Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for May 25, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, May 25, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Mrs. Norris; 6-Space Cadet

The Thursday opener is a first-level allowance affair for fillies and mares over 10 furlongs on turf that drew six runners and looks fairly wide open. We’ll use two but not with any degree of confidence. Mrs. Norris is just 1-for-16 lifetime and is winless in six starts over the local lawn, but the daughter of Bernardini is a solid fit off her best race and may improve with the switch to Rafael Bejarano. From the rail she should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip in a race without any real pace. Space Cadet should be prominent throughout and rates a big look following a career top effort in a tough turf miler last month. She’s back with Kent Desormeaux (who previously won on her) and sports a recent steady, healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs to indicate she’s right on edge.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: X

Single: 5-Saudi Chroma

Saudi Chroma is short on pedigree but trained like a rocket ship at the Barretts March Sale at Del Mar, breezing a furlong in a blistering 9 4/5 seconds during the preview session. She brought $360,000 at auction and debuts for trainer Doug O’Neill in a moderate race for juvenile fillies. At 8/5 on the morning line and liable to go lower, the daughter of Lucky Pulpit probably will be too short to play in the straight pool, so let’s make her a no-value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:59 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-Te Amo Mamo

The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a below average starter’s allowance turf sprint for fillies and mares. Te Amo Mamo crushed a maiden claiming field recently to become eligible for this event and the daughter of Biondetti seems likely to score right back with anything close to that effort. The Peter Miller-trained filly most likely will go lower than her 8/5 morning line, so let’s pass the race but use her a rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:29 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Shy Carmelita; 3-Avicii

The fourth race is a second-level allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares. Avicii is genuine and consistent and has the proper style for this extended sprint trip. She should produce her typical honest effort while being re-united with Flavien Prat, who always gets good run out of her. The Miller-trained mare looks capable of producing a winning late kick. Shy Carmelita earned a career top speed figure when winning from a lesser field earlier this month. The wet fast track may have contributed to the improved performance but she’s won on dry land as well so we’ll give her full credit for the victory and give her a chance right back despite the rail post position. Avicii gets top billing but both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:01 PT. Grade: C+

Single: 5-Sheza Firstsamurai

Sheza Firstsamurai isn’t one to trust but she drops to her lowest level ever and rates the edge pretty much by default. The Steve Miyadi-trained filly, in the money in her last three but with shrinking speed figures, should be on or near the lead throughout and in a field lacking in effective closers might be able to stick around to the end. You can use her as a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:31 PT. Grade: B

Use: 6-Fishel; 7-Monterey Shale

Fishel exits a series of starter allowance races – seven to be exact – but he just hasn’t been able to break through with a win. Today he shows up in a restricted (nw-2) main track miler and may have found his friends based on a number of recent speed figures that are better than par for this level. Monterey Shale finally broke his maiden recently and did it rather nicely, though this clearly is a tougher spot. We’ll toss him in on a ticket or two but strongly prefer Fishel on top.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:01 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 6-Gigantis

Gigantis returned off a long layoff and easily handled a maiden claiming field with a good number and then came right back in a starter’s allowance sprint to do the same thing despite being forced into a heated speed duel with another sharp recent winner. He returns off a brief vacation – he earned it – and looks more than capable of continuing his winning ways in this slightly stronger starter’s dash. The Bruce Headley-trained gelding seems certain to go lower than his 8/5 morning line and most likely won’t offer any value in the straight pool, so let’s simply make him a short-price rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:31 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Fregosi; 7-Uber Star; 8-Legal Authority

The finale is a fairly wide open maiden $50,000 claiming turf router that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Legal Authority shows up for a tag while also removing blinkers, both for the first time, and the son of Distorted Humor could be tough to catch if he’s allowed to enjoy a comfortable front-running trip. Uber Star also is in a seller for the first time after being nosed out in straight maiden company month; the class drop seems a bit suspicious but if the Paddy Gallagher-trained gelding has one good one left he’ll be right there. Fregosi hasn’t progressed like we thought he might but he’ll race without blinkers for the first time while dropping in class so we’ll include him in our rolling exotic play,

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Thursday, May 25, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Goodbye Brockley; 4-Princess Peggy

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Katie Ice; 6-Missy Mouse

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RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Rarest Quality; 5-Kellybegs Captain

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 7-Paz the Wine; 10-Beautiful Nite Sky

​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade:

Pass/No Play

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade:

Pass/No Play

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Indycott; 6-Are We Not Men

​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B

Single: 6-One Last Shot

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade:

Pass/No Play

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for May 25, 2017

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