Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 7, 2016

USER GUIDELINES

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

BELMONT PARK

​Friday, October 7, 2016​

RACE 1: Post: 12:55 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Ragazza Piu’ Bella; 6-Redneck Gold

RACE 2: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: B

Use: 7-Shiraz; 10-Harlan’s Hunch

RACE 3: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Match Up; 7-Instant Replay

RACE 4: Post 2:34 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Felini; 6-Set to Dance

RACE 5: Post 3:07 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Esther the Queen; 5-Queen of Castle; 12-Lulu’s Blues

RACE 6: Post 3:40 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Investigator; 6-Buckwellspent; 9-Massena

RACE 7: Post 4:13 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Burdines; 9-The Imposter

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 6-Woke Up in Malibu; 7-Adulator; 9-Voluntario

RACE 9: Post 5:19 ET. Grade: C

Use: 1-TrackingStock/1a-Contraction; 5-Immunity; 8-Simon Kenton

SANTA ANITA 

​Friday, October 7, 2016

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Captain Akers; 6-Hye I’m Jack; 7-Louden’s Gray

 

The Friday opener, a restricted (nw-3) claiming sprint, doesn’t offer much in the way of wagering value, so we’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Louden’s Gray returns to his claim level for Billy Morey after being overmatched on grass up north in his most recent start. A repeat of his race-before-last puts him right there. Captain Akers shortens up a furlong and drops in class while remaining above his claim level. His speed will be dangerous against this group. Hye I’m Jack has good prior form over this main track and figures to improve a bunch at this level. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these three but nothing would surprise us.

 

 

RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 4-The Common Man; 8-Beantown Boys; 9-Ucanthankmelater

 

This is another inscrutable affair that is best left alone. We’ll triple the race in our rolling exotics and hope that’s enough. The Common Man, in the money in all three starts but with modest numbers, is a Northern California invader that should fit well on this circuit at this level. The son of Thorn Song likely will try gate-top-wire tactics. Beantown Boys has been a money burner in his last pair and hardly is one to trust, but the blinkers go back on today and he’s a fit on numbers so maybe today will be his day. Ucanthankmelater is a first-time gelding for the Desormeaux brothers and also is adding blinkers for the first time while dropping to his lowest level ever. If can run at all, he’ll show it today.

 

 

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Heir of Storm; 6-Tribal Jewel

 

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a $50,000 claimer over a mile on the main track. Tribal Jewel is double-jumped in class off a $32,000 Spawr claim in a sign of confidence and is a tough veteran gelding with excellent prior form over the Santa Anita main track (first or second in eight of 13 career starts). His numbers are solid and Bejarano stays aboard. Heir of Storm stretches out for the first time and if he’s ever going to get the trip, it will be today. Prat will put him on the front end and play come and catch me. We’ll give Tribal Jewel the edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

 

​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Fast Magoo; 5-Altaira; 8-Shakeitupbetty

 

Bottom-rung sprinting fillies and mares occupy the fourth race; it’s another open, untrustworthy affair that has several possibilities. Altaira won at this level two races back and then missed in a photo in a decent starter’s allowance dash at Los Alamitos two weeks ago. She’s hit the board in all four of her prior outings over this main track without winning but her numbers put her right in the thick of things again. Fast Magoo has plenty of zip but always is suspect under pressure in the final stages. She does like this track – four prior wins – and although she weakened under pressure when favored at Los Alamitos last time out she could get brave with a return to her preferred strip. Shakeitupbetty seems capable of being a late threat if held up early by Desormeaux. At 5-1 on the morning line she has to be included.

 

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Peach Cove; 5-Longstocking

 

Longstocking seems to have found her niche as a late-running turf sprinter. Both of her races on the Del Mar grass were quite good and with a bit of racing luck in her most recent outing the daughter Into Mischief probably would have tagged the speed. Today she gets an extra furlong and a half to work with and we’re expecting Smith to have her along in time. There’s excellent value here if you can get close to her 7/2 morning line. As a saver, we’ll also use Peach Cove. The Mandella-trained import found her best stride too late when fourth, beaten just a length, in her U.S. debut at Del Mar in late July in what has proven to be a productive race. A similar effort today puts her right there.

 

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RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Amodei; 2-Jet Ski; 5-Closing Time

 

Maiden two-year fillies meet over a mile on the main track with preference on top going to Jet Ski. She has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern, adds blinkers, and has a pedigree that should enable her to get the distance. Amodei trying two-turns for the first time and she, too, is bred to improve going long. On numbers she’s right there with Jet Ski and might be quick enough to make the running from her favorable inside draw. Closing Time has a significant edge on numbers and seems sure to go favored (she’s 9/5 on the morning line). The daughter of Slew’s Tiznow is bred to sprint, so we’re less confident of her ability to project her form over a route of ground, but the Mullins barn has solid stats with sprint-to-route plays and Baze knows her and stays aboard. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two using Jet Ski on top.

 

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Avanti Bello; 7-Chief of Staff

 

Avanti Bello returns to the allowance ranks after six consecutive outings in added money events, and the class relief should allow this colt to return to winning form. The O’Neill-trained son of Include doesn’t need the lead to win but could easily inherit the role as the controlling speed in a race that really doesn’t have all that much in it. Chief of Staff has a look if he can repeat his highly-rated win at Del Mar two races back. The Hollendorfer-trained colt looks likely to draft into a good stalking spot and have every chance.

 

 

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade:  B-

Use: 3-Merilore; 8-Shysheisnot

 

The finale is a $25,000 claiming grass grab bag for older fillies and mares. Let’s see if we can survive using just two. Merilore won at this level at Del Mar in a one mile affair and shouldn’t be inconvenienced by today’s extra furlong. Gonzalez stays aboard and will have her running on strongly late. Shysheisnot is a first-off the-claim for Miller (superior stats with this angle), switches to Bejarano, and has won twice in the past over the Santa Anita turf course. She was the beaten favorite in the race that Merilore just won but there’s a four pound weight shift in her favor today so she could easily turn the tables. We’ll give Shysheisnot a bit of an edge and have an extra ticket or two with her in the straight pool.

 

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 7, 2016

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