The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Saturday, April 29, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Starlite Style; 9-Lady Acclamation; 10-My Aunt Tillie
Starlite Style is an 11-race maiden and has failed in each of her last three starts despite leaving at less than even money in all three of those starts. She is the poster girl for burning money, yet with the switch to leading rider Flavien Prat she could easily break through and, in fact, might even wind up going favored yet again. My Aunt Tillie, in the money in her last pair and exiting the same race as Starlite Style, must leave from an extreme outside post but if she can manage to get over a secure a decent trip she should at least land in the frame once again. Lady Acclamation has trained decently for Kenny Black and certainly is bred to like turf. She’s a newcomer definitely worth considering in rolling exotic play.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Single: 3-Mystical Image
Mystical Image, away since early February and dropping into a $20,000 claimer, vans down from Northern California and switches to Rafael Bejarano, so if the Ed Moger, Jr.-trained filly produces her best effort she should be able to handle this modest task. She owns more than enough early speed to take control early and if she gets away with a soft trip up front she’s likely to dominate from start to finish. At 3-1 on the morning line she offers value both in the straight pool and as a rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Gato Dolce; 9-Ralph Jacobs
The third race is a bottom-rung maiden claiming abbreviated sprint that is ripe to be won by a first-timer. Ralph Jacobs fits the bill. The son of Artie Schiller has trained better than his workout clockings would indicate and if can transfer his a.m. ability to the afternoon he could pop at first asking at a nice price (he’ 6-1 on the morning line). The barn doesn’t win very often with debut runners but this gelding could prove to be the exception to the rule. Gato Dolce has failed in three straight races as the favorite and certainly isn’t one to trust, yet once again looks the best of the known element. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but press heavily on top keying Ralph Jacobs.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Goseecal; 6-Scandal; 11-Ribbon of Jewels
Older maiden fillies and mares meet over a mile on turf in the fourth race. It’s a fairly wide-open affair requiring a spread; we’ll use three and hope to get by. Goseecal removes blinkers for the first time after being nosed out in a similar event over this course and distance earlier this month. She clearly won’t have to improve much to win, but as a 10-race maiden she’s not all that easy to count on. Scandal, second in her last four starts, actually finished first in a turf miler about two years ago but was disqualified, so she’s still trying to earn her diploma. She’ll get there one of these days, maybe today. Ribbon of Jewels, a respectable fourth (beaten less than two lengths) in her debut down the hill, stretches out for trainer Jeff Bonde but must leave from a far outside post. A bullet three-furlong blowout just four days ago indicates the daughter of Distorted Humor is doing well and likely to improve, so at 10-1 on the morning line she’s worth tossing in as well.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Colonist; 5-Bronze Age
A strong field of first-level allowance middle distance 3-year-olds occupies the fifth race. Colonist looked to be quite promising when winning his maiden over a mile on this main track earlier this month; the son of Pioneerof the Nile stalked the pace and then took over to draw away with authority while earning an impressive speed figure. With another forward move today the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained colt should score right back. Bronze Age graduated with a monster number two races back, a performance that earned him the favorite’s role in the Sunland Derby. However, the Bob Baffert-trained colt stumbled badly at the start, flashed brief speed and then stopped in a race that was not a reflection of his true ability. It remains to be seen whether he’s a need-the-lead type (we suspect he is), but if he can establish the pace today without being used hard he should carry the field a long way. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics but the press strongly keying Colonist on top.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Carulli; 6-Woodstock Memory; 7-Unbridled Rocket
The sixth race kicks off the late-Pick 4. Carulli stretches out again and has had success two-turning in the past. Now in the Kristin Mulhall barn, the Cee’s Tizzy gelding might find himself on the front end today and if he can shake loose early he may get brave and be tough to catch. Unbridled Rocket missed by a head in a similar middle distance restricted $12,500 affair in late March, has trained well since (including a bullet blowout five days ago) and should fire his best shot for the always-solid Jack Carava/Martin Pedroza team. Yes, he’s 1-for-21 lifetime with 11 seconds and thirds, but in his last start the son of Old Fashioned was more than six clear of the others so perhaps he’s sitting on a win. Woodstock Memory looked decent beating a bottom-rung maiden-claiming field three weeks ago with an okay number, so he should be competitive right back despite the class hike. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics – if you find the need to go deeper go right head – while slightly preferring Carulli on top.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Perfectly Majestic; 3-Bolo; 5-Fabozzi
The Thunder Road Stakes is carded as the seventh race; it’s a difficult affair that may be determined by whether Bolo shows up with anything close to his best race. Beaten as the favorite when a disappointing ninth of 11 in the Makers Mark S.-G1 at Keeneland two weeks ago, he returns to the West Coast and is wheeled back on short rest in this Grade 3 affair that should be well within his capabilities. However, the son of Temple City has a history of failing when favored, and he’s very likely to be favored today. We’ll use him, but not single him. Perfectly Majestic, nosed out in the Joe Hernandez Stakes down the hillside course in early March, is a solid fit on speed figures but is zero-for-11 at this one mile trip, though he has won at a mile and one-sixteenth and at nine furlongs. With some help up front and clear sailing through the lane, the Bob Hess-trained gelding will be heard from in the final furlong. Fabozzi is unproven in graded stakes company but he’s improving with racing, a solid fit on speed figures, and has the kind of tactical speed that should give him every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. At 6-1 on the morning line the Mark Glatt-trained gelding may offer the best value in the field.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Honor and Courage; 5-Principal Bob; 7-Hollywood Strike
The eighth race is a maiden special weight miler that appears to be a bit stronger than par. Honor and Courage is overdue for a win and may have found a field he can handle. The son of Unbridled’s Song, second in his last pair with strong speed figures, continues to impress in the morning, gets a big break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman, and could very well establish the running from his inside draw and never look back. Principal Bob earned a career top speed figure when a respectable fourth in a similar race in late March and with another step forward today could be dangerous from off the pace. The son of Flower Alley makes a favorable rider switch to Tyler Baze. Hollywood Strike, second in his last pair but having every chance in both, should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position. His speed figures continue to gradually rise, so despite being a seven-race maiden he may not have shown his best stuff just yet.
RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Buymeabond; 5-Brandothebartender; 10-Rye Patch
The finale is an entry-level turf miler with three main contenders. Brandothebartender should have enough pace in here to compliment his late-running style and with good racing luck figures to be along in time. He came against the grain (slow splits) in his most recent outing and did quite well to finish as close as he did (fourth, beaten a length. Kent Desormeaux knows him well and stays aboard. Buymeabond is another late-runner with a good look. He’s a first-off-the-claim for Hollendorfer (27% with a flat-bet profit), switches to Corey Nakatani, and with 12 career wins on his resume the seven year old gelding certainly knows where the wire is. Rye Patch returns to his claim level, shortens to a mile and tries to get back on track after failing in his last three starts as the favorite, most recently up north in an all-weather affair. He’s always been best on the front end but is hooking other speed today (Terzetto), so we’ll use him but not necessarily trust him.
Saturday, April 29, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: X
RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Animal Posse
RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Ackeret; 6-Tug of War
RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Storm Team; 9-El Talento
RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Hard Study; 4-River Dale; 6-Admiral Blue
RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Runaway Posse; 6-Tricked Up
RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Barbie On a Budget; 2-Sunset Ridge; 6-Downtown At Noon
RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Disco Partner; 8-Calgary Cat
RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Carnasie Kid; 12-Aktabantay