACE 9: Post 5:08 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Threefiveindia; 4-Economic Model; 6-Stallwalkin’ Dude

RACE 10: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: C

Use: 6-Slapstick; 9-Colonel Andy; 10-Walk Proud

 

 

SANTA ANITA 

​Saturday, October 29, 2016

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Anatolian Heat; 3-Sudden Sam; 6-Brandothebartender

 

The Saturday opener is a highly-competitive entry-level state-bred allowance race down the hill. Sudden Sam, a fast, highly-rated maiden winner at Pleasanton earlier this month off a long layoff in just his second career start, may be tough right back if he can duplicate that form under these conditions. The son of Tribal Rule looks quick enough to make the running and if he can shake loose early the Miyadi-trained colt may keep on going. There’s some wagering value here at 6-1 on the morning line. Brandothebartender can really turn it on late and with a prior win over the course appears strictly the one to beat and a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Let’s also toss in Anatolian Heat, a route-to-sprint play for Miller sporting a couple of sharp half mile workouts at San Luis Rey Downs in recent weeks. He’s a fit on numbers and has run well over this course in the past.

 

 

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Who’s Out; 3-Texas Two Step

 

Who’s Out was no factor in the Gallant Bob S.-G3 at Parx in his last outing but this second-level allowance sprint should be more to his liking and we’re expecting the Hollendorfer-trained colt to return to his best form. He gets blinkers and Bejarano, and if he can avoid trouble from the rail the son of Tale of Ekati should be hard to beat. Texas Two Step hasn’t won in a long time but on his best day he’s always a late threat and a recent bullet five furlong workout indicates he’s ready for one of his better efforts.

 

 

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Wonderful Lie; 5-Arewehavingfunyet

 

Wonderful Lie hasn’t been out since May but if she returns as well as she left she can beat this $32,000 field of sprinting fillies and mares. Her numbers are solid, this will be her first start in a claimer, and she’s hit the board in five of six career starts over the Santa Anita main track. She looks very live under Prat. Arewehavingfunyet has the benefit of recent racing and at 3-1 on the morning line may offer a bit more wagering value than Wonderful Lie. The Baltas-trained daughter of Big Brown has rising speed figures, retains Arroyo, and has the route-to-sprint angle we like so much. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

 

 

​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-One I’m Running To; 9-Sawbuck

 

The fourth race is a fairly wide open maiden claiming sprint for state-bred juveniles. One I’m Running To was a fair fourth in his debut vs. similar competition earlier this month, retains Prat, and seems sure to produce a forward move while getting an extra half-furlong to work with. Sawbuck closed a gap without threatening in his debut, adds blinkers, and was sharp in a recent workout to indicate improvement is likely. Let’s try to get by using just these two with Sawbuck looking somewhat intriguing at 5-1 on the morning line.

 

 

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 6-Aeon; 10-Nat’s Nation

 

The fifth race is another downhill slalom event, this one a starter’s allowance. Nat’s Nation,   a lightly-raced son of Decarchy, just missed in a photo against similar foes two-turning at Del Mar and turns back to a course and distance that he’s shown he can handle. Drawn comfortably outside and with Talamo staying aboard, the Puype-trained sophomore should draft into an ideal pace-pressing/stalking spot. Aeon exits the same race as Nat’s Nation and seems certain to improve as well. He’s clearly most effective as a late-running sprinter and should be rolling under Bejarano in the final furlong.

 

 

​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use:  1-Triple Clown; 11-Rideo

 

The late Pick-4 begins with a restricted (nw-2) abbreviated sprint that has two main players. Triple Clown drops for the money run and this Miller-trained gelding has numbers that are more than good enough to win, assuming he breaks cleanly from the rail. If he does, he’ll be on or near the lead throughout under Baze. Rideo, a good runner-up against a similar field here three weeks ago, doesn’t have much early speed but can turn it on late, so if a pace meltdown materializes he could easily be the beneficiary. Let’s prefer Triple Clown on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

 

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 2-Bobby G; 6-Troublewithatee; 7-Sonneteer

 

Sonneteer was nosed out in a similar maiden special weight two-turn event earlier this month and with any kind of forward move today, the son of Midnight Lute will be in the fray again for the Desormeaux brothers. Bobby G and Troublewithatee exit the same race; the former finished fourth, beaten a half-length for all of it, while the latter checked in fifth after having his momentum stymied at the head of the lane. We can see anyone of the three winning, so let’s triple the race in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass.

 

 

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B

Use: 1-Danilovna; 6-Nodiac; 10-Belvoir Bay

 

The featured Autumn Miss Stakes is carded as the eighth race and brings together a strong field of 3-year-old fillies over a mile on grass. Belvoir Bay is razor sharp, perfect in two starts over the Santa Anita turf course, and the logical top pick, though the extreme outside post makes her task somewhat challenging. She could easily make the lead if sent from the bell but can stalk and pounce if the situation dictates, so Arroyo can play it by ear. Danilovna was visually very impressive winning her U.S. debut at Belmont Park last month; this is clearly a step up in class but we doubt Motion would have sent her across the country unless he was pretty confident that she’d fit. She gets the rail and Prat and will be running on strongly late. Nodiac, in the frame in eight of nine career outings and a fast-finishing third in the Unzip Me Stakes down the hill earlier this month, stretches out again and was a winner at this trip two runs back. She always runs well for Gonzalez and figures to be heard from in the final furlong. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics.

 

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 4-If Ur Not Early; 7-Ann Arbor Eddie; 10-Woodfox

 

State-bred maiden two-year-olds compete in a challenging nightcap that offers three main contenders. Ann Arbor Eddie is a first-time starter bred to win early (Square Eddie) with an impressive series of workouts at Los Alamitos. He looks fit and ready so let’s put him on top. If Ur Not Early is an improving sort for Puype and should be prominent throughout; he’s not fast on figures but may not need much improvement with this group. Woodfox gets blinkers and Lasix for his second career start and could easily be better than shown; the son of Dixie Chatter was very wide and closed some ground late as if to indicate he’ll appreciate this extended sprint trip. At 20-1 on the morning line, he has to be included somewhere.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 29, 2016

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