Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 11, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, June 11, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Use: 2-Social Taboo

The Sunday opener is a starter/optional claimer for fillies and mares, with Social Taboo the likely short priced favorite and one to beat. A sharp maiden claiming winner last month and a timely claim (it would seem) by Ron Ellis, the daughter of Dominus retains Rafael Bejarano and is protected today in her first start for her new connections. On numbers she’s a standout, so let’s make her a no-value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-Passion for Papa

Passion for Papa is even money on the morning line in this bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares and looks the part on pure form. Second in a similar spot while more than five lengths clear of the rest, the daughter of Papa Clem has rising numbers in a weak race and anything close to her last race should be good enough. You can use her as a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-K Thirty Eight; 4-Big Macher

Big Macher has been away since November of 2015 but has trained like he’s fit and ready and should completely out class this state-bred sprint field if he’s anywhere close to his previous form. Yes, he hasn’t actually won since November of 2014 but he’s run very well off layoffs in the past, so we’ll use him in rolling exotic play along with K Thirty Eight, a winner of two of his last three starts against lesser foes, one on turf and the other over the main track. In a race without a whole lot of early zip, the Surf Cat should be prominent throughout and have every chance to outrun his morning line of 8-1.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-American Pastime; 6-Kimbear

American Pastime was best when beaten at 20 cents on the dollar in his last start and gets a chance to make amends today in a stronger-than-par entry-level allowance sprint. The son of Tapizar was forced to steady sharply early and lost valuable position, then took hold wide into the lane and despite being given way too much to do closed valiantly but simply ran out of room. Hopefully, he’ll break cleanly and secure a good pace-stalking position today. Kimbear, a solid runner-up behind subsequent Woody Stephens S.-G2 winner American Anthem in the Lazaro Barrera Stakes-G3 last month, is most effective as a late-running sprinter and should be heard from in the final furlong. Six furlongs might be a tad sharp for him, but on numbers he’s dangerous and from his cozy outside post the son of Temple City should have clear sailing. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with American Pastime on top.

 

 RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Madam Dancealot; 3-Kenda

The Special Goddess Stakes is a downhill turf sprint for 3-year-old fillies that may boil down to Madam Dancealot and Kenda, one-two finishers over this course and distance in a strong allowance races last month. Both employ an effective stalking style and should have every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. Kenda is lightly raced with perhaps a tad more upside and switches to leading jockey Flavien Prat, so perhaps she can turn the tables on ‘Dancealot this time around. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Reiki Baby; 5-Classy Tune

Classy Tune flashed ability in her only outing last summer at Del Mar, winding up third in a strong effort despite breaking slowly and racing wide. She returns with a solid series of drills (see workout) for Simon Callaghan and should be primed for a major effort in this extended sprint for maiden fillies and mares. At 7/2 on the morning line with leading rider Prat taking the call, the daughter of Maclean’s Music appears to offer considerable value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play. We’ll also toss in the fast-working first-timer from San Luis Rey Downs, Reiki Baby, a daughter of Curlin who is finally making it the races at age four. She’s 6-1 on the morning line and apparently can run some.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Lob City; 2-Mint Julep Taffy; 7-Dissension

The seventh race is a $20,000 claimer for fillies and mares over a mile on turf and requires a bit of a spread. We’ll go three deep and hope to survive and advance. Dissension was off poorly and then had too much to do when a non-threatening fifth in a slightly tougher spot; today with good racing luck the veteran mare should improve, especially with the break in the weights she receives with the switch to hot bog boy Evin Roman. Lob City figures to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from the rail and ran quite well over this course and distance when second for $25,000 two runs back. Mint Julep Taffy, fourth in a similar event in her first start since arriving from Phoenix last month, has room to improve and should be prominent throughout. If you feel the need to go deeper, go right ahead.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Hitters Park; 4-Getoffmyback

Restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimers sprint six and one-half furlongs in the eighth race, a logical spot for the 8/5 morning line favorite Hitters Park. The lightly-raced gelding felt the effects of a hard, taxing previous effort when fading readily to finish off the board in a starter’s allowance sprint over a wet fast track last month, but we’re expecting to see a bounce-back effort today from the Peter Miller-trained gelding. A bullet five furlong workout at San Luis Rey Downs eight days ago points him out. His stablemate Getoffmyback was almost seven lengths clear of the rest when missing in a photo vs. $12,500 foes last month while earning a career top speed figure and this raise in class is a positive sign. Hitters Park is the quicker of the two but Getoffmyback should be heard from late, so we’ll double the race in our rolling exotic play.

 

RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Miracle March; 4-Cayate; 6-Spiritual Warrior

State bred maidens sprint six furlongs in the ninth race. Spiritual Warrior (see workout) is a first-timer from the Phil D’Amato barn with a solid work tab, one that makes him dangerous for a stable whose debut runners often perform better in the afternoon than they do in the morning. This son of Acclamation brought only $4,000 at auction last year but shows up protected in a maiden special weight event in a sign of confidence. At 4-1 on the morning like he’s very intriguing.  Cayate is the one to fear most; the Kristin Mulhall-trained colt earned a nice number when second (while more than two lengths clear of the rest) in a similar affair last month and likely has further improvement in him. Miracle March flashed good speed down the hill in his debut last month before weakening late; he should be fitter today and it will be interesting to see if the son of Unusual Heat can move forward while trying dirt this time. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Spiritual Warrior on top.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 6-Madam Stripes; 7-Ticaboo; 10-Eileen’s Girl

Madam Stripes just missed to September Stars in a similar second-level allowance turf affair last month and had the form franked when ‘Stars won a stakes in her next outing. The Drysdale-trained South American import likely has further improvement in her, returns to her winning trip (a flat mile), and with even a slight forward move today should be very difficult to deny. Kent Desormeaux stays aboard and knows her well. Eileen’s Girl gets the worst of the draw but at 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth including after a nice win vs. entry-level types over this course and distance last month. She should at least hit the board. Ticaboo is the likely pacesetter and could be tough to run down if not policed. She removes blinkers (like this angle on this type of runner) and will take them as far as she can.

 

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Sunday, June 11, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Five Hearts; 4-Barrier to Entry

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: C

Use: 2-Non Finisce Mai; 3-Bileaps and Bounds; 4-Champagne Ruby; 6-Moondance Joy

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RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Desiree Clary; 3-My Impression

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B

Use: 6-W. Giles; 7-Evolution

​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Veil; 5-True Love Is Yare; 8-Time to Flirt

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: X

Single: 6-Animal Posse

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Clear N Convincing; 5-Your Secret’s Safe

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Black Tide; 11-Orino; 13-Uncle Sigh

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Vertical Oak; 4-Sadie Be Good; 6-Chalon

 

RACE 10: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 6-Source Control; 10-Brooklyn Speights; 11-Psychic Energy

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 11, 2017

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