Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for May 11, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, May 11, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 7-Pellucid

Pellucid encountered a nightmarish trip when fourth in a similar spot in her U.S. debut last month and probably will be a short priced favorite today with the switch to Flavien Prat from a cozy outside post. The lightly-raced sophomore filly sports a bullet half mile drill since raced (see workout) to indicate a significant forward move is likely. She may wind up being too short to play in the straight pool but we can use her as a rolling exotic single.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Sheswildnfree; 4-Paschalitsa

Paschalitsa returns to her proper level in this restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming main track miler for fillies and mares and is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite in the five-runner field. She exits a much tougher race (where she earned a career top speed figure) and is back on the main track, so all systems are go. However, she probably won’t offer much in the way of wagering value. Sheswildnfree, just 2-for-19 lifetime but first or second in five of eight starts over the Santa Anita main track, isn’t fast on speed figures but seems like a logical exacta partner with our top pick. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise not get too involved.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Kristi’s Copilot

Kristi’s Copilot is just 4-for-20 lifetime but three of those wins have been accomplished over the Santa Anita main track and this drop into a starter $16,000 should return the Ian Kruljac-trained gelding to winning form. The son of Lucky Pulpit exits a pair of much stronger races, but a repeat of his runaway, highly-rated win three races back makes him strictly the one to beat. He’s 4-1 on the morning line and if you can close to that, latch on. For us, he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Social Taboo; 5-Moon Kitty

Social Taboo was nosed out when very well-meant in her debut in January and though she hasn’t been out since then, the Richard Baltas-trained filly has trained like she’s fit and ready (see workout) while returning at that same maiden $40,000 level. She switches to Rafael Bejarano so we’re expecting a forward move. Moon Kitty has that always-dangerous straight maiden to maiden claiming class drop for Peter Miller (an amazing 47% with a massive ROI with this angle) and she also has better than par speed figures for the level. She’s the likely choice and one to beat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with very slight preference on top to Social Taboo.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade:

Use: 1-Fueled by Bourbon; 4-Aetearoa; 8-Yes Yes Yes

Fueled by Bourbon may have been a tad short when fourth (beaten two lengths) in a similar spot in his first race since November but he returns with blinkers on with a sharp recent five furlong work for high percentage connections and seems well-spotted for a mild surprise in this $50,000 claiming turf sprint. All three of his career victories have come down the hillside course. Aetearoa is a first-off-the-claim for trainer Phil D’Amato (20% with this angle), and three of his four career scores have been accomplished over this course and distance. He’s a fit on numbers and should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position. Yes Yes Yes, a route-to-sprint play, won under these conditions two races back and lands the comfortable outside posts. Martin Pedroza knows him well and stays aboard. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press on a few tickets keying Fueled on Bourbon.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Spicy Blonde; 6-Back Beauty

The sixth race is a $10,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares that has two main contenders. Spicy Blonde, claimed in her last pair and now in the Mike McCarthy stable, shows up for half her purchase price today so her condition must be questioned, but if she has one good one left the daughter of Speightstown will be hard to beat. She sports a healthy work pattern and numbers that are much better than par for this level. Back Beauty, a fading fifth in the same race Spicy Blonde exits, is another that should benefit greatly from the class drop and will take them on the front end for as far as she can. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: 

Use: 1-Jimmy Bouncer; 4-Nardo

Nardo was well-beaten up north with a troubled trip in his first outing since July last month, and we suspect the poor effort can be dismissed. The Mike Puype-trained gelding loves the Santa Anita main track, gets Prat, and shows a healthy, steady recent work tab (see workout). There’s some value here in the straight pool at or near his morning line of 5-1. Jimmy Bouncer has been claimed in his last pair but in both cases the claim was voided due to unsoundness. He’s back at the same level again following a sharp recent five furlong drill (which he needed to get off the vet’s list), so if he fires his bets shot he’s clearly good enough to win. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Nardo on top.

  

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 6-Sturdy One; 8-Jeremy’s Legacy

The finale is a difficult entry-level allowance turf sprint for fillies and mares. We’ll try to get by using just two, but if find the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Jeremy’s Legacy puts blinkers on for the first time and the equipment change could very well wake her up. She also has the route-to-sprint angle we like so much, retains Prat, and has speed figures that are good enough to win. Additionally, she was especially sharp in a recent drill (see workout). Sturdy One, claimed in her last pair and a clever winner over this course and distance when beating $40,000 foes last month, moves into the allowance ranks and really won’t have to improve much for new trainer Kruljac to score right back. She switches to Baze and catches a pace scenario that looks favorable to her pace-pressing style.

 

BELMONT PARK

Thursday, May 11, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 6-Street Heat; 7-Battery

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Alasaal

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RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Analyzeyurspending; 5-Wanda Fay; 10-Dreams Are Pazible

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Colonel Andy; 3-Here Comes Michael; 7-Jegos Fire

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​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Nisharora; 6-Game Girl; 7-One Penny Piece

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Mahale John; 6-Toga Challenger

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Emiliana’s Hope; 9-Silly Numbers; 10-Madam Ambassador

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 6-Big Rock; 8-Loose on the Town

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade:

Use: 6-Giant Ending; 11-Desert Affair

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for May 11, 2017

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