Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 23, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, June 23, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Room On the Broom; 4-She’sluckythatway

The Friday opener is a $25,000 claiming miler for fillies and mares that has two main contenders, both of which have major question marks. She’sluckythisway is a first-off-the-claim for Edward Freeman (who doesn’t claim many) following a nice sprint win over a wet-fast track in early May. Away since then and not really being protected while moving up only to the $25,000 level, the daughter of Lookin At Lucky shows just one slow work at San Luis Rey Downs since then, so there may be a condition question. Room On the Broom drops to her lowest level ever after finishing a good second in a starter’s allowance race. This, too might be considered a tad suspicious. In race that might be best left alone, you can use both in rolling exotic play or simply pass the race.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Blanket of Ice; 5-Mystery Train

The second race is a $25,000 middle distance claimer for older horses, but Mystery Train is waiver protected (not eligible to be claimed) while making his start since August and his first as a gelding. The Ron Ellis-trained veteran never has had any success over the Santa Anita main track (he’s 5-0-0-0) but has been training exceptionally well for his comeback (see workout) and may be a much better type this time around.   Blanket of Ice seeks his third straight win while moving up from starter’s $16,000 company and has numbers that fit. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Mystery Train.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Run Like Rhett; 5-Papa Royale

Bottom-rung maiden claimers meet in the third race at a mile and one-sixteenth. Papa Royale is a nine-race maiden but finds his easiest spot yet and looks capable of taking advantage of the situation. The Doug O’Neill-trained gelding is solid in the speed figure department, returns to the main track, and may be along in time. Run Like Rhett has steadily rising speed figures and with another forward move today could earn his diploma. The son of Afleet Alex has little- to-no tactical speed but can grind away and be heard from late. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Cheekaboomboom; 5-Calvert Street; 7-A New Trend

The fourth race is a downhill grass event for state-bred entry-level allowance sprinters. Cheekaboomboom deserves top billing; the lightly-raced son of Unusual Heat exits a much tougher race and has the route-to-sprint angle we like so much. A repeat of his clever win over this course and distance two runs back will make him hard to beat. Calvert Street gets a big break in the weights with the switch to hot-riding bug boy Evin Roman and should be prominent throughout and have every chance. A New Trend has dangerous early speed and if he can clear without too much pressure he could take this field a long way.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Risky Factor; 2-Del Mar Event

The fifth race kicks off the Pick-6 sequence and features bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares at the abbreviated sprint distance of five furlongs. The known element doesn’t impress so let’s try a couple of fresh faces. Risky Factor is bred to win early (The Factor) and has trained well enough (see workout) to be very live against this level of competition. If she leaves cleanly from the rail she could be long gone. Delightful Event has been less impressive in her a.m. drills (see workout) but hails from a clever outfit and could be good enough to act with these. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Risky Factor.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Cute Knows Cute; 9-Fracas; Spectator

Maiden juvenile fillies meet in the sixth race over five furlongs with several fast-working contenders among the 10 starters. Fracas acts like a quick sort for Simon Callaghan, who already has won at this meeting with a debuting two-year-old, so let’s go with this daughter of first-crop sire Violence, who’s off to a quick start. Cute Knows Cute, trained by Peter Miller, is a sneaky San Luis Rey Downs shipper with some quick sorts on her resume and looks like a live item. Spectator is from the first crop of speedster Jimmy Creed and has done some good work in the morning (see workout) for Phil D’Amato and may offer a bit of value at 6-1 on the morning line despite the extreme outside draw. Let’s include all three in our rolling exotics.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-What a Ten; 5-Adios Cali

We’ll double the seventh race, an elongated starter’s allowance sprint for sophomore fillies. What a Ten failed to duplicate her dirt form when tried down the hill in her most recent start but can snap back with the return to the main track. Her maiden claiming win two runs back charts well with these, and with just three prior starts the daughter of Candy Ride has plenty of room for further improvement. Adios Cali has consistent speed figures and a good stalking style for seven furlongs; she really won’t need to improve much to beat this field. A slight edge on top goes to What a Ten so we’ll have an extra ticket or two on her in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-The Rule of King’s; 6-Clifton Beach; 9-Rafter One

The eighth race is a messy high priced maiden claimer with nothing to trust. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. The Rule of King’s was nosed out in a similar spot two races back and then was overmatched in a highly-rated straight maiden affair earlier this month. Back where he belongs today, the son of Rule should be a strong threat throughout, assuming his rail draw does him no harm. Clifton Beach returns to the main track and has numbers that are good enough to beat this field. By all rights he should produce a forward move in his second off a layoff for John Sadler; however, the barn’s stats with this angle is poor. We’ll see. Rafter One, a route-to-sprint play, lands the cozy outside draw and should draft into a soft pace-prompting position. He has figures that put him squarely in the hunt.

 

RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Queen Bee to You; 5-Golden Light; 9-Halo Darlin

California-bred entry-level allowance fillies and mares meet over a mile on turf in a very challenging ninth race. Queen Bee to You won over this course and distance in her only prior grass race two runs back and from where she’s draw the daughter of Old Topper should have every chance to repeat that performance today. Kent Desormeaux stays aboard and knows her well.   Golden Light has solid, competitive speed figures; she’s been pressing the pace and paying the price late but today might receive the patient ride she requires. If so, look out. Halo Darlin gets the worst of the draw but usually gets a piece of it and really won’t have to improve much to be a major factor.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:30 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 2-Ground Rules; 5-Monterey Shale; 9-Hot Paris Night

The nightcap is a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming miler and is another difficult affair. We’ll use three, but we suggest you go as deep as you can afford to. Monterey Shale just crushed a restricted $12,500 group by more than eight lengths and was claimed by Mark Glatt, who raises him just one level and clearly isn’t protecting him. The Hard Spun gelding can win if he turns in two alike and in fact both of his career scores have been accomplished over the Santa Anita main track. Hot Paris Night is a genuine and consistent performer from the Jerry Hollendorfer barn and has numbers that fit. He likes to lay fairly close to the pace and grind away, and given that kind of trip today should have every chance from the quarter pole home. Ground Rules was a decent runner-up in a similar affair two runs back while earning a number that makes him a definite contender against this group. He’s reunited with Desormeaux, who has won on him in the past, and should be running on late.

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Friday, June 23, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: X

Single: 2-Spring Folly

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B

Use: 4-Shadow Rider; 5-Phat Man

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RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-A Fleet Attitude; 5-Drover Crazy

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Now in a Drive

​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Five Star Bunt; 4-Collective Effort; 5-Singapore Trader

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Mizzen Max; 4-Palladian Bridge; 6-Satin Sheets

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 6-At Guard; 8-Swift One; 9-Pirellone

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-End Play; 5-Runaway Posse; 11-Seize

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Dr. Kay; 9-Stormin Maclean; 12-Real Creel

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 23, 2017

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