Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 8, 2016

USER GUIDELINES

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

BELMONT PARK

​Saturday, October 8, 2016​

RACE 1: Post: 12:15 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Come Around; 5-Get Jets; 10-Hurry Up Alan

RACE 2: Post 12:47 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-American Deluxe; 2-California Swing; 4-Data Room

RACE 3: Post 1:20 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-South Sea; 4-Son of a Saint

RACE 4: Post 1:53 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Sky Gesture; 3-Nonna Mela; 4-Yellow Agate

RACE 5: Post 2:28 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Tamarkuz; 6-Upstart

RACE 6: Post 3:03 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Lady Eli; 6-Sea Calisi

RACE 7: Post 3:38 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Disco Partner; 5-Pure Sensation

RACE 8: Post 4:13 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Practical Joke; 5-Favorable Outcome

RACE 9: Post 4:48 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 7-Monster Bea; 10-Beach Patrol

RACE 10: Post 5:23.  GRADE: B-

Use: 2-Mubtaahij; 6-Effinex

RACE 11: Post 5:58.  GRADE: C+

Use: 6-Mr Harlan; 9-Lead By Example; 12-Dot Matrix

SANTA ANITA 

​Saturday, October 8, 2016

​​

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Watch This Cat; 7-Midnight Swinger

 

Watch This Cat earned a career-top speed figure when missing in a photo vs. similar at Del Mar in mid-August, has trained steadily since, and appears to have the proper style for this Hillside Turf Course. Bejarano stays aboard for Baltas (powerful jockey/trainer combo) and should have the daughter of Eskendreya in a comfortable second flight, stalking position, ready to pounce. Like Watch the Cat, Midnight Swinger has the route-to-sprint angle that we like so much and this lightly-race daughter of Midnight Lute has plenty of improvement in her. A bullet blowout earlier this week catches the eye. We’ll give Watch the Cat a slight edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

 

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 7-Fantasy of Luck

 

Fantasy of Luck has much in her favor and we suspect she’ll leave considerably lower than her morning line of 5/2. The Baffert-trained filly missed by less than a length while more than three clear of the rest when earning a career top speed figure in her most recent start at Del Mar in mid-August, and a healthy work pattern since that race indicates she’s ready for another forward move. Bejarano knows her well and should have her on or near the lead throughout. Let’s make her a short-priced rolling exotic single.

 

 

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: Sonneteer; 3-Term of Art

 

Sonneteer has two sprints under his belt and now looks ready to stretch out and win. The son of Midnight Lute produced a significant forward move in the speed figure department when finishing a closing fourth, beaten two lengths, in a representative maiden special weight sprint at Del Mar, lands a good inside post while switching to Espinoza, and catches what appears to be a below par field of maiden juveniles. He’s a solid top selections for us, but we’ll also have a ticket as a saver using Term of Art, in the money in both of his starts though beaten as the favorite when second without mishap in a maiden two-turner at Del Mar last time out.

 

 

​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Lord Nelson

 

Lord Nelson is unbeaten in three 2016 outings, most recently winning the Bing Crosby S.-G1 at Del Mar with a career-top speed figure. He can fire fresh and simply out-classes this field at what will be far too short of a price to play. You can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

 

 

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Into the Mystic; 5-Kitcat; 9-Prize Exhibit

 

Into the Mystic was a highly-impressive winner of her U.S. debut vs. conditioned allowance company at Del Mar in August and tackles stakes competition in this listed affair for fillies and mares. Her form in France was good – not great – but she could easily be a better type now and further improvement is likely for the always-potent Mandella/Prat team. The daughter of Galileo looks capable of producing a winning late bid. Kitcat, a multiple Group-1 winner in Chile, makes her North American debut in her first outing since May. She arrived a couple of months ago and shows a short but sharp local work tab, so it’s hard to know just how cranked up she is. This race is supposed to be a prep for the Breeders’ Cup Mile, for which she’s eligible after taking a designated win-and-you’re-in race in South America. She’s a first-time Lasix user and has been first or second in 10 of 13 lifetime outings, so we have to include her. Prize Exhibit has been facing genuine graded stakes company most of the year and probably should have won the Osunitas Stakes two races back at Del Mar. She likes to sit back and then blast home and her best effort makes her dangerous. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Into The Mystic on top.

 

 

​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: C

Use:  2-Derby Music; 3-Sizzlin Square; 5-The All Button

 

This is a challenging starter’s allowance sprint for juveniles, requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Use as many as you can afford to. Sizzlin Square has won two of four lifetime including a maiden special weight affair over this track in his debut in July; the O’Neill-trained colt switches to Prat and should be on or near the lead throughout. Derby Music earned a vastly improved speed figure when rallying from well back to win a high-priced maiden claimer at Del Mar last month. That style may not work quite as well over this track, but he does have an extra half-furlong today to aid his late kick and despite low profile connections he’s a major contender right back. The All Button won a lesser maiden claimer at Del Mar in decent style and today shows up as first-time gelding. If he can produce a bit of a forward move he’ll be competitive despite the class hike.

 

 

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 6-Rideo; 10-Redneck Crazy

 

This restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint has little in it to trust, so we’re not going to get heavily involved. Redneck Crazy is just 1-for-17 (and winless in 12 starts this year), but he’s drawn comfortable outside, has hit the board in three of his last four starts and is a solid fit in the speed figure department. Pedroza should have him in an ideal stalking spot. Rideo was overmatched in his last race but his maiden claiming win at Del Mar two runs back charts very well with this group and this extended sprint distance compliments his late-running style. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but not with any great deal of conviction.

 

 

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B

Use: 4-Om; 8-Obviously

 

Obviously hasn’t been out since narrowly missing the world record when winning the Poker S.-G3 at Belmont Park in mid-June but he’s been known to fire fresh and has trained like he’s fit and ready for Phil D’Amato (excellent 23% with layoff runners). The veteran gelding, as always, will be the controlling speed. Om earned a career top number when an excellent runner-up to Midnight Storm in the Del Mar Mile Handicap in his last start and figures to settle in right behind Obviously in an ideal stalking position and have every chance when it matters. We’ll prefer Obviously on top but double the race in our rolling exotics.

 

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 9-Westmount; 11-Downside Up

 

Westmount has the dangerous blinkers-off angle working for him and we’re expecting his early speed to be more effective over the Santa Anita main track than it was at Del Mar. Perez will take him on the lead as far as he can go in this soft maiden $50,000 claimer for state-bred juveniles. Downside Up actually finished first in a similar race over this track in June but was disqualified, so he’s still a maiden. He’s drawn comfortably outside and should be first over on Westmount if that one starts feeling the pressure. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise tread lightly.

 

 

RACE 10: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Siberian Iris; 10-Partyinthepaddock

 

Partyinthepaddock ran a winning race in defeat when settling for second behind the hot first-timer American Girl in a fast, highly-rated juvenile sprint at Del Mar. That effort, if repeated, should be more than good enough to beat this group, but today the daughter of Harlan’s Holiday will try her luck over the tricky Hillside Turf Course, so for protection we’ll also include on a ticket to two the debuting Siberian Iris, an Irish-bred with superior turf breeding on both sides of her pedigree. A series of good workouts for the powerful Mandella/Pratt trainer-jockey team makes her a threat.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for October 8, 2016

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