Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 16, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, June 16, 2017

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Marq One; 6-Uber Star

The Friday opener is a maiden $50,000 claimer over a mile on turf that seems made to order for the class dropping Marq One. In too tough when seventh (beaten four lengths) in straight maiden company last time out, the Keith Desormeaux-trained gelding drops to a realistic level and seems capable of producing the last run if given the patient ride he requires. Uber Star is a nine race maiden and perhaps not one to fully trust after failing as the favorite in a similar spot last month, but a poor start in that race might be a legitimate excuse so we’ll give him a chance to make amends. He makes a trainer switch to Billy Morey, a rider switch to Corey Nakatani, and has back figures that are good enough to win. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with a very slight preference on top to Marq One.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Empress of Lov; 8-Native Jaylo; 9-Sapphire Kid; 10-Spiced Perfection

The second race is maiden juvenile sprint for state-bred fillies and looks wide open with plenty of question marks. Sapphire Kid, a daughter of Richard’s Kid which brought $60,000 as a yearling, makes her debut for Peter Miller (25% with a positive ROI with this angle) and has recorded several solid drills at San Luis Rey Downs. Let’s assume she can run some. Native Jaylo is bred for much speed (Tribal Rule) and caught the eye with a nice solo gate drill last month (see workout). She looks like a live item for trainer Jeff Bonde, who traditionally does well with first-timers. Empress of Luv overcame a troubled start to rally wide and finish with interest when runner-up in her debut last month vs. similar and has a right to improve with that effort behind her. Spiced Perfection also displayed a bit of talent when third in a photo after a less than ideal break as the choice earlier this month and is another should move forward. Any one of the four seems capable of winning, so we’ll spread the race while slightly preferring Sapphire Kid.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 3-Sheza Firstsamurai

Sheza Firstsamurai just broke her maiden for $20,000 and today shows up for $12,500 non-winners of two, so the barn isn’t protecting her but probably is just running her where she can win. If they lose her, they lose her. The Steve Miyadi-trained filly has plenty of speed and shortens to five and one-half furlongs, so if she breaks cleanly and runs back to her last start she’s a likely winner at what probably will be a shorter price than her morning line of 9/5. Let’s make her a logical rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Cono

Cono tipped his hand with an excellent runner-up effort in his debut behind the ultra-quick Sir Valentine while almost three clear of the rest, and a similar effort today should be good enough to earn him a diploma. The son of Lucky Pulpit sports a bullet 47 flat gate work since that race, so we’re expecting him to go lower than his morning line of 5/2. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-All of a Sudden; 7-Miz Strawberry Dee

All of a Sudden, freshened since February but with a healthy work pattern in recent weeks, should pick up where she left off and be tough to beat in this entry-level allowance sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. She has the proper style for this seven furlong trip and with just three prior outings probably has upside that most of the others don’t. We’ll put her on top but also include on a ticket or two Miz Strawberry Dee, a closing fourth down the hill in her local debut for winning connections but much more likely to hit the board (17 seconds and thirds in her career) than to win (4-for-36 lifetime).

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Shakti; 7-Scathing

Restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming fillies and mares meet over seven furlongs in the sixth race. Shakti drops to her lowest level ever for Miller and will be tough to beat if she can repeat the quality of her win vs. $25,000 foes two races back. This barn wins races because it runs them where they belong and this seems like the logical spot. Scathing has a prior win over the track and usually lands in the frame, so we’ll include the Vladimir Cerin-trained filly in our rolling exotics as well. She’s slower on numbers than Shakti but gets a significant break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Evin Roman and should be on or near the lead throughout.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Excessive Kid; 8-Belisarius; 9-Guggenheim

Excessive Kid is better than his last race shows and we’re expecting the Carla Gaines-trained horse to return to good form with this realistic return to the mid-grade claiming ranks. He performs best with patient handling and should get the proper ride from bug boy Roman, who needs to anchor the son of Lemon Drop Kid early and then turn him loose late. Belisarius drops into a seller for the first time and seems sure to improve for Miller. The Irish-bred gelding has never had much of a winning punch (he’s 2-for-24 with 11 seconds and thirds) but against this group he deserves a look. Guggenheim, a solid third vs. similar last month, gets an extra furlong to work with while retaining Prat and projects to be a late threat with his best effort. Both of his career victories were accomplished over this turf course.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Majestic Diva; 7-Li’l Grazen; 10-Quiet No More

The eighth race is a maiden $30,000 main track miler for sophomore fillies. Majestic Diva, in the money in her last pair with steadily rising speed figures, seems as good and may offer a bit of value at 6-1 if you can get it. A bullet half mile workout in 47 3/5 seconds gives indicates that another forward move is likely. Quiet No More must overcome the 10-hole but she’s lightly raced and improving and just finished ahead of ‘Diva in their common race May 19. The daughter of Include likely will produce another forward move today. Li’l Grazen is stretching out for the first time, gets a big weight break with the switch to Roman and will be prominent throughout. She’s also dropping into a claimer for the first time and should thoroughly enjoy the class relief.

 

RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Newsman; 6-Vigilante; 8-Royal Albert Hall

The featured ninth race is a strong second-level allowance event at a mile and one-quarter on grass, with trainer Phil D’Amato having two major bullets to fire. Vigilante missed by a head in a similar affair over this course and distance in late April and has trained steadily since. Bejarano stays aboard and should have this lightly-raced son of Tiznow doing his best work in the final furlong. Stablemate Newsman also needs to be covered up early and produced late; he found himself pressing the pace in the same race that Vigilante exits and paid the price when the real racing began from the quarter pole home. A repeat of his race before last puts him right there. Royal Albert Hall likes to run second and third much more than he likes to win but his best race is a threat so we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two as a back-up.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:30 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 1-Sally Simpson; 4-Todos Santos; 8-Furious Fire

The finale is an abbreviated sprint for maiden claiming 3-year-old fillies and looks inscrutable. We’ll go three-deep but you should include as many as you can afford to. Sally Simpson is a route-to-sprint class dropper with enough early speed to be a threat at this level. If she leaves cleanly from the rail, the Ben Cecil-trained daughter of Mineshaft might be hard to catch. Todos Santos is a second-time starter from the John Sadler barn (powerful stats with this angle) and seems likely to improve with a race under her belt. Furious Fire has been training well for her first start since last August and might be a bit better type this time around. At 12-1 on the morning line she’s worth some consideration.

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Friday, June 16, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 3:05 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Wildcat Belle; 4-Mama Joyce

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​​RACE 2: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Paz the Wine; 9-First Appeal; 11-Frosty Delay

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RACE 3: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Splashy Rise; 7-This Bird Can Sing

​​​RACE 4: Post: 4:41 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 7-Startwithsilver

​RACE 5: Post 5:13 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 3-Preziosa

​​​RACE 6: Post 5:45 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Escapade; 6-Kitty Kat Kate; 8-Amazing Belle

​​RACE 7: Post 6:17 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Portando; 10-Shamcat

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​​​RACE 8: Post 6:49 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Achnaha; 10-Taralena

RACE 9: Post 7:21 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Zeni; 7-Tres Charmant

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 16, 2017

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