Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA) for April 6, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, April 6, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: V

Use: 4-Jill Madden; 6-Road Test

The Thursday opener is a six runner affair for $50,000 maiden claiming fillies and mares over a mile. Jill Madden has burned money in her last pair when finishing second as the favorite, but she’s stretching out for the first time and looks very much like the controlling speed. She earned a career top speed figure in her last race and shows a bullet work since, so the daughter of Grazen deserves top billing. Road Test was a well-beaten second to the talented Dalsaros in straight maiden company last time out and this group obviously isn’t of that level. On pure numbers she’s a strong fit.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-True Testament; 9-Diva La Mousse

True Testament has hit the board in six of seven career starts and is overdue for a win. This appears to be her best chance yet after chasing the stakes-quality filly Paradise Woods in her most recent outing. She’s run well over this course in the past, makes a major jockey switch to Mike Smith, and offers considerable value at her morning line of 5-1 if you can get it. Diva La Mousse has plenty of zip and will take them as far as she can. Third in her last pair, she’s reunited with jockey Rafael Bejarano, who has gotten run out of her in the past, so the daughter of Hat Trick seems like a logical exacta partner with ‘Testament. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Easter Fever

Easter Fever just beat a tougher field so this bottom-of-the-barrel claimer for fillies and mares should be easy pickings for her right back, hence her 50 cents on the dollar on the morning line. Obviously, there’s no value to be found; you can use her as a rolling exotic single if you like or simply pass the race.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Stealth Drone; 6-Stealth Drone

Stealth Drone moves up a notch following a sharp score for $25,000 last month. She knows how to win, loves this track, and should be double tough on the raise. Pico Chick is the one fear most; the daughter of First Dude was in too tough vs. allowance foes in her last appearance but two races back won at this level in convincing fashion.   She lands the cozy outside post and is reunited with leading jockey Flavin Prat, who was aboard in her most recent win. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Stealth Drone slightly on top.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-Algorhythmic; 7-Sly Humor

Starter allowance fillies and mares sprint down the hill in the fifth race; we’ll use two and hope that’s enough. Sly Humor was nailed right on the money when missing as the favorite in a similar event on the main track last month. She can make amends today if she handles the turf, and there’s no reason why she shouldn’t. Algorhythmic, first off the claim for Mike Machowshky, boasts a prior win over this course and distance and could easily regain her winning form if she receives the patient ride she prefers. Though she finished off the board the day she was haltered, the daughter of Vronsky is protected today in what we take as a sign of confidence.

 

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 7-Gato Dolce

Bottom-rung maiden claimers sprint five and one-half furlongs in the sixth race, a modest affair with little in the way of contention. Gato Dolce has been a well-bet failure in his last pair – two runs back he was beaten at 20 cents on the dollar – and certainly isn’t one to trust, though his best race is more than good enough to beat this group. In a race that is best left alone, you can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply sit it out.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Sharp Samurai; 6-Glacier; 7-Offshore

Glacier is a progressive son of Broken Vow fresh from a sharp maiden score at a mile over this course and acts like a colt that will benefit from today’s extra furlong. The Bob Baffert-trained stretch-runner retains Bejarano and should be capable of producing the last run once again. Offshore, freshened since December and making his first start as a gelding, continues to train forwardly for Neil Drysdale and likely will show improvement with this drop into the first-level allowance ranks. Sharp Samurai tries grass for the first time and exits a very tough race; the speed figure he earned two races back when breaking his maiden charts very well in this spot.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B

Use: 2-Anechoic; 6-Vow’s Son

Anechoic has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle and removes blinkers as well, so we’re expecting a huge effort from this Adam Kitchingman-trained colt, especially with the class drop from $100,000 claiming to the $30,000 level. Drawn comfortably inside, the son of Mineshaft looks like a strong gate-to-wire candidate. Vow’s Son also has the blinkers-off angle working for him while dropping out of straight maiden company and seems sure to improve a bunch in this league. We’re expecting the son of Broken Vow to draft into an ideal stalking position and have every chance. We’ll use both in our rolling exotic while slightly preferring Anechoic on top.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA) for April 6, 2017

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