Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for May 21, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, May 21, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Accelerant; 5-Press Baron

The Sunday opener is an $8,000 middle distance affair that drew just five starters. Accelerant has recent numbers that fit and is overdue for a win. The veteran gelding stretches out again and should have every chance from his rail post to secure an ideal ground-saving, pace-stalking spot. Got a hunch the 10-year-old is ready to regain his winning form in a weak race for the level. Press Baron is a Bay Area shipper exiting a tougher race and should fit very nicely at this level, though he’s still seeking his first career win on dirt. A repeat of his race before last will make him the one to fear most. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Accelerant.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-Tiz No Bluff

Tiz No Bluff was scratched out of a winner’s race yesterday to take on a soft band of maiden claimers and should be odds-on to graduate. The Tiznow gelding earned a much stronger than par figure for this level last time out when a closing second and anything close to that effort today makes him a daylight winner. He’ll be too short to play straight so let’s be content to single the Ron Ellis-trained gelding in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Tizcool; 5-Utana

The third race is a maiden special weight main track router for older fillies and mares. Utana has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern that we like and the daughter of Curlin should move forward considerably after two runner-up efforts, most recently in a highly-rated event won by subsequent stakes winner Faypien. She’s 8/5 on the morning line and likely will go lower. Tizcool may be worth using on a ticket or two as a backup; the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained filly will race with blinkers after winding up a solid second in a similar affair last month. We’re expecting she’ll continue her improving pattern today.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Candy Ruler; 6-Haveiture Way

Candy Ruler graduated in good style in her second career outing last month and should be tough on the raise vs. entry-level allowance state-bred fillies and mares. Flavien Prat rides her back and should have the daughter of Twirling Candy on or near the lead throughout. Haveiture Way led throughout to beat modest maidens in her second career start a few weeks ago in gate-to-wire style; with a forward move today she could be the one ‘Ruler will have to contend with. Let’s try to get by using just these two with ‘Ruler preferred on top.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Powder; 3-Lady Bellamy; 4-Californiasummer

Maiden claiming sophomore fillies sprint six furlongs in the fifth race, an open event requiring a spread. We’ll use three and hope to get by. Powder and Lady Bellamy both are exiting straight maiden events and should improve considerably against this group; the former has more room to improve after a speed and fade effort in her only prior outing and if she can leave cleanly from the rail she should have enough zip to be a strong factor every step of the way. ‘Bellamy is a four-race maiden with the route-to-sprint angle in her corner and also is moving from turf to dirt. These should be her friends. Californiasummer is re-equipped with blinkers, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman and has back numbers that make her a strong fit. Let’s give Powder a very slight edge on top in a race that we probably should tread lightly in.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Looking At Thelake; 7-Zaffinah

We’ll double the sixth race, a nine-furlong first-level turf affair for sophomore fillies. Looking At Thelake was claimed for $50,000 out of facile score over a mile on turf last time out and earned a giant speed figure for the level. John Sadler could easily get a quick dividend with the developing daughter of Lookin At Lucky.   Zaffinah set hot splits and held way to graduate over a mile in her last outing while earning a career top speed figure. She’ll have to slow down a bit to handle today’s extra furlong but the lightly-raced Irish-bred could be hard to catch if not pressured early. We’ll prefer Zaffinah on top and have a few extra tickets keying her on top.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Runnin for Tuition; 3-Moon Kitty; 4-Southern Mischief

Expensive maiden claiming 3-year-old fillies meet at five and one-half furlongs in the seventh race. Runnin for Tuition has plenty of zip, draws the rail, and could be the quickest of the quick. In the money in both of her starts, the daughter of Hansen will take them as far as she can. Moon Kitty has been flashing good speed in straight maiden affairs before weakening; she’ll enjoy today’s class relief and should be a strong factor throughout. Southern Mischief sports the always-dangerous blinkers-off angle while also dropping from straight maiden to maiden claiming, and if that weren’t enough she’s also a route-to-sprint play. Needless to say, we’re going to toss in her. Let’s go with Runnin for Tuition slightly on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Candy Promises; 7-Madiba

Candy Promises seeks his third straight win while stretching out to a mile, and at this stage of his career he should be capable of handling the trip. The Twirling Candy gelding is quite fast on numbers and is vastly improved since joining the Bill Spawr barn via a $40,000 claim about a year ago. Madiba comes off a nice score over this track and distance and he really won’t have to improve much to win again. There should be enough pace in here to compliment his closing kick. Let’s give Candy Promises a slight edge on top but use both in rolling exotic play.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Pacific Heat; 2-Roo’s Valentine

The Fran’s Valentine Stakes for state-bred fillies and mares over a mile on turf is carded as the finale, with Pacific Heat and Roo’s Valentine the ones to beat. ‘Heat returned off a long layoff to run dynamite when second to Madame Stripes in a strong allowance event; she earned a career top number in that race and is likely to step forward with the switch to Prat. Roo’s Valentine is tough on any surface and was an excellent runner-up to Skye Diamonds in the Dream of Summer Stakes over the main track in late March. She’s trained terrific since and offers value at her morning line of 4-1.

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Sunday, May 21, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: X

Single: 2-Italian Syndicate

​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Speak Up Sailor; 5-Comet Sixty Two

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RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Souper Knight; 5-Draxhall Woods

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: X

Single: 2-Easy Way Out

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​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Believe Indeed; 4-Desert Duchess

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Brooklyn Bobby; 10-Cerise’s Prince; 12-Flyoff

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Startwithsilver; 6-Epping Forest

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Rappel; 7-Three Perfections; 11-Cloontia

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-County Club; 5-Liam’s World; 11-One Tough Angel

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for May 21, 2017

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