Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for April 1, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, April 1, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 3-Could Be Magic; 6-Like That

The Saturday opener should boil down to the two favorites in a six runner turf sprint for maiden fillies and mares. Could Be Magic was beaten when earning a career top figure over this course and distance in her last outing, has trained well since, and should run at least as well today. But at 4/5 on the morning line she offers no value. Like That, away since last June but training like she’s fit and ready, is bred to love turf (Lonhro) and hails from the Peter Miller, whose record with layoff runners is off the charts. Either one can win, so we’ll use both in our rolling exotics while otherwise passing the race.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Face of Victory

Face of Victory has displayed good speed when facing infinitely tougher company and should enjoy this massive class drop to the maiden $40,000 level. The Mike Puype-trained colt continues to look solid in his a.m. drills, so we’re expecting him to graduate but at too short of a price (he’s 6/5 on the morning line) to be concerned with. We’ll be content to make him a no-value rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Fight Thru; 7-Frac Candy

Fight Thru turns back to a sprint and looks capable of regaining his winning form in this restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claimer. The Miller-trained gelding has been first or second in four of six lifetime starts over the Santa Anita main track and has back numbers that are better than par for this level. There’s plenty of value in the straight pool at his morning line of 4-1 if you can get it. Frac Candy drops to his lowest level ever and is the logical favorite (he’s 9/5 on the morning line) from his cozy outside draw. The Bill Spawr barn has been on fire the entire meeting and this Twirling Candy gelding will be doing his best when it counts the most. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Fight Thru on top.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Atomic Rule; 4-Brandothebartender; 6-Newsman

The fourth race is a very competitive race for the level and requires a spread. Atomic Rule exits a productive race and seems well-spotted to regain his winning form. The Richard Baltas-trained gelding has excellent tactical speed and projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from his rail post position. Brandothebartender is lightly-raced (just nine starts) and can really turn it on late. With some help up front he’ll be dangerous in the final furlong. Newsman has been away since September but the workouts indicate fitness for trainer Phil D’Amato (solid stats with comebackers) and with leading rider Flavien Prat aboard this Irish-bred colt looks very much like a live item. His one prior U.S. outing last summer at Del Mar – a strong third while rallying into the teeth of slow fractions – charts very well here. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics with a very slight edge on top to Atomic Rule.

 

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Spicy Blonde; 4-Princess Ashlyn

Princess Ashlyn is a first-off-the-claim play for Miller (34% with a strong flat-bet profit) and seems highly-likely to produce a forward move after finishing a solid third vs. slightly softer foes last month. The daughter of Cyclotron figures to be on or near the lead throughout. Spicy Blonde, a $25,000 Robertino Diodoro claim in early March, is another likely to improve for a barn that has similarly strong statistics with this angle. She loves this main track (three wins) and can win on the front end or from a stalking position. Let’s try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics with a slight edge on top to Princess Ashlyn.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Mor Candy; 2-The Street Fighter; 4-Two Hail Marys

The sixth race is a competitive state-bred maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-olds. The Street Fighter has done everything required in the a.m. for trainer Bruce Headley and looks ready for a strong effort first time out. He’s a nice prospect that offers plenty of value at 8-1 on the morning line. Mor Candy is a first-timer that must leave from the rail (never ideal) but he’s shown enough in the morning to warrant consideration for a barn whose maidens often run better than they work. The stable’s go-to rider (Edwin Maldonado) takes the call.  Two Hail Marys is improving with racing and sports the “blinkers off” angle that we like so much. He shortens to six furlongs and should stick better at this trip.

 

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Conquest So True; 11-Dissension; 12-Pearl de Vere

The seventh race is a grass grab bag down the hill for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares. Use as many as you can afford to. Pearl de Vere just won at a slightly higher level over this course and distance and should be tough right back from her comfortable outside post. The Miller-trained mare is tough as nails and has hit the board in eight of 11 career starts over the local lawn. Dissension finished strongly but ran out of room when third, beaten a neck, to Pearl de Vere when they met in mid-March, and with good racing luck will be heard from again in the late stages. Conquest So True is double-jumped in class in a sign of confidence following a main track score last month by new trainer Jeff Mullins. She’s unproven on grass and a tad slow on speed figures but sports a bullet drill since raced, so improvement is likely.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B+

Use: 3-Dortmund; 5-Collected

Collected has trained in superb fashion for his first start since finishing far back in the Preakness S.-G1 last May and in his only prior start over the Santa Anita main track the Bob Baffert-trained colt won the Sham S.-G3 as a 3-year-old. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him take control early and keep on going. Dortmund flopped badly on turf so let’s toss that race out and assume he’ll bounce back with the return to dirt. However, at 6/5 on the morning line and winless since November of 2015, the son of Big Brown isn’t going to offer much in the way of wagering value. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics and then press with a few extra tickets keying Collected.

 

​​RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 6-Candy Promises; 10-Blue Anchor; 12-Junior Gilliam

The ninth race is a stronger-than-par entry-level allowance sprint. Blue Anchor, freshened since late December and training like he’s ready for a huge run, gets top billing at 8-1 on the morning line. The Mark Glatt-trained 5-year-old has several back speed figures that are better than par for this level and has been first or second in seven of 11 career starts over the Santa Anita main track. Junior Gilliam earned a career top number when beating state-bred foes over this track and distance last month and really won’t have to improve much to extend his winning streak to three. He’s most effective as a late-running sprinter and Prat fits him perfectly. Candy Promises scored impressively off a layoff when achieving a career top mark in a starter’s allowance sprint in February and that effort charts very well against this stronger group. The Spawr-trained gelding is 5-1 on the morning line and at that price you have to include him.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Maestro Dearte; 6-Lifeline

Lifeline tipped his hand with excellent debut performance in February, finishing strongly but just missing vs. similar company over this course and distance. The son of Tapit from BC Distaff winner Life is Sweet should improve with racing and distance and looks primed to graduate today. Maestro Dearte makes his racing debut in a competitive spot but he’s worked like a good thing for Peter Eurton and represents stranger danger. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth using somewhere on your ticket.

 

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Saturday, April 1, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 5-Clearly Now; 9-Weekend Hideaway

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:28 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Lover’s Key; 12-Ocean Sunrise

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RACE 3: Post 12:56 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Capital City; 4=I’m Steppin’ It Up; 6-Over the Limit

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:24 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Our Way; 3-All Included

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​RACE 5: Post 1:53 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Olorda; 4-Maquette

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:23 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 9-Fayeq; 10-Meantime

​​RACE 7: Post 2:53 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-French Quarter; 3-Bluegrass Singer

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​​​RACE 8: Post 3:23 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Scheme; 5-Happy Mesa; 8-Grizzel

RACE 9: Post 3:53 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Infinite Wisdom; 6-Lukes Alley

RACE 10: Post: 4:25 ET.  Grade: X

Single: 5-Celestine

 

RACE 11: Post: 4:57 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Tequilita; 6-Salty

 

RACE 12: Post: 5:32 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 6-Inheritthewind; 8-Dover Cliffs

 

RACE 13: Post: 6:06 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Sadler’s Joy; 3-Taghleeb; 5-Patterson Cross

 

RACE 14: Post: 6:40 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Always Dreaming; 11-Gunnevera

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for April 1, 2017

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