Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel, CD) for May 5, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, May 5, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Dissension; 4-Little Bit Lovely; 8-Vanlose Stairway

The Friday opener looks like a rerun of a race on April 1 for $25,000, with several of the major contenders moving up a notch to the $32,000 level. Little Bit Lovely won that race last month while on the pace throughout, and looks likely to enjoy a similar trip today in a race lacking in zip. Dissension, first off the claim for Peter Miller (34% with a strong flat-bet profit with this angle), has every right to move forward after finishing a solid third in the aforementioned affair. She’ll be doing her best work from off the pace. Vanlose Stairway, fifth behind Little Bit Lovely, moves to the Bill Spawr barn via a claim and switches to Tyler Baze. She’s another that could easily step forward. With too many question marks, we’ll use all three in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Individual Design

Low-level claiming filly and mare milers meet in the second race, with Individual Design certain to be a short-priced favorite. She moves up a rung to the $8,000 level after demolishing a bottom-of-the-barrel field last month and anything close to that effort makes her a winner right back. Let’s use her as a no-value rolling exotic single and await more lucrative wagering opportunities later in the day.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Bona Fide Image; 7-My Heart Is Yours

The third race is an extended sprint for maiden $20,000 fillies and mares. Bona Fide Image drops to the bottom after a pair of solid in-the-frame efforts vs. maiden $30,000 foes. She’s a solid fit on speed figures and should appreciate today’s extra half-furlong. However, at 6/5 on the morning line there’s not a whole lot we can do with her. My Heart Is Yours returns off a nine-month layoff for a clever outfit and is very likely better than her debut effort vs. tougher indicates. The works are moderate, but that’s typical for the Steve Miyadi barn. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Lambo Luxx; 6-Juansagain

 The Pick-6 begins in the fourth race, a seven furlong $10,000 claimer for horses that have not won a race this year. Juansagain has had only one outing so far this year and didn’t run badly off a more than one year layoff. The Richard Baltas-trained gelding flashed good speed vs. open company before weakening and figures to be fitter and stronger against this restricted group. We’re expecting him to be the controlling speed. Lambo Luxx, third in his last pair in much tougher entry-level state-bred allowance company, drops for the money run and should have the proper stalking style for seven furlongs. All three of his career victories have been accomplished over the Santa Anita main track and promising bug boy Romans stays aboard for Jack Carava. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while preferring Juansagain on top.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 7-Getoffmyback; 8-Dream Police

Dream Police just missed at 30 cents on the dollar and as such might be hard to trust while returning to the claiming ranks, but the Baltas-trained gelding, after being given the month of April off, showed his old spark with a bullet half mile 46 2/5 seconds workout (fastest of 79) last week and appears ready to get back on the beam. He’ll have to overcome the outside draw and his record over the Santa Anita main track is an uninspiring zero-for-eight, but against this restricted (nw-2) group he seems like the most likely winner. Getoffmyback sports the always-dangerous blinkers off angle for Peter Miller while switching to dirt for his third start off a layoff and seems very likely to produce significant improvement, especially when combined with the drop in class. The son of Good Journey should draft into a good pace-stalking position and have every chance. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Spin Me a Kiss; 10-Lostintranzlation

Spin Me a Kiss was more than four clear of the rest when nailed right on the money in a similar downhill turf sprint for state-bred maiden fillies and mares in late March. She’s had a solid, steady series of works since that race (see workout) and should run at least as well and probably better today, but at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower she’s not likely to offer much wagering value. Lostintranzlation flashed speed before gradually weakening in her debut two months ago but has worked quite well since for a low profile outfit. Drawn comfortably outside and switching to Martin Pedroza, the daughter of Lucky Pulpit is worth including on a ticket or two in your rolling exotics.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Princess Dorian; 6-Table for Three; 8-Surfin’ Safari

