Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 30, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, June 30, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Sagittari; 6-Hard Arch

The Friday opener is a middle distance $40,000 maiden claimer that has two main contenders. Sagittari just finished second in a maiden $75,000 affair and drops (again) to his lowest level, not exactly a sign of confidence or a healthy pattern for a Keith Desormeaux-trained horse. However, the numbers continue to rise, so unless this son of Astrology completely falls apart, he seems more than capable of handling a field of this quality. Let’s hope he has at least one good one left. Hard Arch returns to the main track and gets a break in the weights with the switch to hot-riding bug boy Evin Roman. He’s not as fast on pure numbers as Sagittari but at least the figs are headed in the right direction and his pattern seems healthy enough. Let’s use both in our rolling exotic singles while not otherwise getting too involved.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Tiz My Love; 4-Utana

Maiden special weight fillies and mares meet over a mile in the second race. Utana seems clearly the one to beat after finishing a distant second in a fast, highly-rated affair when more than six clear of the others last month. The daughter of Curlin has strong numbers and room to improve, so the John Sherriffs-trained four-year-old should be set to earn her diploma in this, her fourth career start. However, she doesn’t quite rate “single” status due to the presence of Tiz My Love, who has many positive factors in her chart. She has the classic two-starts-and-a-stretch out angle we like in addition to a favorable jockey switch to Flavien Prat. Her numbers are rising, the added distance should be within her capabilities, and the daughter of Tiz Wonderful sports two sharp workouts since raced. Utana gets the slight not on top but you should include both in your rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Little Bit Lovely; 5-Not too Shiny

Little Bit Lovely seems well-spotted in the third race, a downhill turf sprint for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares that kicks off the pick-6. Genuine and consistent and with proven winning form over this course and distance, the veteran mare remains above her claim level in a sign of confidence for high-percentage trainer Peter Miller and catches a pace scenario that appears favorable to front-running style. Not too Shiny seems the most dangerous of the closers and with some help up front could make her presence felt again in the final furlong, just as she did when beating a slightly softer field under these conditions last month. She was unable to handle Little Bit Lovely in two previous confrontations but a favorable weight shift gives her a chance to reverse those decision. We suggest you use both in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Best Two Minutes; 5-Stoneys Mr Cruiser; 6-Where Y’at Joe Joe

The fourth race is an extended sprint for $20,000 claimers that looks fairly wide open and requires a spread. Where Y’at Joe Joe was no threat in a tough race at a slightly higher level earlier this month but this is a better spot and we expect the son of Good and Tough to snap back to good form. The Mark Glatt-trained gelding removes blinkers, switches to Tyler Baze (who got good run out of him three races back) and should find himself in a comfortable pace-stalking position. Best Two Minutes crushed a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 field last month and should be competitive right back despite moving up a notch on the claiming ladder and facing open foes. Prat stays aboard for trainer Jack Carava, who has enjoyed a highly productive season, and at this extended sprint trip the late-running son of Successful Appeal should have every chance from the quarter pole home. Stoneys Mr Cruiser, a reasonable third in the same race Where Y’at Joe Joe exits, earned a career top speed figure in doing so and with just 10 lifetime starts may have upside most of the others don’t.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Native Jaylo; 2-Two Timing Lucy; 3-Show It N Moe It

Two Timing Lucy is bred to be quick and win right now (Smiling Tiger) and hails from a barn whose maiden often run much faster than they work. This trainer/jockey combo teamed for a maiden juvenile win last week at 9-1 (Spectator) and this filly boasts a work tab that may indicate she’s similarly live and well-meant. Show It N Moe It produced a nice forward move when making her second career start last month, winding up a solid second while more than four lengths clear of the rest with a speed figure considerably stronger than the one she earned in her debut. With those two efforts behind her, the Gary Sherlock-trained filly gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman and looks clearly the most dangerous of those with experience. Native Jaylo flashed some speed before steadily weakening in her debut two weeks ago, is wheeled back quickly by trainer Jeff Bonde, and adds blinkers. If she leaves cleanly form the rail, the daughter of Tribal Rule should insure a strong early pace.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 9-Bird Is the Word

Bird Is the Word exits a pair of strong listed affairs – finishing second in the Singletary Stakes two runs back and then winding up a close fourth in the Rainbow Stakes three weeks ago – and today surfaces in an allowance event for the first time since breaking his maiden impressively over this course and distance back in January. The son of Birdstone should have plenty of pace to compliment his late-running style and gets in light with the switch to bug boy Roman. We’re expecting him to be along in time and will make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Muny Sprint; 9-Social Taboo

The seventh race is a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Social Taboo was claimed for $40,000 two races back out of a winning performance by trainer Ron Ellis and was protected when third in a starter allowance sprint earlier this month in her first start for her new connections. However, today she shows up for $25,000 in what has to be considered a suspicious class drop. A nice half move workout last week is positive sign, so perhaps Ellis is merely dropping her trying to steal a purse. The daughter of Dominus lands the cozy outside post, switches to Baze, and is clearly fast enough to win based on speed figures. Muny Sprint has won three of her last four starts in sharp fashion with rising numbers and qualifies for this conditioned claimer because she’s a 3-year-old facing older. She has excellent tactical speed but doesn’t need the lead to win and seems likely to fire another big shot for red hot Jeff Mullins barn. Let’s try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Gee Street; 2-Christiana’s Song; 6-Christy Jackson

The nightcap is a fairly competitive grass event for maiden-claiming state-bred fillies and mares over a mile. Gee Street, a strong runner-up in a similar affair in mid-May, projects to run at least as well today and perhaps better from her good inside post. She has winning connections (Baltas/Nakatani) and earned a career top number in her most recent outing. Christiana’s Song exits a much stronger straight maiden affair and really won’t have to improve much after finishing fourth in her first two career starts. The Ellis-trained daughter of Thorn Song retains Joe Talamo and will be tough if she can produce another forward move. Christy Jackson returns to the maiden $50,000 ranks and is stretching out for the first time; she has finished in the frame in all four career starts, retains Baze, and seems likely to pose a threat from off the pace. Let’s put Gee Street slightly on top but use all three in rolling exotic play.

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Friday, June 30, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 3:05 ET. Grade: X

Single: 5-Straightaway May

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​​RACE 2: Post 3:41 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 4-Little Miss Amy; 6-Talkn Til Midnight; 7-Stormy Alexis

RACE 3: Post 4:14 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Vasilika; 5-Lightning Dove; 7-Wonderful Savvy

​​​RACE 4: Post: 4:46 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Going Strong; 6-Fielding Gold

​RACE 5: Post 5:18 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 7-Homeland Security

​​​RACE 6: Post 5:50 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Itsinthestars; 4-Pinchbeck; 6-Belle of the Spa

​​RACE 7: Post 6:22 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Dancing All Night; 6-Divine Miss Grey; 7-Stormy’s Song

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​​​RACE 8: Post 6:54 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Converge; 7-Hello Don Julio; 9-Call Provision

RACE 9: Post 7:24 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Final Flurry; 5-Lion in Wait

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 30, 2017

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