Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 1, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, June 1, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Sly Humor; 5-G Q Covergirl

G Q Covergirl is undefeated in two starts, a runaway maiden claiming win last September at Del Mar and then an equally dominating score vs. starter’s allowance foes the following month at Santa Anita. She makes her first start since in today’s opener in another starter’s allowance sprint (she’s still eligible due to the nw-3 condition) and if she returns anywhere close to the way she left the daughter of General Quarters will extended her perfect streak to three. The Phil D’Amato barn is solid with layoff runners and on pure speed figures this Florida-bred filly is way too fast for her rivals. Sly Humor can be used on a ticket or two as a backup; the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained filly seems clearly the best of the others and could be tough if ‘Covergirl fails to reproduce last year’s form.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Scattagirl; 4-Indriya

The second race is a five-runner sprint down the hill for second-level allowance fillies and mares. Scattagirl has two previous wins over the local lawn (both routing) but can sprint as well, and a repeat of her race before last should be good enough to beat this field. She’s reunited with “win-rider” Kent Desormeaux and will be doing her best work from the dirt crossing to the wire. Indria is winless in the U.S. since being imported from Brazil and has low profile connections but a repeat of her last race – a decent runner-up try over this course and distance vs. similar – makes her the logical second choice. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics while preferring Scattagirl on top.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Estherfourfourteen; 3-Sugaratsundown; 4-Calimonco Action; 7-Spiced Perfection

The third race kicks off the Pick-6. Juvenile state-bred maiden special weight fillies meet over four and one-half furlongs with plenty of question marks, so we’ll go four deep in rolling exotic play and hope to survive and advance. Spiced Perfection flashed some zip when previewing in 10 seconds flat at the Barretts March Sale at Del Mar (see workout) and brought $50,000 at auction, a nice price for a daughter of the first crop stallion (and excellent sprinter) Smiling Tiger. She appeared a bit green in an okay three furlong drill last week (see workout) but still may be quick enough to win at first asking. Sugaratsundown flashed pretty good speed in a bullet solo gate drill on May 4 (see workout) and appears to be a major player in an unclassified field. Although she only brought the proverbial ham sandwich ($4,000) at auction, the daughter of Stormin Fever is bred to be quick on both sides of her pedigree and likely will come out running. Calimonco Action displayed decent speed without being asked in a team gate drill May 13 (see workout) and is another that we’ll toss in. And Esterfourfourteen is trained by Steve Miyadi, whose first-timers often work better than they run, so you have to use her as well. In a wide open affair, we’ll slightly prefer Spiced Perfection on top and perhaps have an extra ticket or two keying her on top.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Just Be Held; 6-Munny Spunt

The fourth race, for restricted $25,000 claiming fillies and mares at six furlongs, drew six runners including the logical top pick, Munny Spunt. A convincing score with a career top speed figure two weeks ago, she’s wheeled back on short rest by trainer Jeff Mullins, who is taking advantage of the conditions of the race that allow 3-year-olds to bypass the non-winners of two conditions. Drawn comfortably outside, the daughter of Munnings should enjoy a soft, pace-prompting trip and have every chance, though her speed figure indicate she’s no better on her best day than Just Be Held, a first-off-the-claim for Eddie Truman (24% with this angle) who switches to leading rider Flavien Prat and may be the controlling speed. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Lady Ninja; 6-Painting Corners

Maiden $50,000 claiming fillies and mares sprint down the hill in the fifth race, the first leg of the late Pick-4.   Painting Corners is considerably faster on speed figures than main contender Lady Ninja (both have had only one start) and gets a huge break in the weights with the switch to talented bug boy Roman. The Peter Miller-trained filly flashed good speed to press the pace until mid-stretch and then hung on reasonably well to be third in a better-than-par race for the level on dirt last month. A couple of nice workouts at San Luis Rey Downs since that outing gives indication that she’ll move forward, assuming she can transfer her form to turf. Lady Ninja closed a huge gap to finish a fourth (beaten seven lengths) in a promising debut vs. similar over this course and distance last month and today adds blinkers while retaining Prat. With any kind of forward move, the daughter of Majesticperfection should be a strong factor, especially if she breaks with her field today.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 4-Altaira; 5-Ultimate Game

Low-level ($8,000) claiming fillies and mares meet over six furlongs in the sixth race, with Altaira the likely choice despite low profile connections. In the money in 15 of 19 career starts and a runner-up over this track and distance vs. $6,250 foes last month, the veteran mare doesn’t catch any tougher competition despite the one-level class hike and may be the most reliable in the field. Ultimate Game has plenty of zip but stopped to a walk her in comeback vs. restricted $25,000 foes four weeks ago; she should be fitter today and this huge class drop in class could be her winning ticket. Bug boy Roman won’t be waiting around for anybody early on, but that last furlong could be quite testing. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but not with any degree of confidence, so if you can afford to spread, by all means do so.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: X

Single:  4-Edwards Going Left

Edwards Going Left earned a giant figure in easily handling starter’s allowance foes over a wet track last month, has trained extremely well since, and seems quite capable of repeating on the raise for trainer John Sadler. The lightly-raced Midnight Lute gelding has plenty of further improvement in him and doesn’t have all that much to beat in this six furlong sprint restricted to California-bred runners. However, at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he’ll offer little wagering value other than as a logical rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Swirling; 7-Like That

The finale is a split of the fifth race, a maiden claimer down the Hillside course for fillies and mares. Debuting Swirling has done enough in the a.m. to earn top billing for the Sadler barn; the daughter of Twirling appeared slightly best over recent winner Sweetwater Gal (see workout) while appearing more than capable of handling a field of this level. Based on pedigree, turf shouldn’t be an issue. We’ll put her on top but also include Like That, a maiden-to-maiden-claimer dropper from the Miller barn with a prior speed figure in her race before last that makes her a solid fit in this league.

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Thursday, June 1, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: X

Single: 7-Goodbye Brockley

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B

Single: 7-Arewehavingfunyet

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RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B

Single: 6-Lady Rullah

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Dream Man; 5-Saratoga Wildcat; 6-King of New York

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​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Palladian Bridge; 6-Royal Inheritance; 8-Ingrid

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 10-The Pooch; 11-Ornato

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-My Girl Corey/1a-Island Reward; 6-Light Up Our World; 9-Cover Song

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Jamyson’s ‘n Ginger; 5-Unchained Melody; 6-Forever Liesi

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Mobridge; 11-No Texting

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 1, 2017

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