Maiden $50,000 claiming fillies and mares occupy the seventh race over six and one-half furlongs. Table for Three returns to dirt, shows up for a tag for the first time, and may have found her friends. The daughter of Papa Clem has the popular route-to-sprint angle in her corner and speed figures that are better than par, so we’ll put her on top. Surfin’ Safari was bet like she couldn’t lose (3/5) vs. similar in her first start since November of 2014 last month but weakened under pressure and wound up third. She should be fitter today but will need to be to handle today’s extra furlong. Debuting Princess Dorian has worked okay (see workout) – at least good enough to act with this group – so we’ll include her on a few tickets as well.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Danzing Candy; 6-Accelerate

Danzing Candy showed his old speed in his recent comeback, finishing a brave third behind course specialist Stormy Liberal in the Joe Hernandez Stakes down the hillside course in early March. He’s trained very well since (see workout), stretches out to a mile and returns to the main track, all factors that make him tough to beat in this three-other-than mile affair. Accelerate is the morning line favorite at 8/5 after finishing in the frame in his last three starts, all graded stakes events, including the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile-G1 over this track and distance last fall. Freshened since finishing third in the San Antonio S.-G in February but training like he’s fit and ready (see workout), the John Sadler-trained colt should settle in the second flight and have every chance from the quarter pole home. We’ll prefer Danzing Candy on top – he should be the controlling speed – but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 1-On Draft; 8-Site Read; 10-Mission Driven

The finale is a grass grab bag for restricted $32,000 claimers. Use as many as you can afford to. The Mike McCarthy-trained Mission Driven takes a significant class drop into the claiming ranks after a few disappointing runs vs. much tougher foes. A repeat of his race before last buries this group but with just two wins from 16 career starts he’s not necessary one to count on. McCarthy has another dangerous entrant with Site Read. The Tisdejavu gelding takes a monumental drop in class after being overmatched in the San Luis Rey S.-G2 in his most recent appearance and should be able to act at this level with his best effort. He has several back numbers that are better than par for this class and his closing style might be more effective at this shorter trip with some pace up front. On Draft goes for a low percentage outfit off a $25,000 claim and is winless in seven starts over this turf course but he should enjoy a good ground-saving trip and a repeat of his last race probably lands him in the frame.

 

 

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Friday, May 5, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 10:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Street Biz; 6-Pageant Material

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​​RACE 2: Post 10:58 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Dancing All Night; 4-Tiger Eyes; 7-Malibu Bonnie

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RACE 3: Post 11:26 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Stonetacular; 5-Elate

​​​RACE 4: Post: 11:59 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 7-Maquette

​RACE 5: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Paid up Subscriber

​​​RACE 6: Post 1:17 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Honorable Duty; 9-American Freedom

​​RACE 7: Post 2:00 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Why Two; 8-Pure Sensation; 12-Green Mask

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​​​RACE 8: Post 2:53 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 2-Union Strike

RACE 9: Post 3:53 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-River Echo; 7-Tom’s d’Etat

RACE 10: Post: 5:04 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Dream Dancing; 6-Stallion Heiress; 7-Proctor’s Ledge

 

RACE 11: Post 6:12 ET.  Grade: A

Single: 4-Paradise Woods

RACE 12: Post 6:53 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Ministry; 5-Minnie Blip

RACE 13: Post: 7:23 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Rollin Smoke; 2-Saburo; 5-McCormick; 10-Bog Exchange

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Friday, May 5, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: C

Use: 3-Jeanne’s Speight; 5-Epic Lady; 6-Forres Lily

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Crea’s Bklyn Lawn; 6-Analyze Your Luck

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RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Sunday Gravy; 8-Final Discipline

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Scheme; 9-Folk Magic; 10-Wind Tartare

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​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Rubilinda

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Bustin It; 6-Saratoga Hester

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Quezon; 6-Kathryn the Wise; 9-Pretty N Cool

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Giola Stella; 6-Off Limits

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 7-Son of Oahu; 8-Dearie; 10-Snowfly

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel, CD) for May 5, 2017

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