Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for May 29, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Monday, May 29, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Candy Boss; 2-Del Mar Ann; 4-An Unusual Group

The Memorial Day opener is a downhill turf sprint for $50,000 claiming fillies and mares.  An Unusual Group, a first-off-the-claim Bay Area invader for trainer Mike Machowsky (solid stats with this angle), has the route-to-sprint maneuver that catches our eye and she could very well be most effective as a late-running sprinter at this stage of her career.  She’s trained quite well for her new connections (see workout), has a prior win over the local lawn, and seems primed for a major effort.  Candy Boss surfaces in a claimer for the first time and will appreciate the class relief.  Beaten as the choice vs. first-level allowance foes over this course and distance last month, the John Sadler-trained filly gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman and will be dangerous if she can shake loose early without undue pressure.  Del Mar Ann comes off a solid runner-up try vs. $32,000 and is double jumped in class in a sign of confidence by trainer Richard Baltas.  She’ll be doing her best work late.  We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit using An Unusual Group on top.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Single: 4-Back Beauty

Back Beauty just crushed a $10,000 group of sprinters 18 days ago, is double jumped in class by new trainer Jack Carava, and seems quite capable of repeating on the raise with a similar effort today.  The main concern is that she’s always been a need-the-lead type and is catching some inside speed today, so stalking tactics might have to be employed.  Nonetheless, we like her to score again in a race lacking in effective closers as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Girl Downstairs; 4-That’s a Lady

The third race is an allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares over a mile on the main track. Rolling exotic players should zero in Girl Downstairs and That’s A Lady.  The former, third in her last pair and freshened since mid-March, has looked quite sharp in the morning for trainer Ron Ellis (see workout) and should be set for a top try.  She can be effective on the front end or from mid-pack, so jockey Joe Talamo can play it by ear.  That’s A Lady has been knocking on the door with rising speed figures, and with another forward move today the daughter of City Zip will be heard from in the final furlong.  We’ll give Girl Downstairs a slight edge and key her on top on a few extra tickets.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Sweetwater Gal; 5-Fashion Fair; 7-American Rhiannon

The Pick-6 begins with the fourth race, a bottom-rung maiden claimer for fillies and mares at the abbreviated sprint trip of five furlongs.  Use as many as you can afford to.  Sweetwater Gal makes her first start since last September and the daughter of Sky Mesa has trained well enough (see workout) to be a strong threat in a weak field.  Her numbers from last year are better than par for this event, so we’ll make her the one to beat.  American Rhiannon, in the money in her last three starts but a bit slower on speed figures than Sweetwater Gal, is worth using as well.  She’ll be part of the pace and at this five furlong trip should make her presence felt throughout.  Fashion Fair is a first-timer bred for speed (Old Fashioned) and has worked okay for trainer Jack Carava.  She’s probably worth saving with on a ticket or two.

 

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-S Y Sky

The Melair Stakes, for state-bred 3-year-old fillies, provides S Y Sky an opportunity to make amends for her failure at 4/5 in an allowance race earlier this month.  The daughter of Grazen won the Evening Jewel Stakes in her debut sprinting but failed to get the trip when settling for second over a mile in her next outing.  Today she’ll be asked to traverse a mile and one-sixteenth and she’s no slam dunk to handle the distance, but on speed figures she’s a standout and a solid recent six furlong drill (see workout) indicates she remains on edge.  With very little value being offered, his is not a race we’re planning to participate in.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Meadowsweet; 4-Virtual Currency; 7-Ten Count Out

The sixth race is a competitive downhill turf sprint for maiden fillies and mares.  Meadowsweet, a first-timer by Smart Strike from the terrific race mare Tranquility Lake, makes her debut for trainer Cliff Sise off a string of superior workouts at San Luis Rey Downs and looks cranked up and ready to win under Mike Smith.  She’ll have to leave cleanly from the rail to have her best chance but if she does she’ll likely be hard to beat.  Ten Count Out tipped her hand with a sharp runner-up effort at 43-1 in her debut over this course and distance in early March, and if she can run back to that effort today she’ll be right there again.  Virtual Currency has recorded some fast times (see workout) leading up to her debut for David Hofmans and lands top jockey Flavien Prat.  You have to use the daughter of Wilburn somewhere on your ticket.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Hot Blooded Girl; 7-Robin’s Love; 8-Just a Little Hope

A good group of maiden sophomore fillies makes the seventh race a challenging affair.  You can make a case for at least half the field and maybe more, so this definitely is a spread affair for rolling exotic players.  Hot Blooded flopped at 20 cents on the dollar when sent two-turns in her second career start, making the running but falling apart under pressure in the final furlong.  She continues to train well for Bob Baffert (see workout), cuts back to a sprint, and deserves one more chance, rail and all.  Her debut performance was quite good.  Just a Little Hope actually finished ahead of Hot Blooded Girl in that race April 8, lacking early speed but closing with interest in a solid try.  She, too, has done good work in the morning (see workout) in the interim and likely will produce a forward move while getting an extra half-furlong to work with.  Robin’s Love is a first-timer from a barn that rarely wins with debut runners but the daughter of Smart Strike has shown enough in the a.m. (see workout) to warrant inclusion in rolling exotic play.   We’ll try to survive and advance using just these three but if you feel the needed to go deeper, go right ahead.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-B Squared; 7-Dr. Troutman; 10-Marckie’s Water

The Snow Chief Stakes is a state-bred nine furlong affair for 3-year-olds and is deep in contention.  B Squared just won a two-turn turf stakes up north in extra game fashion but will need to handle an extra furlong today, and that won’t be easy.  Still, you have to give the gelding plenty of credit (he’s a nose short of being undefeated in three starts) and he continues to impress in the morning (see workout). Dr. Troutman never really had a clear run when unplaced in a state-bred allowance event over this course last month but makes a jockey switch to Edwin Maldonado and gets an extra furlong to work with.  He’s most effective when allowed to lag and then produce one run and if given that type of rider today the son of Vronsky could pull off a major surprise.   Marckie’s Water just broke his maiden over this course and distance in good style and if he improving pattern continues (see workout) the Tribal Rule could easily outrun his odds.  He’s another that prefers to be held up early.  These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but it’s a very tough affair and you may find the need to go a bit deeper.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Surfin’ Safari; 7-Flyin Artie

The finale is a split of the fourth race, a maiden claiming five furlong sprint for fillies and mares.  Flyin Artie was best when beaten, breaking poorly to lose her best chance but then flashing excellent speed to move within range and actually loom a strong threat in mid-stretch before weakening.  We’re not crazy about the 15 day turnaround, but if she can leave with her field today, the daughter of Artie Schiller should be hard to handle.  Surfin’ Safari has displayed plenty of zip but not much stick, so she’ll greatly appreciate this shorter trip.  She’s also dropping to the bottom rung today and should stick much better today.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Flyin Artie slightly on top.

 

 

BELMONT PARK

Monday, May 29, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-The Great Samurai; 5-Light the Vow

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​​RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Fire Key; 3-Fabulous Lady; 6-Puparee

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RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 7-Giant Expectations

​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B

Use: 5-Fourstar Crook; 7-Ancient Secret

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​RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Grande Beso; 9-Questeg

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Jules N Rome; 5-Picco Uno; 11-Kathryn the Wise

​​RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-T Loves a Fight; 6-Syndergaard; 8-Sal the Turtle

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​​​RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 5-Diversify; 6-Royal Posse

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Macagone; 8-Offering Plan; 10-Kharafa

RACE 10: Post: 6:17 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Bluegrass Flag; 9-Noble Freud

 

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, Bel) for May 29, 2017

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