Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 6, 2016

USER GUIDELINES

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

BELMONT PARK

​Thursday, October 6, 2016​

RACE 1: Post: 12:55 ET. Grade: X

Single: 6-Decent

RACE 2: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: C

Use: 1-Lil Renegade; 2-Spun Copper; 7-Midnight Bounty

RACE 3: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Blenheim Palace; 6-Tisbury

RACE 4: Post 2:34 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Comet Sixty Two; 7-Kentucky Road

RACE 5: Post 3:07 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-J. J. Jake; 4-Samadi Sky

RACE 6: Post 3:40 ET. Grade: B- 

Use: 1-Monster Mash; 5-Dad’z Laugh

RACE 7: Post 4:13 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 8-Uncle Southern

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Request; 8-Roman Approval

RACE 9: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 4-Song for the Soul; 11-Toni Tools

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​SANTA ANITA 

​Thursday, October 6, 2016

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 5-Vai

Vai earned a strong number in a sharp debut victory at Del Mar and will be a very short price to repeat vs. first-level allowance foes.  Drawn comfortably outside, the daughter of Tapizar can either go the front or settle into a stalking spot depending on the race flow.  Let’s make her a no-value rolling exotic single.

RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Warrioress; 4-Feel Freely; 7-Evening Up

Maiden claiming juvenile fillies sprint five and one-half furlongs in a fairly competitive race that requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  Warrioress tipped her hand in her debut when finishing a good second in a similar affair while more than two clear of the rest; however, the number wasn’t great so D’Amato wisely doesn’t raise her.  Feel Freely returns to her claim level and shortens back to a sprint; her race-before-last charts well with these and the daughter of Bold Warrior should be on or near the lead throughout.  Evening Up is a first-timer with a better-than-advertised series of drills and is worth including at 8-1 on the morning line.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Lucy De; 3-She’s Got Style; 5-My Aunt Tillie

Older state-bred maiden fillies and mares meet over a mile on turf in the first leg of the Pick-6.  Puype has two main players, the 9/5 favorite Lucy De and My Aunt Millie,listed at 6-1 on the morning line.  It’s the latter that intrigues us.  The daughter of Good Journey has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and moves to the grass, the surface she’s bred to prefer.  She more than held her own in a six furlong team work with Lucy De last week.  Lucy De, second in her last pair, losing both times in a photo, is overdue for some luck and should enjoy a comfortable ground-saving trip from her good inside post.  Prat probably could have ridden either one of the Puype fillies and logically opted for what will be the shorter price. She’s Got Style is strong in the speed figure department and probably won’t have to improve much to win.  She was more than three clear of the rest when runner-up under similar conditions at Del Mar, retains Kent Desormeaux, and should be doing her best work late.

​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Gemstorm; 3-Pundy; 7-Bold Prophet

High-priced sprinting maiden-claiming juveniles occupy the fourth race, another affair that offers more than a few possibilities.  We’ll use three and hope to get by.Bold Prophet exits an infinitely tough straight maiden race in which he earned a pretty decent number despite being well-beaten, and this drop in class is monumental.  Theriot stays aboard and should have this son of Into Mischief pressing the issue from the start.   Gemstorm adds blinkers for the first time, drops into a claimer, and has shown the kind of early zip that makes him very dangerous in this affair.  He switches to Prat, and with good break from the rail the son of Gemologist will make his presence felt.  Pundy is an intriguing first-timer from the Miller barn (solid splits with debut runners).  The workouts at San Luis Rey Downs aren’t flashy but they’re solid.  At 8-1 on the morning line with Bejarano in the saddle, the son of Langhfur is worth tossing in.

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Drover Crazy; 2-Too Fast to Pass; 9-My Samurai Warrior

The fifth race is a salty extended sprint for $20,000 older claimers.  My Samurai Warrior returns to the main track and is back at his claim level, so we’re expecting the Hartman-trained veteran to return to top form from his cozy outside post.  Two of his five career wins have come over this main track, and a repeat of his race-before-last, a highly-rated win for $20,000 at Del Mar at this distance, is more than good enough to beat this field.  Too Fast to Pass, claimed back by Miller for $20,000 last month (love this angle), is an old pro with a winning spirit and a preference for the local main track.  Solid in the speed figure department, the With Distinction gelding always has been thoroughly genuine and gains Bejarano.  Drover Crazy will have to be sent hard from the rail and with other speed in the field his task is difficult.  However, the Diodoro-trained gelding can take the heat and dish it out, and in his current sharp form is worth including in rolling exotic play.

​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use:  1-Rinse and Repeat; 3-Milton Freewater

This first-level allowance sprint for two-year-olds has pace meltdown written all over it, so we’ll take a stand and use the two O’Neill entrants, both of whom like to settle early and produce a late kick.  Milton Freewater exits a pair of state-bred stakes races, adds blinkers, and retains Prat.  He’ll get the patient ride he needs.  Rinse and Repeat must overcome the rail but he’s a fit on figures and Gutierrez knows him well.  We’re thinking ‘Freewater has a tad more upside so we’ll put him on top and press a little in the straight pool.

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Hillhouse High; 6-Flamingo Lane; 7-Amboseli

The featured seventh race is a grass grab bag for second-level allowance fillies and mares.  Amboseli has numbers that are gradually rising as she becomes further acclimated and she continues to impress in the morning for Cassidy.  She looks quite capable of producing the last run under Smith.  Hillhouse High missed by a head in a similar affair at Del Mar in late August, sports a healthy work pattern since, and with a properly timed ride this late-running daughter of Exchange Rate should at least land in the frame.  Flamingo Lane, a beaten favorite when third in the same race ‘High exits, has races that put her right there and should be dangerous from a comfortable second-flight position.  We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets with Amboseli on top.

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade:  B+

Single: 7-Nextdoorneighbor

Old pro Nextdoorneighbor was reclaimed in his last start by Miller, who did so well with him last year.  He gave him an easy breeze at San Luis Rey Downs a few days ago and runs him back at his (bottom-rung) claim level while switching to Baze, who did so well with the nine-year-old last year.  There’s still plenty of life in the old gelding and a repeat of his race before last would bury this group.  At 7/2 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 6, 2016

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