Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA) for April 16, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, April 16, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Handfull; 3-Josephine’s Moment

The Easter Sunday opener is a $25,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. Handfull stopped badly in an allowance race over this course last month but shortens a furlong to a flat mile and drops significantly in class. Rafael Bejarano stays aboard – a positive sign – and a recent workout indicates the veteran mare still has some spark. Let’s give her a chance to bounce back while also including Josephine’s Moment. First off the claim for Eddie Truman following a runaway win for $20,000 over a wet-fast track in January, she finally makes it back to the races almost three months later so she obviously has had some issues. Recent workouts are promising, so let’s expect her to return as well as she left, especially with the switch to leading jockey Flavien Prat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Handfull

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-City Steel; 3-Got Even

The second race is a $50,000 main track claimer that drew only five starters. Got Even returns to his winning level after being pitched a bit too high vs. optional/claiming $62,500 company in his last pair. Always most effective on the front end, the Bill Spawr-trained gelding looks to be the controlling speed again and given that type of trip he’ll be hard to catch. City Steel moves up a notch following a nice middle distance score last month and the Rafael Becerra-trained gelding should enjoy a similar second flight, stalking trip. A winner of 11 races during his career, the son of City Zip should fire another big shot today. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with Got Even receiving the edge on top.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-My Italian Babbo; 5-Freddies Dream

State-bred entry-level/optional claimers meet at a mile and one-sixteenth in the third race, another five-runner affair with two major players. Freddies Dream has earned consistently good speed figures lately and seems the solid top choice after chasing tougher company in his last pair. The Jack Carava-trained gelding beat a similar field three runs back and looks capable of producing the last run. Though he could no better than a distant second as the favorite in a similar affair last month, My Italian Babbo earned a career top speed figure in doing so and won’t have to improve much to make amends today. We’re expecting this son of Papa Clem to be on the front end where he seems most dangerous. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Freddies Dream on top.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Madame Stripes; 5-Pacific Heat; 7-Ceeme Run Wild

In her first start since last fall, Madame Stripes wasn’t hard ridden and lacked a clear path when beaten just over three lengths in a similar affair last month. We’re expecting a more aggressive ride today and a much more serious effort from the Neil Drysdale-trained import, who seems more than capable of improving enough to spring a mild surprise. Pacific Heat has trained well enough to be fit and ready for a top effort in her first outing in more than a year, and if she’s left alone on the front end she’ll be especially hard to catch. The daughter of Unusual Heat won the Cal Cup Oaks over this course and distance last year and she is reunited with Rafael Bejarano, who has won on her when she broke her maiden. Ceeme Run Wild, never off the board in three starts over this turf course, should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position and have every chance. The lightly-raced daughter of Tiznow continues to impress in the morning and has room for further improvement.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-The Topester; 5-Papa Royale

Bottom-rung older maiden claimers sprint seven furlongs in the fifth race. Papa Royale drops to his lowest level ever, adds blinkers for the first time, exits a fast, highly-rated race and should be able to produce the last run. However, at 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he may not offer much in the way of value. The Topester missed by a neck when dropped to this level last time out while more than three clear of the rest and should at least out finish the others. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with strong preference on top to Papa Royale.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 6-Ziconic; 7-Latitude

Ziconic and Latitude finished two-three in a similar straight maiden event over a mile on grass last month and both should appreciate today’s extra furlong. On pure numbers both are considerably faster the others in the field, with Zenyatta’s son Ziconic getting his best chance yet to earn his diploma in his sixth career start. We’ll put him on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 1-She’sluckythatway

In the money in both of her career outings and facing a weak field of maiden $30,000 claiming fillies, She’sluckythatway is 6/5 on the morning line and looks every bit of it on form. The rail is of some concern at this seven furlong trip, especially for a filly who has yet to break with her field, but the daughter of Lookin At Lucky should be along in plenty of time with even the slightest of improvement. Let’s make her a no-value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 1-Bobby Abu Dhabi

Trainer Peter Miller has two of the five runners in the San Pedro Stakes, the more accomplished of the two clearly being Bobby Abu Dhabi, whose only defeat in three starts came when routing (and overmatched) in the Los Alamitos Futurity last December. A sharp allowance winner in his comeback last month, the son of Macho Uno was a bit unlucky to have drawn the rail, but with clean start the inside post shouldn’t be an issue. He’s 9/5 on the morning line but we expect him to go lower, so let’s make him a rolling exotic single and leave it at that.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-American League; 6-Rprettyboyfloyd

The finale is a restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claiming miler on grass. American League is the 8/5 favorite with much in his favor; the Mike McCarthy-trained gelding stretches out after exiting a hot sprint, lands the good rail, and switches to Prat. The mile trip is within his range, and with the rail at 30 feet he should be able to take this group gate-to-wire. Rprettyboyfloyd likes to run second and third far more than he likes to win, but in this restricted affair he seems like a logical exacta partner with our top pick. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics but strongly prefer American League on top.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA) for April 16, 2017

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