Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for July 1, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, July 1, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Data Central; 2-Armour Plate; 6-Greyvitos

The Saturday opener marks the first opportunity for local two-year-olds to run long and try grass, so anything goes. The three listed above all have credentials to run well under these conditions. Armour Plate has the benefit of a prior outing (and exits a strong race) so the son of Into Mischief may rate the edge for a barn that has excellent stats with second-time starters. Blinkers are added and jockey Rafael Bejarano stays, so all systems are go for this Eddie Truman-trained colt. Data Central is bred for turf on both sides of his pedigree and may be better than his modest workout times give him credit for (see workout). He’s hasn’t really been asked to show much in the a.m. by trainer Keith Desormeaux, but we have a hunch this colt has some ability. Greyvitos is a debuting Malibu Moon colt with a fairly decent series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs for trainer Adam Kitchingman. He’s hard to classify but is probably worth including on a ticket or two.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Anchor Baby; 4-Privy

Maiden claiming state-bred fillies and mares sprint five and one-half furlongs in the second race. Privy seems the obvious choice; the John Sadler-trained 3-year-old was tagged right on the wire when very well-meant in her debut last month. She sports a bullet half mile workout just a week ago for a barn that boasts superior stats with second-time starters, and with the shorter trip today the daughter of Lucky Pulpit be very hard to catch. Anchor Baby has shown some run in the morning for trainer Bob Baffert (see workout) and lands leading rider Flavien Prat, so she’s sure to attract plenty of play. We’ll prefer Privy on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Papa Papa Papa; 2-Sense of Glory; 4-Taima the Hawk

The third race is a starter’s allowance extended sprint that seems fairly wide open and requires a spread. Taima the Hawk returns to dirt for the first time since graduating over this track and distance more than a year ago; the Vann Belvoir-trained gelding has earned solid turf numbers of late and rates the edge on top while getting a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman. Papa Papa Papa, a solid runner-up in a similar affair in late May, has trained steadily since and should be set for a forward move, rail and all. The pace scenario looks soft, increasing his chances for a gate-to-wire score. Sense of Glory, a route-to-sprint play for trainer Rafael Becerra, remains protected in a sign of confidence after being claimed for $32,000 two runs back. He retains Martin Pedroza, is strong in the speed figure department, and both of his career wins have come over the Santa Anita main track. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Taima the Hawk on top.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 1-Danzing Candy; 3-Ransom the Moon

The San Carlos Stakes drew five runners but really boils down to match race. Danzing Candy will be the controlling speed and that gives him the edge over Ransom the Moon, a vastly-improved horse since arriving from Canada for trainer Phil D’Amato. ‘Candy is backing up in trip after a pair of sharp two-turn mile victories, most recently in the Lone Star Park Handicap-G2 in Texas, but he can sprint as well, especially given the lack of early speed in this field. The son of Twirling Candy continues to impress in the a.m. (see workout) and seems primed for another major effort. ‘Moon has the perfect style for this extended sprint trip and will have dead aim on his main rival from the top of the stretch to the wire. He, too, has maintained his sharp edge in the a.m. (see workout). We’ll give ‘Candy the edge but use both in our rolling exotics while otherwise passing the race.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Pound Piece; 3-Bronzino; 8-Socratical

The fifth race kicks off the Pick-6 sequence; it’s a chaotic affair with question marks galore. Bronzino was claimed by a low percentage outfit (1-for-34 in 2017); on pure form he deserves top billing but who knows if he’ll run as well as he did when trained by Doug O’Neill? Bug boy Roman most likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics but there’s a possibility that other speed will materialize and if so this gelding could be vulnerable. We’ll use him, but not trust him. Pound Piece returned off a two year layoff when a non-threatening eighth in a downhill turf sprint in mid-May; the work tab is healthy since that outing so we’re expecting the Paddy Gallagher-trained gelding to be fitter and tougher today, especially with the one-level class drop and the stretch out in trip. However, the Irish-bred hasn’t won a race since 2013. Socratical shows good recent form vs. lesser foes in Phoenix and might fit here; his numbers are okay, nothing great, but at least he looks healthy. Small ticket players may try to get by using just these three in rolling exotic play but if there’s ever a “buy” race, this is it.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Pavel; 6-Red Lightning; 8-Little Juanito

