Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 4, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, June 4, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Woodstock Memory; 7-Monterey Shale

The Sunday opener is a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimer over a mile that offers two main contenders. Monterey Shale has been quite busy of late; this will be his fourth start in a little more than a month. His numbers continue to rise steadily and with another forward move the Gary Stute-trained gelding should be the one to beat. Fourth vs. tougher in his most recent start, the son of Hard Spun retains Rafael Bejarano but will need to avoid losing ground from his outside draw. Woodstock Memory is racing in good form, should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip, and catches a field without too much early speed. He should be on or near the lead throughout. In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Queen Laila

Queen Laila broke her maiden impressively at first asking with a strong speed figure and then moved forward to finish a better-than-looked fourth in the Angel Flight Stakes last month. She shortens up a furlong while dropping into a first-level allowance race, adds blinkers, and should be a short price to regain her winning form while being reunited with “win rider” Bejarano. Let’s make her a “no value” rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Cannonball Comin; 5-Ministertomyheart; 7-Big Boy Candy

The third race is a maiden claimer for juveniles with nothing but question marks to work with. We’ll go three deep while focusing on winning barns; if you need to use more go right ahead. Cannonball Comin is a Bay Area shipper from a clever outfit with a useful work tab that should have him fit and ready. With Bejarano landing the mount, the son of Congrats looks like a live item. Ministertomyheart hasn’t done anything particularly noteworthy in the a.m. but most maidens from the Steve Miyadi barn run better than they work, so we’ll toss him in. Big Boy Candy is a San Luis Rey Downs shipper from the Peter Miller barn, so anything’s possible. The stable has a terrific record with debut runners so we’ll make an educated guess that this son of Twirling Candy can run some.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Single: 3-Eichel

The Pick-6 begins in the fourth race, a downhill turf sprint for $40,000 claiming 3-year-olds. Eichel seems well-placed for a major effort, so let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single. The son of Ministers Wild Cat exits a series of tougher races and earned a career top speed figure when a sharp third in a state-bred allowance race over this course and distance last month. He appears most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and given that type of ride he should be able to produce the last run, though at 9/5 on the morning line and liable to go lower he won’t offer all that much wagering value in the straight pool.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 1-Cherubin

Cherubin makes his first start since November and has been training like his old self for Phil D’Amato (see workout). Once much better than these, the son of Henny Hughes is especially fond of the Santa Anita main track and it’s worth nothing that he won off a similar layoff a couple of years ago. With a clean break and a trouble-free journey, the veteran gelding should handle this $25,000 claiming sprint. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Christiana’s Song; 5-Easy Song; 6-My Aunt Tillie

Maiden state-bred fillies and mares meet over a mile on turf in the first leg of the late Pick-4. Christiana’s Song broke poorly and fell far back early, caught her best stride into the lane and finished with courage to wind up fourth before galloping out past the field into the clubhouse turn. She’s bred to run long and love turf on both sides of her pedigree, so we’re expecting a major forward move today from the daughter of Thorn Song. Let’s hope she leaves with her field this time. Easy Song adds blinkers and seems certain to try gate-to-wire tactics. If she decides to settle down just a little bit, and to be truthful she doesn’t shown signs of wanting to do that in the a.m. (see workout), the Carla Gaines-trained filly will be hard to catch. My Aunt Tillie, second in her last pair, should fire another good shot and figures in the frame at the very least. Let’s use all three in rolling exotic play and then press a bit with Christiana’s Song on top.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use:  4-Coppa; 5-Street Surrender

Street Surrender vans down from the Bay Area following a series of excellent races both on the all-weather and grass, but she can handle the dirt as well, so the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained filly looks like the one to beat in the San Lucia Stakes, a restricted affair over a middle distance. She likes the front end but doesn’t need the lead to win, so jockey Mike Smith can assess the situation from his outside post and proceed accordingly. Coppa most likely will make the lead in her first try around two turns if so could provide ‘Surrender with a nice target. The D’Amato-trained filly really isn’t bred to improve going long, but if she’s ever going to get the trip it’ll be her first time trying it. She won her only prior start over the Santa Anita main track last year while earning a career top speed figure. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Street Surrender on top.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Evo Campo; 2-Place des Vosges; 3-September Stars

The eighth race is the Possibly Perfect Stakes for fillies and mares at 10 furlongs on grass; the inside three runners all have credentials so we’ll spread the race while preferring September Stars on top. Unbeaten in two starts since being imported from England, the daughter of Sea the Stars gets tested for class today but she should love the trip and we’re thinking the Paddy Gallagher-trained filly will producing a winning late kick. Evo Campo just won the 12-furlong Santa Barbara S.-G3 but shouldn’t be inconvenienced by this shorter trip, while Place des Vosges, the beaten choice in the Santa Barbara but a very sharp winner two runs back vs. strong allowance company, certainly is eligible to bounce back at what we suspect will be a more comfortable distance for her.

 

RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Yellow Bonnet; 8-Bona Fide Image

The finale is a bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Yellow Bonnet is considerably faster on speed figures that her foes and really shouldn’t miss this chance to earn her diploma. However, at 6/5 on the morning line there’s not a whole lot we can do with her. Bona Fide Image might be worth a saver ticket or two in rolling exotic play; the Bill Spawr-trained filly has hit the board in her last three and will be tough if ‘Bonnet, for whatever reason, doesn’t fire.

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Thursday, June 1, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Spun Copper; 5-Sweetrayofsunshine

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Madame Ambassador; 4-Pana Elianne

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RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: X

Single: 4-Tombelaine

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Fiscal Discipline; 8-Rare Gem

​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Play Big; 5-American Pioneer; 10-Lifelong Dreamer

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Dancing All Night

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-I Get Smooth; 5-Cinderela El Crome

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Table for Six; 4-About That Base; 12-Amazing Anne

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Skeet Shot; 9-Source Control

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for June 4, 2017

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