Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel, Kee) for April 28, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, April 28, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Newsman; 5-Liam the Charmer

The Friday opener drew just five runners for a second-level, 10-furlong turf event. Liam the Charmer exits a much tough race and drops for the money run. Both of his career victories were accomplished over this turf course and he’s also a perfect one-for-one at this mile and one-quarter distance. Newsman was sharp in victory when beating an entry-level allowance group earlier this month and today’s extra furlong seems well within his range. Liam the Charm is 6/5 on the morning line and the obvious top pick but we’ll include Newsman in our rolling exotics on at least a ticket or two.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-Hot Blooded Girl

Hot Blooded Girl ran much better than the line will show in her debut, has returned to train in exceptional fashion, and appears to be a very bright prospect for trainer Bob Baffert. The daughter of Tapit doesn’t have a whole lot to fear in this one mile, five-runner event and looks every bit of an odd-son favorite on paper. Let’s make her a no-value rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Gemini Journey; 3-Adios Cali

The pick-6 begins with the third race, a $40,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-old fillies. Adios Cali shows up in a seller for the first time and looks likely to take advantage of the class drop. The Peter Miller-trained daughter of Adios Charlie wins if she runs back to her race-before-last, a solid runner-up effort over this track and distance vs. first-level state-bred foes. Gemini Journey earned a strong number when winning a starter’s allowance dash last month but was no factor when sent long on the lawn in her most recent start. Under these conditions, the Doug O’Neill-trained filly is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Dr. Troutman; 6-Heat

Dr. Troutman has two very good races on turf, and five mediocre outings on dirt. He’s back on his preferred surface today and seems quite capable of returning to his best form in this state-bred, first-level allowance miler. The son of Vronsky likes to settle and produce a strong late kick and given that type of ride from Martin Pedroza can be along in time. Anything close to his morning line of 10-1 can be considered extreme value. Heat is razor sharp, having finished no worse than second in his last five starts. However, the evidence suggests he’s much better sprinting than routing. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Dr. Troutman.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-La Galy; 5-No Name Just Fame

The fifth race is a bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares. La Galy is 6/5 on the morning line by default; her price is a function of a lack of depth in the field rather than anything she’s accomplished so far on the racetrack. Away since September but with a string of solid workouts at Los Alamitos, she has low profile connections but speed figures that make her the logical top pick. No Name Just Fame exits straight maiden company and at this low level should be able to make her presence felt. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 7-Passed by Paul

Passed by Paul returns on short rest (six days) and lays over this field if he doesn’t regress. The Colonel John gelding actually “won” a race two back but was disqualified, and in his most recent outing the Doug O’Neill-trained sophomore had to settle for second as the favorite while still earning a pretty good speed figure for the level. He offers absolutely no value at 4/5 on the morning line but you can use him as a rolling exotic single (or simply pass the race)

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Golden Light; 3-Tiz Adore; 6-Moonless Sky

The seventh race is a competitive starter’s allowance turf miler that requires a bit of a spread in rolling exotic play. Golden Light is winless in six starts over the Santa Anita turf course but has hit the board four times. Drawn comfortably inside, the James Cassidy-trained mare projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, pace-stalking trip. Tiz Adore has a prior win over the course and figures that fit, so the John Shirreffs-trained daughter of Tiznow must be considered a major player. Moonless Sky broke her maiden in clever style in her West Coast debut after flashing some ability in Florida and has every right to produce a forward move off that effort. She seems most effective when held up early and allowed to produce a late kick. Let’s try to get by using just these three while slightly preferring Golden Light on top.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Spanish Hombre; 3-Bolita Boyz; 4-Dr. Dorr

First-level allowance sprinters meet at six and one-half furlongs in the eighth race. Dr. Dorr appeared a bit rusty (and didn’t enjoy the best of trips, either) when unplaced in a similar event earlier this month but we’re expecting the Baffert-trained colt to move forward significantly today. Rafael Bejarano stays aboard and should have this son of Looking At Lucky doing his best work in the final furlong. With a decent pace up front and clear sailing through the lane, he can be along in time. Spanish Hombre is back sprinting on the dirt and his race before last charts well in this affair. He’s another that should be running on late. Bolita Boyz is strong in the speed figure department and looks tough right back for new trainer Kristin Mulhall after a game score in a $32,000 claimer last month. Leading rider Flavien Prat knows him well and stays aboard. Let’s give Dr. Dorr the edge on top while using all three in our rolling exotics.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Odyssey Explorer; 5-Marq One; 6-Fregosi

The finale is a maiden $75,000 claimer over nine furlongs on turf that looks fairly wide open. Use as many as you can afford to. Marq One has been facing tougher of late and should improve with the drop from straight maiden company. He’s kind of a one-paced grinder but at this distance against this group he’s a major player for the Desormeaux brothers. Odyssey Explorer, a solid runner-up vs. similar over a mile earlier this month, should appreciate today’s extra furlong and seems likely to produce a forward move. The same can be said for Fregosi, a lightly-raced gelding with a bit more tactical speed than he was allowed to show last time. Tyler Baze stays aboard and may ride him a bit more aggressively during the early stages this time.

 

 

KEENELAND

Friday, April 28, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:05 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Internet Success; 3-Leroi’s Thrill

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​​RACE 2: Post 1:39 ET. Grade: X

Single: 6-Buy Low Sell High

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RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Special Jo; 6-Ice Cream Truck

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:45 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 8-Reward’s Girl; 9-Soaring Now

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​RACE 5: Post 3:18 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Oh So Terrible; 7-Game Factor

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:51 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Bajan Cash; 3-Lifelong Dreamer; 5-Got It

​​RACE 7: Post 4:24 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 6-Flower Valley; 7-Private Client; 11-Lilly’s Dream

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​​​RACE 8: Post 4:57 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Fleetway; 7-Enduring Honor

RACE 9: Post 5:30 ET.  Grade: B

Single: 4-Earring

RACE 10: Post: 6:03 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Silver Defense; 4-Shirl’s Ready; 6-My Man Jax

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Friday, April 28, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: X

Single: 6-Thebigfundamental

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 6-Set the Trappe; 7-Open Bar; 8-Saratoga Mischief

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RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Mineralogy; 2-Mr. Dougie Fresh

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 6-Wondermeister; 8-Bob

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​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Praetereo; 4-Mills; 5-Match Up

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Shimmering Moon; 6-Fabulous Lady; 10-Catcher in the Sky

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Rumble Doll; 11-Cover Song; 12-Thundering Sky

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Marriedtothemusic; 3-Rectify; 9-Sudden Surprise

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Dream a Little; 10-Silly Sister; 12-Leah’s Dream

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel, Kee) for April 28, 2017

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