The sixth race is a stronger-than-par straight maiden extended sprint that has a number of possibilities. We’ll use three and hope to survive and advance. Red Lightning ran very well but had no visible excuse when missing as the favorite in a similar event in late May; he’s trained slow and easy since (see workout) but we’ll assume he’s fit and ready with the switch to Prat. The son of Midshipman has solid speed figures, so it should take a pretty good colt to deny him. Little Juanito flashed considerable promise last fall at Del Mar as a two-year-old; he missed by a neck to the very talented American Anthem before being stopped on and his recent works indicate he’s lost none of his speed. Low profile connections notwithstanding, the son of Exchange Rate is a “must use.” Pavel has done some good work in the a.m. for Doug O’Neill, actually besting multiple stakes winner Irap in a recent drill (see workout), so this son of Creative Cause should be included as well.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Braddock; 6-Whata Guess; 9-Vegas Vic

Maiden claiming $30,000 3-year-olds sprint six furlongs in the seventh race, the first leg of the late Pick-4. The known element looks just so-so which is why we’ll prefer a fresh face, Vegas Vic. The Phil D’Amato-trained colt is bred for speed (Cyclotron) and has looked a bit better than his average workout times give him credit for. With Roman taking the call, this colt looks like a live item for a barn that is quite capable of winning with a first-timer. Braddock seems the most dangerous of those that have raced but the Michael Pender-trained colt is dropping all the way down from the maiden $75,000 level despite finishing a close third in his most recent outing in mid-May. This is not a healthy pattern and the switch to a low percentage apprentice rider from the disadvantageous rail post position gives further concern. We’ll use him but not with any degree of confidence. Whata Guess is a first timer from the Dave Hofmans barn bred for speed and might be worth tossing in as well. A recent solo six furlong drill (see workout) wasn’t too bad.

 

RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Madame Stripes; 6-Sheeza Milky Way

We’re going to play the Wilshire Stakes under the assumption that the two committed front-runners – Juno and Enola Gray – will cancel each other out and set the race up for the closers. Sheeza Milky Way has rising speed figures and the proper style for the race; the daughter of Sidney’s Candy moves into stakes competition after a couple of sharp conditioned allowance scores and she could easily be up to the task. Rafael Bejarano will give her the patient ride she needs. Madame Stripes projects to draft into a lovely second flight, pace-stalking position and have every chance. She, too, has speed figures that continue to ascend and with another forward move the Neil Drysdale-trained mare will be tough to contain in the final furlong. If you can afford to go deeper, Juno and Enola Gray are each capable of wiring this field if the other takes back, so you may want to include both on a ticket or two in case that scenario plays out.

 

RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Tanners Pride; 3-Will Tell; 7-Touching Rainbows

The ninth race is a competitive state-bred allowance sprint over seven furlongs. Touching Rainbows looks intriguing. The son of Aragon has been away since December but returns protected in his first start for D’Amato and could easily be better than shown for his new barn. The works indicate fitness and the competition looks ordinary. Will Tell had every chance but couldn’t close the deal when runner-up in a similar spot last month, but he retains Prat, his numbers are steadily improving, and his grinding style should be effective at this trip. Tanners Pride seeks his third straight score and has numbers that fit, so he’s probably worth using on a ticket or two as well.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Topgallant; 4-Captain Ron; 6-Amazon Cry

Captain Ron finished a strong second in a similar maiden claiming downhill turf sprint last month that we rated a bit stronger than average for the level. The Speightstown colt will be making just his third career start and will be adding blinkers, so there’s definitely a reason to believe a forward move is possible. You should note the first-time-in-a-claimer angle with Amazon Cry, from the D’Amato barn. The Louisiana-bred colt has received no backing in two prior outings but will be sprinting for the first time and trains like a colt with more ability than he’s shown so far. Topgallant is a second-time starter also exiting straight maiden company and seems likely to improve a bunch in this league. This barn’s runners often step forward with a race under their belt.

 

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Saturday, July 1, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Love and Care; 8-Long Night

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:04 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Get Game; 3-Jewel Can Disco

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RACE 3: Post 2:37 ET. Grade: B

Use: 5-Makealittlelove; 6-May Flowers

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:09 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Zabaione; 5-West Hills Giant

​RACE 5: Post 3:41 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Dreans Are Pazible; 7-Blue Atlas; 10-Goodbye Brockley

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:14 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Crazy About Jazz; 5-Deltalina; 10-Mojo’s Queen

​​RACE 7: Post 4:46 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-On Leave; 7-Off Limits; 9-Conquest Babayaga

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:18 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Wicked Macho; 8-Duquesne Whistle

RACE 9: Post 5:50 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Unchained Melody; 3-My Miss Tapit; 4-Lockdown

 

RACE 10: Post 6:22 ET. Grade: B

Single: 7-Theycallhimthekid

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for July 1, 2017

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