Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel, CD) for May 6, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, May 6, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: Sir Valentine

Sir Valentine has trained like a very quick, athletic colt for Kristin Mulhall (see workout) and seems quite cranked up for a major effort first time out. He’ll have to break well from the rail to have his best chance, but if does under hustling rider Martin Pedroza, the son of Heat Shield could off extreme value (he’s 10-1 on the morning line) in a field loaded with first-time California-bred juveniles. Let’s take a shot and make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 12:33 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 7 Roy H

Roy H returned off an eight month layoff recently in a first-level downhill turf sprint and the vacation certainly did him well, as the Peter Miller-trained gelding easily handled his rivals with a career top speed figure. This was his second lifetime win and both have come over this course and distance. Since that victory the son of More Than Ready has been kept razor sharp in the morning (see workout) so we’re expecting a similar performance today, one that should be more than good enough to produce a repeat score. Drawn comfortably outside and with Edwin Maldonado staying aboard, he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single and anywhere close to his morning line of 7/2.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:10 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Cupid’s Beau; 8-Giro Candito

The third race is a weak maiden claiming sprint for sophomores that appears short on contention. Cupid’s Beau is an eight-race maiden and must leave from the rail, but anything close to his best effort should be good enough to earn him his diploma. In the money in five of his last six starts and getting a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman, the Steve Miyadi-trained gelding seems the logical top pick. Giro Candito is worth tossing in as well. Freshened since December and now in the Jeff Mullins’ barn, the Golden Gate invader will be racing on dirt for the first time and his local work tab indicates he’ll handle it just fine. The main negative is that he’s been a beaten favorite in all three career outings and clearly isn’t one to trust. Let’s try to get by using just these two but not without any great deal of confidence.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:46 PT. Grade: B

Use: 6-Rally Back; 7-Red Stich

Restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in the fourth race that offers two main contenders. Rally Back, a solid third in an open $25,000 seller last month, tackles easier today and adds blinkers for the first time. If the hood helps at all she’ll be hard to beat. Red Stich had been away since last summer but returned in good style for Mulhall and earned a career top number when runner-up in a similar spot last month. She gets an extra half-furlong to work with today and her style suggests she’ll appreciate the longer trip. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Rally Back on top.

 

RACE 5: Post 2:20 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Beau Recall; 4-Sircat Sally

Sircat Sally and Beau Recall meet again in the fifth race, the Senorita Stakes-G3, after finishing one-two in the recent China Doll Stakes over this course and distance in mid-March. ‘Sally remains undefeated in five career starts but today must pick four lbs. However, based on her morning activity since her last race (see workout), the daughter of Surf Cat should be able to shrug off the extra weight like water off her back. Beau Recall finished strongly but was unable to catch ‘Sally in the China Doll, going down by about a length, and is clearly the logical exacta partner with the favorite once again. What works against her today is the lack of speed in the field, and without anything to soften up ‘Sally, ‘Recall’s task is made that much tougher. Sircat Sally will be a short price to remain unbeaten but we’ll have a saver ticket in our rolling exotics using Beau Recall just in case.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:57 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Buckner; 5-Tiz Indy; 10-Summer Buddha

The sixth race is a split of the third race, a maiden claiming extended sprint. Buckner sports a series of useful drills at San Luis Rey Downs and may rate top billing by default, rail and all. The son of Drosselmeyer worked a quarter mile in a quick 21 2/5 seconds at the Barretts May Sale last year and finally makes it to the races a year later. If he leaves with his field, the Scott Hansen-trained colt should make his presence felt every step of the way. Another first-timer, Summer Buddha, looks a tad intriguing as well. The son of Spring At Last has shown some ability in the morning (see workout) and is drawn comfortably outside. We’ll toss him in. Tiz Indy seems the best of the known element, finishing second with a career top (but not very fast) speed figure in his most recent outing. He’s steadily improving and should be on or near the lead during the early stages, at least.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:20 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 7-Red Livy; 8-Aussie Rock Star; 10-Lyrics

The seventh is a wide-open turf sprint for older maiden fillies and mares. Let’s go with three price chances in a race that you should use as many as you can afford to in rolling exotic play. Red Livy finished sixth of 21 in her only outing as a juvenile last summer at The Curragh and then finished far back in maiden two-turn try from a poor draw in her U.S. debut last month. The Phil D’Amato-trained filly shortens to a sprint, and if she can reproduce her better-than-looked race in Ireland she absolutely can fit with these. Aussie Rock Star is a first-timer obviously bred for grass and sporting a healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs. We’re going to make an educated guess that she has some ability, and at the price she’s worth throwing in. Lyrics, from the Richard Mandella, has been a bit of a disappointment in two starts but today tries grass for the first time and could easily improve a bunch, especially from her comfortable outside draw. Her Beyer speed figure improved by 15 points between her first and second outings and with another forward move today she’ll be a major factor throughout.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:52 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Stealth Drone; 6-Revenue Virginius; 7-Avicii

Avicii was claimed back by trainer Peter Miller (always a good sign) and looks well-spotted to regain her winning form in this contentious allowance/optional claimer for fillies and mares. In the money in her last nine starts (and first or second in eight of those nine), the thoroughly genuine and consistent mare should settle in mid-pack and then exert her superiority in the lane. Stealth Drone is a first-off-the-claim for Jerry Hollendorfer (27% with a flat-bet profit with this angle) and is likely to produce a forward move, rail and all. She knows how to win and always has been partial to this main track. With good racing luck she’ll be right there. Revenue Virginius just defeated Stealth Drone when they met in a $32,000 claimer last month and she, too, goes for new connections, having been haltered by trainer Ron Ellis, the fifth time in her last six starts that she’s been claimed. Bug boy Roman, who was aboard in her win, returns and figures to have the veteran mare in the firing line throughout. Avicii gets top billing but we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics.

