The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, May 26, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Sky Preacher; 6-Rye Patch
The Friday opener is a fairly contentious seven-runner affair over a mile on turf for $50,000 sellers. Rye Patch, first off the claim for Eddie Truman, is fresh from a fast score over this course and distance with a strong number and will be tough right back with a similar effort. However, he’s most effective on the front end or pressing the pace, and since there’s other speed in here he’ll have to earn the win. Sky Preacher, a $50,000 John Sadler claim after a win under these conditions in late March, has trained well in the interim and should benefit from what projects to be a solid pace. The Sky Mesa gelding would seem to be the most dangerous of the closers. We’ll try to get by using just these two but without a high degree of confidence, so if you find the need to go a little deeper in your rolling exotic strategy go right ahead.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Bookies Luck; 5-Run Away; 6-Honeymoonz Over
Juveniles sprint four and one-half furlongs in the second event, a race that appears to contain some nice prospects. Run Away, a $325,000 purchase at the March Barretts sale, has shown good zip in the a.m. (see workout) and looks live and cranked up. Honeymoonz Over brought $300,000 at that same Barretts Sale and the son of Congrats is another that has done some good work in the a.m. preparing for his debut (see workout). Bookies Luck failed to deliver at even money in his debut over a wet fast track but likely can do better and has the benefit of a prior run over the main competition. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Run Away on top.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Diplodocus; 7-Daddy D T; 8-Conquest Sabre Cat
The Pick-6 begins with the third race, an allowance optional claimer over a mile on turf. Diplodocus makes his first start since December for trainer Richard Baltas (21% with layoff runners) and should be plenty fit following a series of solid drills (see workout). He exits a pair of much tougher graded stakes races, has won over this course in the past, and though only 1-for-11 lifetime looks capable of producing a winning late kick. Daddy D T is another who has never been keen on winning (he’s 1-for-16) but the Sadler-trained gelding stretches out again after facing some fast company in recent turf sprints and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman. He should be on near the lead throughout. Conquest Sabre Cat found 12 furlongs out of his range and faded when it counted in his most recent outing, but his sharp maiden score two runs back over this course and distance charts well here, and with the switch to Flavien Prat the son of Kitten’s Joy must be considered a major player.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Pistol Packin Rose
Pistol Packin Rose has little to beat in this six-runner starter optional claimer for fillies and mares. The daughter of First Defence has rapidly rising speed figures and earned a career top when a solid runner-up in a fast, productive race over this course and distance last month. A strong series of drills since that race (see workout) indicates she’s ready for another forward move, and with Prat riding her back she should be either on the lead or in an ideal pace-stalking spot. Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Bloodletting has shown enough in the a.m. (see workout) to indicate he has enough speed and ability to win a soft maiden claimer, and against this band of state-bred 3-year-olds the son of Idiot Proof should be hard to handle. The Sadler barn has excellent stats with debut runners and appears to have this gelding ready to win first crack out of the box. Listed at 8-1 on the morning line (though we suspect he’ll go lower), he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Rainbow Squall; 4-Sequentially
The sixth race is a starter’s allowance down the hill that may boil down to two main contenders. Rainbow Squall has the route to sprint angle we like and earned a career top number when nosed out in as strong affair last month. Prat stays aboard the City Zip gelding and should have him in a soft pace-stalking position, ready to pounce. Sequentially is a progressive son of Forestry with a solid recent effort over the course in which he finished steadily to be third while earning a career top fig. He’ll be right there with any kind of forward move. We’ll give Rainbow Squall the edge on top and have a few extra tickets keying him in the exotics.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 4-Presidentsky; 5-Tough It Out; 7-Sudden Sam
The seventh race is a $16,000 main track claimer that screams “spread” in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three deep and hope that’s sufficient. Sudden Sam stretches out again and could be tough to catch if he can shake loose early. His only prior two-turn attempt was fairly decent and with the return to dirt the son of Tribal Rule may be as good as any. Presidentsky is a Bay Area invader with speed figures that fit and should draft into a comfortable pace stalking position. Tough It Out was a beaten choice with a lethargic effort vs. $32,000 foes last time out but could regain his best form with this three-level class drop. In a race in which nothing is trustworthy, the best advice is to use as many as you can afford to.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Blame Joe; 9-Rafter One; 10-Milhaud
The finale is another difficult affair, a high priced maiden claimer down the hill that could easily produce a surprise winner. Milhaud shows up for a tag for the first time in his second race off a long layoff and could be tough to catch. The Richard Mandella-trained gelding flashed good speed before weakening in an off-the-turfer earlier this month but should stick much better against this softer group. Rafter One, another trying maiden claimers for the first time, ran decently over this course and distance two runs back when fourth with an okay number and not much better will be needed today. Blame Joe, yet another with the maiden-to-maiden claiming angle, is a route-to-sprint play for trainer Peter Miller (27% with a strong ROI with this angle) and could easily tag the speed in his first start since being gelded. The son of Blame also gets a significant break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman. We’ll try to get by using just these three with a very slight edge on top to Blame Joe.
Friday, May 26, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Morrison; 7-Arawak
RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade:
RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1a-Barbie On a Budget; 5-Sweet August Lady
RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Thirtydaysinjune; 8-Nauti Belle
RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Gentrify; 4-Los Borrachos; 5-Sir Bond
RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Pop the Hood; 2-West Hills Giant
RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Control Group; 3-Dogtown; 5-Shadow Rider
RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-True Pleasure; 2-Double Dose; 10-Platinum Spark
RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Kantune; 14-Hard Hitter