 

RACE 9: Post 5:22 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 9-Placido; 10-Gato Del Oro

The ninth race is a strong maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-olds featuring several well-bred first time starters. Gato Del Oro makes his debut for trainer Richard Baltas, whose record with debut runners isn’t very impressive (actually, it’s poor). However, this son of Medaglia d’Oro could prove to be the exception to the rule. A recent impressive gate work (see video) points him out as being fit and ready, and from his outside draw he’ll be given the opportunity to load last and, hopefully, break first. Drawn just inside him is the debuting Shackleford colt Placido. Obviously bred for speed and sporting a favorable work pattern that includes a bullet five furlong drill a couple of weeks ago, the Simon Callaghan-trained colt looks to have plenty of ability and should be more than fit for a big effort first crack out of the box. We’ll try to get by using just these two while preferring Gato Del Oro on top.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:52 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Bird Is the Word; 7-Sharp Samurai; 8-Bowies Hero

The Singletary Stakes, a listed affair for sophomore turf milers, goes as the 10th race. Bowies Hero went a bit stale last fall after a very impressive local debut for trainer Phil D’Amato, but after several months off he’s been looking like his old self in the morning (see workout). The son of Artie Schiller clearly can fire a big shot fresh and his best effort (either his maiden win or his victory in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf) looks good enough to beat this field. Bird Is the Word is improving with every outing and after a sharp maiden score ran even better whena troubled fourth in the Pasadena Stakes in mid-March. The son of Birdstone switches to Rafael Bejarano and will be charging in the final furlong. Sharp Samurai earned a big figure graduating over nine furlongs last month while pressing the pace throughout. Hard to say if he can be just as effective at this shorter trip but he could be if his improvement continues.

 

RACE 11: Post 6:22 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Dr. Crabby; 7-True Ranger; 10-Strong Values

The nightcap is a $12,500 claiming sprint with nothing to trust. Strong Values earned a decent figure when beating maiden claimers off a year and one-half layoff last month and is realistically spotted in this restricted (nw-2) seller. The Vann Belvoir-trained gelding doesn’t really have to improve to win; let’s just hope he doesn’t regress (as cheaper second-off-layoff runners often do). Dr. Crabby, second in his last pair, is what he is: a mid-pack runner without a true stretch kick. He’ll grind away and probably (at least) hit the board again. True Ranger should be part of the pace throughout and could stick around for a piece it as well. Best advice here is to spread as deeply as you can afford to.

 

 

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Saturday, May 5, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 10:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Seventh Te; 6-No Fault

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​​RACE 2: Post 11:01 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Donwell; 4-Awesome Saturday; 7-Salute with Honor

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RACE 3: Post 11:31 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Wabel; 7-Donegal Moon; 8-Mo Tom

​​​RACE 4: Post: 12:03 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Caviar Czar; 5-Souper Fly Over

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​RACE 5: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Forge; 11-Hockey School; 13-Adventist

​​​RACE 6: Post 1:13 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Paulassilverlining; 5-Finest City; 7-Carina Mia

​​RACE 7: Post 1:55 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Linda; 2-Miss Temple City; 6-Roca Rojo

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​​​RACE 8: Post 2:45 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Uncontested; 5-No Dozing;

RACE 9: Post 3:37 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Oscar Performance; 7-Conquest Farenheit; 10-Good Samaritan

RACE 10: Post: 4:28 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Awesome Slew; 8-El Kabeir; 13-Tom’s Ready

 

RACE 11: Post 5:25 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Divisidero; 6-Bal a Bali; 8-Beach Patrol

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​​​RACE 12: Post 6:46 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 5-Always Dreaming; 10-Gunnevera; 14-Classic Empire; 17-Irish War Cry

RACE 13: Post 7:40 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1a-Hard Scramble; 8-Rockin Rudy

RACE 14: Post: 8:10 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Souper Wish; 5-Bourbon Country; 11-Wicked Macho

 

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Saturday, May 6, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: B- (pass race if taken off turf)

Use: 3-Southside Warrior; 9-Performance Bonus

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:21 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Summer Mischief; 6-Build to Suit

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RACE 3: Post 1:52 ET. Grade: B (pass race if taken off turf)

Use: 4-Red Knight; 6-Minsky Moment

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:25 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 6-Suffused; 7-Sea Calisi

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​RACE 5: Post 2:58 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Sweetrayofsunshine

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-H Man; 3-Duquesne Whistle

​​RACE 7: Post 4:04 ET.  Grade: B+ (pass race if taken off turf)

Single: 4-Air Vice Marshal

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 7-Lucky Lotto

RACE 9: Post 5:12 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Becker’s Galaxy; 8-Papa Shot

RACE 10: Post: 5:48 ET.  Grade: X

Single: 4-Connect

 

RACE 11: Post 7:07 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Jay Gatsby; 8-Time Test; 9-Highland Sky

RACE 12: Post: 7:37 ET.  Grade: B- (pass if race taken off turf)

Use: 8-Consumerconfidence; 11-Baseline

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel, CD) for May 6, 2017

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